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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #541
  • Nov 23, 2014 5:48am Nov 23, 2014 5:48am
guys don't get confused with recurrence_statisticsv3 indicator. It there for you to calculate statistics not to interpret it. If you play with recurrence indicator you will find some interesting results. I set my left h=30 and h=30 right on m15 chart I get 82% of full resolving transient zone. Is it really 82%? the answer is it depends. If you put different h_right numbers that what you will get:

total problem bars: 7691
h_right bars probability of fully resolved bars Number of fully resolved bars Number of true problem bars

1 30% 30%*7691(total problem bars)=2307 7691(total problem bars)-2307(resolved bars)=5383
2 43% 3307 4383
5 59% 4537 3153
10 70% 5388 2307
15 75% 5768 1922
20 78% 5998 1692
25 80% 6152 1538
30 82% 6306 1384

What this table says that is that by H_right bar=1 already 30% of all potential transient zones already resolved. By bar 10 already 70% of all transient zones resolved. So If you enter your trade at bar 10 and wait until bar 30 there only 12% left of fully resolved transient zones.

Lets calculate the probability of your trade being successful if we enter the trade at h_right bar 5 and exit it at h_right bar 30. (6306(h_right=30)- 4537(h_right=5))/(6306-4537+1384(H=30 true problem bars))= 1769/3153=56%. At that particular trade there is 56% chance of fully resolved transient zone. Not even close to 82%. You can calculate probability of your trade being successful at any bar. My point is that the later you enter your trade less % of successful trade you will get. By successful trade I mean trading into potential transient zone.

Lets calculate Probability if we enter at bar 15 and exit at bar 30. (6306-5768)/(6306-5768+1384)=538/1922=27%.

What about 82%? We only get full 82% of successful trades if we enter our trade at h_right=1. I would say at the close price of the bar transient zone has formed. Otherwise your probability of successful trades will dramatically drop the more bars you wait.

What recurrence_statistics indicator does it adds up all successful trades by different bars into one figure which can be misleading.

Thanks for attention=)
  • #542
  • Nov 25, 2014 1:32pm Nov 25, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting vlady1974
After news that China cut rates. {image}
Thanks for the reply vlady1974. That helped... but you don't follow some specific rules when combining the concepts? It looks more like some kind of discretionary rules... based on spontaneous logic behind the concepts - and thus not rigid rules. Or am I missing something?

Hope the testing still goes well! And I can very much agree to your opionion with EJ.
  • #543
  • Nov 25, 2014 2:30pm Nov 25, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting sirurik
guys don't get confused with recurrence_statisticsv3 indicator. It there for you to calculate statistics not to interpret it. If you play with recurrence indicator you will find some interesting results. I set my left h=30 and h=30 right on m15 chart I get 82% of full resolving transient zone. Is it really 82%? the answer is it depends. If you put different h_right numbers that what you will get: total problem bars: 7691 h_right bars probability of fully resolved bars Number of fully resolved bars Number of true problem bars 1 30% 30%*7691(total...
Imagine for example you have a PTZ on 1H TF with h=30 and 10 bars have passed.
Now what if the same high (or low) is also a PTZ on the 4H TF with the same h=30.
Now only 2,5 bars passed on the 4H chart. What's the probability now? This is something to keep in mind.
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #544
  • Edited 2:55pm Nov 25, 2014 2:38pm | Edited 2:55pm
Hi, sorry, haven't looked at this thread in a while. Indeed sirurik is correct. The probability that the h-transient zone will become recurrent after x bars is

(P(h)-P(x))/(100%-P(x))

This is the reality, and no indicator can change it.

However, one should consider slightly less naive strategies, one of them mentioned by JuriFX (going after a higher TF zone, perhaps from a pullback on a lower TF, which is what I do), some are also shown in the Buried Treasure thread.

k
edit: have put h=30 in the previous version of the formula.
  • #545
  • Nov 25, 2014 8:48pm Nov 25, 2014 8:48pm
Quoting juriFX
{quote} Imagine for example you have a PTZ on 1H TF with h=30 and 10 bars have passed. Now what if the same high (or low) is also a PTZ on the 4H TF with the same h=30. Now only 2,5 bars passed on the 4H chart. What's the probability now? This is something to keep in mind.
Different time frames requires different waiting time in order for statistics to work. For 1H time frame if you enter your trade at H_right=10 and exit it at h_right=30 your probability of success is (6306-5388)/(6306-5388+1384)= 39%

