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NFP Results....

  • #121
  • Aug 6, 2006 1:16pm Aug 6, 2006 1:16pm
Quoting SeekingLight
While it's nice that everyone is reporting their wins, I'd like to go a bit deeper into the nature of the beast....i.e.:

I have noticed twice now that before the NFP the direction of the day matched the NFP direction and the 5-10 minutes before the "official" release is out, people seem to already have a head start as the runup to the 08:30 / 14:30 my time release was already a rise of over 20 pips...


Is this normal? Does "trade the leak" work every time? Does anyone have a few years of experience? Or a few dozen NFPs maybe?

What about the whipsaw and turnaround legends, has it ever happened that a > 50 pip move suddenly jolted, stopped, turned around and went over 100 pips back again?
And if so, please provide a date when it happened and don't just state something without proof. I would love to research this before raising stakes even though the last three NFPs have all ended up with more than 50 pips profit...

Oh and also, my orders were slipped by 23 pips, isn't that insanely high? I feel a bit cheated, but it seems on non-ECN dealing-desk brokers this is normal...
These are the kind of nuances I use for opportunities Seeking Light.
B U T, counting on that strategy is a trick bag.
Sometimes it will creep one way and then reverse. The pound loves that one.
But throw in the confluence of the bad Canadian employement data from an hour earlier along with the creep and I had some more insight. Consider that general market sentiment was gonna need a blockbuster number to save the dollar and I had a resonable amount of evidence to favor the dollar short.

That's how this one went for me and I got sooooooooo paid.

Food for thought.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #122
  • Aug 6, 2006 1:40pm Aug 6, 2006 1:40pm
Quoting SeekingLight
While it's nice that everyone is reporting their wins, I'd like to go a bit deeper into the nature of the beast....i.e.:

I have noticed twice now that before the NFP the direction of the day matched the NFP direction and the 5-10 minutes before the "official" release is out, people seem to already have a head start as the runup to the 08:30 / 14:30 my time release was already a rise of over 20 pips...


Is this normal? Does "trade the leak" work every time? Does anyone have a few years of experience? Or a few dozen NFPs maybe?

What about the whipsaw and turnaround legends, has it ever happened that a > 50 pip move suddenly jolted, stopped, turned around and went over 100 pips back again?
And if so, please provide a date when it happened and don't just state something without proof. I would love to research this before raising stakes even though the last three NFPs have all ended up with more than 50 pips profit...

Oh and also, my orders were slipped by 23 pips, isn't that insanely high? I feel a bit cheated, but it seems on non-ECN dealing-desk brokers this is normal...
Check out the April 7, 2006 NFP. It was edging up for about 20 minutes before the news and then went up 37 pips right at 8:30, came back down about the same, then went back up a bit before taking a huge plunge down. You cannot count on it going the direction it's leaning. It does seem to go that direction a lot, but is definately not a sure thing. There are many more examples besides April. Just go back and look. What I've done is print out the charts for NFP going back over a year and put them in a notebook, so I can go back and look at them, make notes and devise strategy.

In my opinion the only way to safely trade NFP is by waiting for the numbers and then taking the trade. Straddling works as well, but you have to be very careful because of the whipsaws and some brokers slipping on stops during NFP and other volatile market conditions. If straddling, use a very conservative lot size.
  • #123
  • Aug 6, 2006 2:12pm Aug 6, 2006 2:12pm
Hi MM
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Thanks Alan.

Several traders in addition to you mentioned entering a long position Thursday evening, presumably based on T/A. Some traders are looking for non-news trading strategies and while your trade seems to have revolved around the news, it was entered some number of hours prior to the release thereof.

Help me make better traders of all of us (iron sharpens iron; no plastic knives here!!!)

Without divulging trade secrets, would you mind sharing in general terms the method you used or trading platform (e.g., MT 4 with a certain EA)?

Appreciate your input and big congrats on the big pips.
I wasn't going to say anything but you're doing such a fantastic job on positivity

The small trade was taken after a much bigger speculative long position got stopped out at 1.8840 from the previous day. On hindsight, I should have waited and entered at 1.8840. Lesson - One person's stoploss is another's ideal entry point!

I use Amibroker for backtesting, MT4 some live charting, fxsol and oanda for trading.

Keep up the good work

Best regards
Alan
  • #124
  • Aug 6, 2006 4:08pm Aug 6, 2006 4:08pm
lol! @ "i got soooooo paid"


i'm gonna have to steal that line from time to time
  • #125
  • Aug 6, 2006 10:09pm Aug 6, 2006 10:09pm
Quoting sknk
lol! @ "i got soooooo paid"


i'm gonna have to steal that line from time to time

And with that sknk gets the last word.

Much thanks for sharing everyone (including you flashjack and jessieblue).

