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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #601
  • Feb 25, 2015 11:31pm Feb 25, 2015 11:31pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Wow! this thread looks like a ghost town The fact that this thread got completely paralyzed makes me believe that almost everyone gave up on the idea. Personally I haven't. So if there is still some interest left I'd be more than happy to participate, if not .. then be it
Has the thread died? I think so.
Should it still be alive? Debateable. I think it's mostly run it's cycle as a thread.

I believe that there were roughly 3 types of people on this thread when it was active:
The "knowledge" seekers and workers
The skeptics and wonder-es
The clueless and greedy

The first group of people were those willing to look and learn about new ideas. These people involved you and some of the people you mentioned.
The second group wanted to see what the commotion was about. They weren't quite willing to put their back into it, but they wanted to see what the results were and if they could get a simplified version of it.
The last group is self explanatory.

As for why the thread is dead:
People in the first group ended up finding their conclusions. They either dropped it because it didn't work for them, or they think they have something. Those who think they have something, well they don't particularly want to share it in the open do they? It has the potential to make millions. Neither of them post anymore.
The second group was never willing to put in the work. Thus with the lack of sharing from the members in the first group, they stopped viewing and replying. Now they are gone as well.
The last group.. well they're still self explanatory.

Of course the group of most interest is the first. But IMO it's a difficult process to get people to explain and share their findings since they treasure it.
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #602
  • Feb 26, 2015 12:43am Feb 26, 2015 12:43am
Quoting Innate
{quote} New thread? I'm on board!!! I have been a contributor at that 'other' website and I can tell you that no one there has any beef with you Jay. Quite the opposite, people there have been trying to develop the idea further without any negative posts. However this has now unfortunately run out of steam due to the small user group and the fact TZ's ARE NOT A HOLY GRAIL, its just a way of looking at the market. You still need to understand the market dynamics behind it. Any decent trader knows that there is no holy grail. Very keen to have an...
I've been there too and Innate has some great posts over there, but still i don't use the method in my daily trading. However, I'm in for the new thread if it will be a straight forward constructive discussion.

Jay, I'm looking forward to it
  • #603
  • Feb 26, 2015 1:18am Feb 26, 2015 1:18am
Hi Fx Jay
Great to have your input on the thread, I am in the process of reading through and trying to grasp the idea, struggling at the moment though but then Iīm only half way through. Once I complete it I will hopefully contribute.
keep up the good work and lets get this thread motivated again. There are probably a lot of readers out there who like me donīt understand how to read TZ so lets start asking questions again and maybe Fxjay will help us.
  • #604
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:48am Feb 26, 2015 4:48am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Can you please explain a little more what is going on on that chart? i.e. reasons for entry , TP , and SL
on box 1 i saw Potential Top TZ so i drew box2 ,
when box 2 has passed i have a confirmed TZ,

on original TZ thread there are 2 way of using it, trade away and trade into it as of my understanding

on box 1 i have a confirmed Botton PTZ so i use that as guideline to entry
if it broke down and the price action not showing to move up again within box3 range ill pass the trade, but if it showed move up i took the trade, if in a set period time its not reaching the target i close


as of TP and SL it just a discretation

the problem is the potensial bottom TZ (box2) in the making on that chart, so now i already close my position on small profit
Closer To Dream
  • #605
  • Feb 26, 2015 5:49am Feb 26, 2015 5:49am
nice to see you again FX-Jay! Hope to learn more from you.
  • #606
  • Feb 27, 2015 10:00am Feb 27, 2015 10:00am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote}As for the naggers that will constantly try to disrupt the useful conversations, I'll make sure to take care of them. I'm not very familiar with the FF rules/policies of threads, but I'm sure there will be a way to block users or at least comments that don't have the minimum level of intelligence and/or respect. I'll check that before starting a new thread
Ohhh yes! Please count me in. I've just been pointed here from Penguin Forum with the news that you're back. After reading a bunch of those latest posts in this thread I was ready to hit Ctrl-F4 when I read your quoted post.

I'd love to learn and to contribute. But I'm absolutely tired of crunching through tons of flaming while looking for the valuable contributions.

Would you mind dropping me a line when the new thread is started?