For 4H If you enter at H_right=2.5 and exit at H_right=30 your probability will be (6306-3922(51% of 7691)/(6306-3922+1384)=2384/3768=63%
For that probability to work you have to wait 110 hours. Transient zone can become recurrent at any bar after your bar of entry. We never now when it will be fully resolved. Waiting time may vary.
  • #546
  • Nov 26, 2014 2:06am Nov 26, 2014 2:06am
Quoting kprsa
Hi, sorry, haven't looked at this thread in a while. Indeed sirurik is correct. The probability that the h-transient zone will become recurrent after x bars is (P(h)-P(x))/(100%-P(x)) This is the reality, and no indicator can change it. However, one should consider slightly less naive strategies, one of them mentioned by JuriFX (going after a higher TF zone, perhaps from a pullback on a lower TF, which is what I do), some are also shown in the Buried Treasure thread. k edit: have put h=30 in the previous version of the formula.

Thank you, I was looking for this!
  • #547
  • Dec 2, 2014 9:21pm Dec 2, 2014 9:21pm
Just want to give thanks to vlady1974.

This thread has cleared a few things up for me. While my sight is still a little foggy, I know if I continue to search for the hidden fruit I'll be able to see the Golden road ahead.
  • #548
  • Dec 4, 2014 12:14am Dec 4, 2014 12:14am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} That's an excellent chart Savero! Thanks for that. I suspect that many people will comment on where the trades failed - there are ways to filter that kind of trade out.... given it is on the 1H. But the other examples are gold! Cheers!
Vlady, according to the attached picture on the failed trades,
i've been researching and thinking where should i start to get the answers to filter out the failed trades in real time where:-

1. We do not know the PTZ zone will end up to be a potential even transient zone or potential transient zone

2. Moreover, at the central bar, there could have potential even transient zone and potential transient zone.
So, potential even transient zone is showing a sell signal but potential transient zone is showing a buy signal,
therefore i was wondering what should i do then?

i'm not asking for answers but some clue to start off.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Savero2.png Size: 117 KB
  • #549
  • Edited 8:29am Dec 4, 2014 8:14am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting Gregoryy
{quote} Vlady, according to the attached picture on the failed trades, i've been researching and thinking where should i start to get the answers to filter out the failed trades in real time where:- 1. We do not know the PTZ zone will end up to be a potential even transient zone or potential transient zone 2. Moreover, at the central bar, there could have potential even transient zone and potential transient zone. So, potential even transient zone is showing a sell signal but potential transient zone is showing a buy signal, therefore i was wondering...
I am waiting for Vlady's clue too mate.

But temporary for me, this is i do at the moment :
I love even TZ (don't ask why i love it, i have no technical answer for it, just like a feeling if i see a pretty girl .... ), so I am looking for a big enough candle, and this will build a big PTZ area (we do not know it will be even or uneven yet). If this candle has a wick, this "could be" becomes an uneven TZ (but not always like that). Next, i am waiting for some other 2-3 candles (especially if it does not has a wick, or just has a small wick), if there is a retrace in next 2-3 candles, this "can" build an even TZ (we can see the zone become smaller and smaller in the middle of candle, but the zone is NOT totally cleared by the retrace candle).
If the in 2-3 next candles the zone is cleared, then it will become uneven TZ.
I know this can be too late for entry, especially if it becomes uneven TZ (and our trading rule is away from that uneven TZ, the zone acts like S/R area) ...
Edit: But if we are trading in direction to that uneven zone (hoping that price will clear it, the zone will be totally resolved), i think this is not too late.
  • #550
  • Dec 4, 2014 12:45pm Dec 4, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Very very good mate! You've done in 2-3 posts what many have not done in the original thread. What I will tell you is to continue to test this and then sve it as a play book strategy. There is a post by NorthTrader on Buried Treasure thread that has stats on T/B/T sequencing probabilities which may be of interest. Your setup is great: - you identified that TZs go in sequences. - you identified the probability opportunity of the rare event - you identified that if you don't see a setup in that timeframe, you go lower or fractal. You haven't...

since vladys post i was thinking about my setup. just have a new version of the setup now. please give me feedback guys.
so first we are waiting for a PTZ (only one candle did this PTZ). the more new H PTZ this one candle makes the better.
so we have a big tendenz to outtake this PTZ. but now we wait the price for move away from the PTZ and move into a Rare event.
for example two TOP TZ. so now we have a PTZ (like magnet because outtake) and a rare event (two top tz) which are like turning places.
so we are trading the price from the turning places into the PTZ area.

