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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #410,721
  • Mar 3, 2015 3:45am Mar 3, 2015 3:45am
Quoting emanco
Good news and very small pop upwards. USD seems to be stronger. I locked my longs.
If look at UJ I think 119.9sh will be strong resistance.
My bias on UJ is bearish, seek to reload short.
On GU I am bullish bias.
  • #410,722
  • Mar 3, 2015 3:46am Mar 3, 2015 3:46am
IMO USD strength would remain until Friday when we have major US data which should be a make or break scenario for all USD pairs. In the meantime, unless there are any major central bank news (like AUD this morning for example), movement for all USD pairs should be limited to a range.

Reason for this is that fundamentally most traders and investors are looking at substantial data from US to justify their trades either directions, because Yellen has placed more emphasis on data. Furthermore the USD is stretched at highs now.

Would rather do light range trading and news time scalping instead of entering swing trades until Friday.

Green pips everyone! Cheers.

Edit: An example of this analysis is actually happening right now. Take USD/CAD as neutral counter and compare it with GBP/USD and GBP/CAD. Good GBP news has brought more gains on other GBP pairs than on GBP/USD. This shows that USD has strength.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #410,723
  • Mar 3, 2015 3:46am Mar 3, 2015 3:46am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi e, i would like to see up to fill my orders in the mentioned region, then big DOWN lol ...
might fill sundays gap now, gl i would not want it to break the bottom line on my chart ,, but i cant take that as a fail in case of spike to the bottom and it comes back,, so sl still below this mornings low,,
  • #410,724
  • Mar 3, 2015 3:52am Mar 3, 2015 3:52am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} might fill sundays gap now, gl i would not want it to break the bottom line on my chart ,, but i cant take that as a fail in case of spike to the bottom and it comes back,, so sl still below this mornings low,,
At least you have a position, you are not trading until you got a position ... haha ... tried to be smart on the gaps to be filled for short, but just did not happen so sidelined.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #410,725
  • Mar 3, 2015 4:06am Mar 3, 2015 4:06am
I see a rising wedge. Be cautious. It might keep falling.
  • #410,726
  • Edited 4:48am Mar 3, 2015 4:11am | Edited 4:48am
Moar down please. 1.38 would be good to place longs by the end of the year!

Short 1.53666, sl at 1.54 tp at 1.5291. Added at 1.5374 with the small spike up.
  • #410,727
  • Mar 3, 2015 4:13am Mar 3, 2015 4:13am
Maybe touch next fibo before up...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Try don't lose pants never...
  • #410,728
  • Mar 3, 2015 5:17am Mar 3, 2015 5:17am
This is what going to rule GU this week
Attached Image
  • #410,729
  • Mar 3, 2015 5:21am Mar 3, 2015 5:21am
I give it a few minutes to break down, 5-10 max. If not then it's gonna be a stalemate range between 1.5360-90.
  • #410,730
  • Mar 3, 2015 5:29am Mar 3, 2015 5:29am
Ive realised that stop losses are like sealed bids on houses ! If the guide is £150,000 then your bid should be £150,050. On stop losses if you have a round number....lets say 1.53600 this morning.......it gets hit by 0.00003 !!! SO if I'd had 1.53595 I'd still be in the game with my trade !

Damn annoying :-(
  • #410,731
  • Mar 3, 2015 5:49am Mar 3, 2015 5:49am
Quoting MarkyB
Ive realised that stop losses are like sealed bids on houses ! If the guide is 150,000 then your bid should be 150,050. On stop losses if you have a round number....lets say 1.53600 this morning.......it gets hit by 0.00003 !!! SO if I'd had 1.53595 I'd still be in the game with my trade ! Damn annoying :-(
Sometimes these moves are artificial. My broker didn't move past 1.53604 in the down move in the past 10 hours. Just check other feeds from other brokers too to confirm it's not your broker messing up.
  • #410,732
  • Mar 3, 2015 5:53am Mar 3, 2015 5:53am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Sometimes these moves are artificial. My broker didn't move past 1.53604 in the down move in the past 10 hours. Just check other feeds from other brokers too to confirm it's not your broker messing up.
Is that for real ?? (I don't doubt you) Thanks for the pointer - much appreciated.

My broker is also running a 2.2 spread on this pair which seems a little high.
  • #410,733
  • Mar 3, 2015 5:59am Mar 3, 2015 5:59am
It's not a bad spread if it is fixed. Saxo had a spread of 4 in GU and Dukascopy & Pepperstone range between 0.2-1.0 but they charge commissions on top, so approx. 1-1.8.
  • #410,734
  • Mar 3, 2015 6:03am Mar 3, 2015 6:03am
Does anyone have any details of gov Carney,s speech at 10am today please
  • #410,735
  • Mar 3, 2015 6:09am Mar 3, 2015 6:09am
To be fair it fluctuates between 2.2 and 1.8 (occasionally 1.5) and no commissions.
  • #410,736
  • Mar 3, 2015 6:11am Mar 3, 2015 6:11am
Quoting sakisf
I give it a few minutes to break down, 5-10 max. If not then it's gonna be a stalemate range between 1.5360-90.
And finally (took 30 minutes more). Now rechecking 21DMA, if it's broken next stop is 1.5345 (200EMA on the 4H), then 1.5334 (DS1), then 1.5324 (MCP) and then 1.5291. Lots of support down there
  • #410,737
  • Mar 3, 2015 6:18am Mar 3, 2015 6:18am
Quoting MarkyB
To be fair it fluctuates between 2.2 and 1.8 (occasionally 1.5) and no commissions.
carefull price might dip below the congestion on 5 min area then shoooooot up
  • #410,738
  • Mar 3, 2015 6:22am Mar 3, 2015 6:22am
Stops now at 1.5370 (BE).
  • #410,739
  • Mar 3, 2015 6:26am Mar 3, 2015 6:26am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} carefull price might dip below the congestion on 5 min area then shoooooot up
expecting 5320 to hold
Intraday only.
  • #410,740
  • Mar 3, 2015 6:31am Mar 3, 2015 6:31am
Oil up, GU down, should have been the opposite, right? So either a big shoot up (unlikely) or as soon as oil turns down GU would start breaking through supports.
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