Cheers, duplex
  • #607
  • Feb 27, 2015 2:45pm Feb 27, 2015 2:45pm
well well if FX JAY back in very very good has long he can contribute in a very good way very very welcome
  • #608
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:41am Mar 4, 2015 3:41am
Quoting LiquidGenius
{quote} Has the thread died? I think so. Should it still be alive? Debateable. I think it's mostly run it's cycle as a thread. I believe that there were roughly 3 types of people on this thread when it was active: The "knowledge" seekers and workers The skeptics and wonder-es The clueless and greedy The first group of people were those willing to look and learn about new ideas. These people involved you and some of the people you mentioned. The second group wanted to see what the commotion was about. They weren't quite willing to put their back...

Personally I was 1st a skeptic when I used to see EURUSDD's calls on the EURUSD thread. I was curious enough to see what is this all about. I've never seen anyone before that was able to predict price so accurately, and the best part was the introduction of the time factor into the calls.
My curiosity turned me into a knowledge seeker. I had to admit that in the beginning it all looked like Chinese to me.

Before I knew it, I have spent countless hours/days/weeks, just to try to decipher all the mathematical formulas and logic behind the ideas thrown left and right. I'm not sure if it was really way more simpler than it looked or I'm just getting this feeling after spending way too much time studying and working my ass off to understand. It was a very nice challenge that includes 3 of the most intriguing subjects for me: 1- Logic 2-Statistic 3-Trading

For the people who totally gave up on the idea, I hope that you found something that suits you better, but if you're just jumping from one idea to another without putting the effort to really stick to something and master it, then my advise to you is to change this habit as soon as you can.

For the people who are still quietly working on mastering this, I urge you not to give up. This is really something you don't encounter everyday. Even if you don't mange to build a whole system over this idea, you will sure find lots of ways to incorporate it into your trading and gain an edge no matter how small or big it may be.

For those who started booking the profits, I wish you continuous success. If you have some smart ideas or original ways to trade TZ and probabilities, I'll be more than happy to discuss.
  • #609
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:50am Mar 4, 2015 3:50am
Quoting LiquidGenius
{quote} IMO it's a difficult process to get people to explain and share their findings since they treasure it.
That's true, but never forget that those people weren't born with this idea/system, they all received the same information from the same thread. If it wasn't for the discussions and findings of others, neither I nor anyone else would have reached the success they have reached today.

Some people contributed genius indicators, others contributed mathematical/statistical theories & their explanations, others contributed trades for people to study ...

What this thread and others that were related to this topic reached was way bigger than what the originator of the idea have meant to share.

If everything was spooned from day 1, and a fixed system was given, everyone would be asking how to download, and no one would have thought on how to develop and think outside the box to make it better
  • #610
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:55am Mar 4, 2015 3:55am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Personally I was 1st a skeptic when I used to see EURUSDD's calls on the EURUSD thread. I was curious enough to see what is this all about. I've never seen anyone before that was able to predict price so accurately, and the best part was the introduction of the time factor into the calls. My curiosity turned me into a knowledge seeker. I had to admit that in the beginning it all looked like Chinese to me. Before I knew it, I have spent countless hours/days/weeks, just to try to decipher all the mathematical formulas and logic behind the...
When the topic was active, I was blindly defending EURUSDD unless you and some few others opened my eyes about a scam. It was attractive for me because it was purely mathematical. After think about it long and some study statistics, I came to a conclusion that some principle mis-assumpitons existed at the beginning of his theories. All theories on this topic is based on the normal distribution of the data. Which means market movements should be random and independent from it is history. But markets are not random. It has physiological patterns, trends etc. So, may be this topic was born dead.
  • #611
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:01am Mar 4, 2015 4:01am
I was planning to open a new thread, but I changed my mind because unfortunately I don't have the will nor the time to manage and control a thread specially with the number of trolls that will pop up & if If I do something I like it to be perfet.

Anwz I'm going to hang around here and contribute to whichever thread I see interesting.

So if you have any interesting ideas, throw them out here & I'll be more than happy to discuss
  • #612
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:10am Mar 4, 2015 4:10am
Quoting Almondeyed
{quote} When the topic was active, I was blindly defending EURUSDD unless you and some few others opened my eyes about a scam. It was attractive for me because it was purely mathematical. After think about it long and some study statistics, I came to a conclusion that some principle mis-assumpitons existed at the beginning of his theories. All theories on this topic is based on the normal distribution of the data. Which means market movements should be random and independent from it is history. But markets are not random. It has physiological patterns,...
Lots of the so called scientific theories that were thrown to us were a bunch of BS. I learned that after meeting up with some statisticians & disusing them one by one. However, the indicators that were shared here allowed you to test theories in real life, but most people preferred to argue/refute/defend the theories.