the problem is that this kind of entrys are very rare and still not all of them are bringing profit. maybe im doing some mistakes and you guys can say if im on the right track? or what i should focus more?
  • #551
  • Dec 5, 2014 4:47am Dec 5, 2014 4:47am
Quoting tickoedo
{quote} since vladys post i was thinking about my setup. just have a new version of the setup now. please give me feedback guys. so first we are waiting for a PTZ (only one candle did this PTZ). the more new H PTZ this one candle makes the better. so we have a big tendenz to outtake this PTZ. but now we wait the price for move away from the PTZ and move into a Rare event. for example two TOP TZ. so now we have a PTZ (like magnet because outtake) and a rare event (two top tz) which are like turning places. so we are trading the price from the turning...
I remember rare event now, thanks. I think it is a good idea to wait for that to happen, you can use alert if you can code it. In order to get more alert, i think we can use smaller h, but if we choose a very small h, then it will be not 97% recurrent any more
  • #552
  • Dec 5, 2014 11:23am Dec 5, 2014 11:23am
Quoting pipscollect
{quote} I remember rare event now, thanks. I think it is a good idea to wait for that to happen, you can use alert if you can code it. In order to get more alert, i think we can use smaller h, but if we choose a very small h, then it will be not 97% recurrent any more

unfortunately i cant code, so doing it manuel. very difficult. so if someone could help it would be very cool.
jes i think this situation has potential. it inculde two rare events and the timefactor "H". still there can be applied some other thinkgs.
the problem is this happen very rare....

but if anybody can help code this. it would be very helpfull
  • #553
  • Jan 12, 2015 12:53pm Jan 12, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting tickoedo
{quote} unfortunately i cant code, so doing it manuel. very difficult. so if someone could help it would be very cool. jes i think this situation has potential. it inculde two rare events and the timefactor "H". still there can be applied some other thinkgs. the problem is this happen very rare.... but if anybody can help code this. it would be very helpfull

Hi!

I think I can code it, but i'm still reading and learning about TZ... Who are trading manualy with this idea, already have more results/conclusions?
  • #554
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:14pm Feb 25, 2015 6:14pm
Wow! this thread looks like a ghost town

The fact that this thread got completely paralyzed makes me believe that almost everyone gave up on the idea.

Personally I haven't. So if there is still some interest left I'd be more than happy to participate, if not .. then be it
  • #555
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:37pm Feb 25, 2015 6:37pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Wow! this thread looks like a ghost town The fact that this thread got completely paralyzed makes me believe that almost everyone gave up on the idea. Personally I haven't. So if there is still some interest left I'd be more than happy to participate, if not .. then be it
well it's because the secret(holy grail) that only a few it seems found it)
  • #556
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:40pm Feb 25, 2015 6:40pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Wow! this thread looks like a ghost town The fact that this thread got completely paralyzed makes me believe that almost everyone gave up on the idea. Personally I haven't. So if there is still some interest left I'd be more than happy to participate, if not .. then be it

I'm very interested!!!

Let me do some reading up so that I can dialog with you. I've been thinking of a way to use grid trading as a return to potential transient zone technique since that will be the target.

I have not thought about this for some time so let me collect my thoughts so I can clearly present the idea.

Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #557
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:40pm Feb 25, 2015 6:40pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Wow! this thread looks like a ghost town The fact that this thread got completely paralyzed makes me believe that almost everyone gave up on the idea. Personally I haven't. So if there is still some interest left I'd be more than happy to participate, if not .. then be it
if u want new ideeas to pour u should stop all the secret BS and btw there are threads with tz on another site...and it also seems that these works only if u know the direction so ....maybe now people will stop with their BS secrets
  • #558
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:47pm Feb 25, 2015 6:47pm
Quoting vladutz112
{quote} well it's because the secret(holy grail) that only a few it seems found it)
As far as I know, its far from being a holy grail. The ideas as they were presented gave quite a good edge if used/understood correctly.
Combine this to good money management and some basic experience in trading and you'll have amazing results.

The funny part is that there is no secret. If there is a secret then it would be with the initiator/creator of the concept & not with people that learned by reading and practicing from whatever was available for them on a public thread.
  • #559
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:49pm Feb 25, 2015 6:49pm
Quoting vladutz112
{quote} if u want new ideeas to pour u should stop all the secret BS and btw there are threads with tz on another site
Links?
  • #560
  • Feb 25, 2015 6:50pm Feb 25, 2015 6:50pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Wow! this thread looks like a ghost town The fact that this thread got completely paralyzed makes me believe that almost everyone gave up on the idea. Personally I haven't. So if there is still some interest left I'd be more than happy to participate, if not .. then be it
look what happend to ULLEN, MADMONEY,EURUSD and all the other gurus who gave the impression that they discovered some kind of mispricing and BS!!! when they actually wanted for others to pay them...for a while i suspected u too and i'm still suspecting you... people like this who can't do anything constructive just fool the others makes me feel disgusted
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