Hopefully all traders, from the old rusty dustys to the who-be newbies, learned something from the information presented. Seems like the general mindset is very positive; there was a noticeable absence of broker-bashing, even by those who got slipped and requoted. Confidence is very high, but remember: pigs get fat while hogs get slaughtered.

Stay focused, remain humble, refine your system so that you develop confidence that it will produce positive pips for therein lies the potential for profits, profits, and more profits. That's your responsibility.

Finally, for us, there is no such thing as a "loss".
There are Learning Opportunities See Success.
We learn, adapt, improvise then dominate, taking what the defense gives us. Always retain that positive mindset, particularly in this business as well as in your personal life.

Time to move on .... I got sooooooooooo paid!!!! Yeah, I like that!!
  • #126
  • Aug 7, 2006 1:26am Aug 7, 2006 1:26am
Quoting SeekingLight
While it's nice that everyone is reporting their wins, I'd like to go a bit deeper into the nature of the beast....i.e.:

I have noticed twice now that before the NFP the direction of the day matched the NFP direction and the 5-10 minutes before the "official" release is out, people seem to already have a head start as the runup to the 08:30 / 14:30 my time release was already a rise of over 20 pips...


Is this normal? Does "trade the leak" work every time? Does anyone have a few years of experience? Or a few dozen NFPs maybe?

What about the whipsaw and turnaround legends, has it ever happened that a > 50 pip move suddenly jolted, stopped, turned around and went over 100 pips back again?
And if so, please provide a date when it happened and don't just state something without proof. I would love to research this before raising stakes even though the last three NFPs have all ended up with more than 50 pips profit...

Oh and also, my orders were slipped by 23 pips, isn't that insanely high? I feel a bit cheated, but it seems on non-ECN dealing-desk brokers this is normal...
If you go back and look at the data for the NFP from November '05, that's a roller coaster of joy right there (is it odd that I can vividly remember the ride that morning?). The cable and euro were creeping upwards on the suspicion of bad news, and bad news it was...but good news for dollar rates apparently. The market took a good swing upwards, and then began to plummet in the dollar's favor for something absurd like 250pips in a single two hour period.

Also, if I may chime in with my results still? I had one of those "feelings" on a hipshot of a trade, so I took it. "Let the force guide you", if you will. So I entered short on USD/JPY on a market order about two minutes before news with 10lots (mini), placed a buystop order 25 pips away for another 10 lots, and finally, another 10 lot entry order at 25 pips further away than the last one. Set them all to close at 75 pips away from the original entry. Sure enough, by the time I came back with my DrPepper, I was settled and had trouble going back to sleep gleaming with the excitement of having built a pyramid of money
  • #127
  • Aug 7, 2006 7:08am Aug 7, 2006 7:08am
hey can you guys please share with us the brokers you all use and the experience youve had on NFPs (past ones too) on these brokers. Just wanted to take the best one and the most reliable as im having trouble with FXDD in this NFP, 50 pips slippage and then the system crashed and they wont take phone orders and they're system wont come online after 25 minutes

Please give me your insights on your brokers as it will be helpful

Thank You
Ahmed
  • #128
  • Aug 7, 2006 7:55am Aug 7, 2006 7:55am
Quoting ahmedjilani
hey can you guys please share with us the brokers you all use and the experience youve had on NFPs (past ones too) on these brokers. Just wanted to take the best one and the most reliable as im having trouble with FXDD in this NFP, 50 pips slippage and then the system crashed and they wont take phone orders and they're system wont come online after 25 minutes

Please give me your insights on your brokers as it will be helpful

Thank You
Ahmed
Ahmed,

You will find opinions and information regarding brokers at the following link:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfo...read.php?t=5747

Also run a search in the forum and you will find more than a few posts regarding good and bad brokers.
  • #129
  • Aug 7, 2006 11:00am Aug 7, 2006 11:00am
Quoting ahmedjilani
hey can you guys please share with us the brokers you all use and the experience youve had on NFPs (past ones too) on these brokers. Just wanted to take the best one and the most reliable as im having trouble with FXDD in this NFP, 50 pips slippage and then the system crashed and they wont take phone orders and they're system wont come online after 25 minutes

Please give me your insights on your brokers as it will be helpful

Thank You
Ahmed
Ahmed,

You can also research in goforex.com and forexbastards.com. They have reviews and comparisons.
Pablo
  • #130
  • Last Post: Aug 8, 2006 6:44am Aug 8, 2006 6:44am
Since this came up and it's once again mostly about dealingdesk-Brokers, I'd just like to point out that ECN's would be THE alternative....

And another must read blog regarding this, fraud and general FX broker - client extortion is

http://nondealingdesk.blogspot.com/

and the forum at http://nondealingdesk.com/

These are run by a very nice journalist fella who is very much in favor of caveat emptor

I hope this isn't considered spamming! I have found the information invaluable to me and it has made my next FX trading goal not getting rich but getting enough money to switch to an ECN asap....


Cheers!
Trust price. Know yourself.
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