The indicators were proving that 1+1=2 , but almost everyone wanted to argue that yes 1+1=2, but in trading stocks and forex 1+1 is not equal to 2.

The logic of some theories was totally flawed, but we have the tools due to the generous contributions of the FF orders to see where and how the flaws are.

Unfortunately almost all skeptics refuting the flawed theories with other 'theories' that were themselves sometimes more flawed
  • #613
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:17am Mar 4, 2015 4:17am
Hi FX-Jay,

Do u mind enlightening us which theories are correct and which one or many of the theories are false. It would greatly help us to get things straight in the first place.

Best Regards,
LearnAlways
I only know I know nothing
  • #614
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:24am Mar 4, 2015 4:24am
An Idea

I believe his EA's trend setting is based on option/futures open interest



Thoughts?
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Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #615
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:25am Mar 4, 2015 4:25am
In order to get the ball rolling and hopefully get some ideas flowing, I will be discussing my latest TZ and Probability related project.

I am continuously working on developing the concepts in the last 6 months (while almost everyone was giving up).
With the help and perseverance of a few smart traders, coders, and mathematicians most of which I had the honor to meet on ForexFactory, we're now able to introduce the whole concept into new already existing systems in order to have an additional edge.

The current project that is being developed has to do with currency correlation. If you are interested in the subject, there are some very nice and active FF groups about this subject.

My aim is to merge TZ and probability into the currency correlation and basket trading


Testing starts today
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  • #616
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:28am Mar 4, 2015 4:28am
Quoting BillYon
An Idea I believe his EA's trend setting is based on option/futures open interest Thoughts? {image}
Can you give us a little bit of explanation on this ?
  • #617
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:36am Mar 4, 2015 4:36am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Can you give us a little bit of explanation on this ?

Basically you would only target PTZs in the direction of the EA's sentiment

so if you set a target in the EA for 10 pips as an example. Once you see a 10 pip or more deviation from the forming transient zone (counter trend) you activate the EA and focus in that trend direction only.

Still needs to be tested but that's the jist.

The EA will place trades only in the direction of sentiment. So with the TZ we have a target and a trigger other than the EA as is.
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #618
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:43am Mar 4, 2015 4:43am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Basically you would only target PTZs in the direction of the EA's sentiment so if you set a target in the EA for 10 pips as an example. Once you see a 10 pip or more deviation from the forming transient zone (counter trend) you activate the EA and focus in that trend direction only. Still needs to be tested but that's the jist. The EA will place trades only in the direction of sentiment. So with the TZ we have a target and a trigger other than the EA as is.
Mind describing the logic behind EA?

What criteria does it analyze to decide sentiment. Just OI? If yes, please describe your understanding of how OI would determine positive or negative sentiment
  • #619
  • Mar 4, 2015 5:34am Mar 4, 2015 5:34am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Mind describing the logic behind EA? What criteria does it analyze to decide sentiment. Just OI? If yes, please describe your understanding of how OI would determine positive or negative sentiment

These are my speculations based on how the designer Googletrade here on FF describes the community trend feature in the EA. He has yet to reveal the origin but explains it's based on the live trading activity from multiple sources. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=518257

Form the Matrix grid trader thread...
"
[+] Community Trend Detection. This is not stupid detection based on fake indicators, it's based on real people trading activity from several sources.

Community Trend Detection will not work in Metatrader Strategy Tester, because this data is realtime. At this time Community Trend Detection supports EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF and NZDUSD. On other pairs it will show "unknown". So you need to disable Trend Trading on other pairs.
The setting variable "InternalTrendConfirmation" in pips, 100 Pips = 10 Points. Please note that Takeprofit and Step is in Points."

For from the pairs that are stipulated and the live sentiment capability it sounds like open interest bull bear ratio.

once bulls are baseline is 50 50 but so above 50 in either direction gives sentiment
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #620
  • Mar 4, 2015 5:40am Mar 4, 2015 5:40am
Either that or he is deriving trend from live trade ratio from post on twitter and such for sentiment. I've seen a few of these indicators being offered by brokers.

So even if not using the EA, it's the idea i'm interested in.

Your idea would gather sentiment based on a correlation basket right? this may be equally or even stronger. All must be tested but...
Solutions ONLY!!!
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