Quoting SeekingLightDislikedWhile it's nice that everyone is reporting their wins, I'd like to go a bit deeper into the nature of the beast....i.e.:
I have noticed twice now that before the NFP the direction of the day matched the NFP direction and the 5-10 minutes before the "official" release is out, people seem to already have a head start as the runup to the 08:30 / 14:30 my time release was already a rise of over 20 pips...
Is this normal? Does "trade the leak" work every time? Does anyone have a few years of experience? Or a few dozen NFPs maybe?
What about the whipsaw and turnaround legends, has it ever happened that a > 50 pip move suddenly jolted, stopped, turned around and went over 100 pips back again?
And if so, please provide a date when it happened and don't just state something without proof. I would love to research this before raising stakes even though the last three NFPs have all ended up with more than 50 pips profit...
Oh and also, my orders were slipped by 23 pips, isn't that insanely high? I feel a bit cheated, but it seems on non-ECN dealing-desk brokers this is normal...Ignored
B U T, counting on that strategy is a trick bag.
Sometimes it will creep one way and then reverse. The pound loves that one.
But throw in the confluence of the bad Canadian employement data from an hour earlier along with the creep and I had some more insight. Consider that general market sentiment was gonna need a blockbuster number to save the dollar and I had a resonable amount of evidence to favor the dollar short.
That's how this one went for me and I got sooooooooo paid.
Food for thought.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity