guys don't get confused with recurrence_statisticsv3 indicator. It there for you to calculate statistics not to interpret it. If you play with recurrence indicator you will find some interesting results. I set my left h=30 and h=30 right on m15 chart I get 82% of full resolving transient zone. Is it really 82%? the answer is it depends. If you put different h_right numbers that what you will get:
total problem bars: 7691
h_right bars probability of fully resolved bars Number of fully resolved bars Number of true problem bars
1 30% 30%*7691(total problem bars)=2307 7691(total problem bars)-2307(resolved bars)=5383
2 43% 3307 4383
5 59% 4537 3153
10 70% 5388 2307
15 75% 5768 1922
20 78% 5998 1692
25 80% 6152 1538
30 82% 6306 1384
What this table says that is that by H_right bar=1 already 30% of all potential transient zones already resolved. By bar 10 already 70% of all transient zones resolved. So If you enter your trade at bar 10 and wait until bar 30 there only 12% left of fully resolved transient zones.
Lets calculate the probability of your trade being successful if we enter the trade at h_right bar 5 and exit it at h_right bar 30. (6306(h_right=30)- 4537(h_right=5))/(6306-4537+1384(H=30 true problem bars))= 1769/3153=56%. At that particular trade there is 56% chance of fully resolved transient zone. Not even close to 82%. You can calculate probability of your trade being successful at any bar. My point is that the later you enter your trade less % of successful trade you will get. By successful trade I mean trading into potential transient zone.
Lets calculate Probability if we enter at bar 15 and exit at bar 30. (6306-5768)/(6306-5768+1384)=538/1922=27%.
What about 82%? We only get full 82% of successful trades if we enter our trade at h_right=1. I would say at the close price of the bar transient zone has formed. Otherwise your probability of successful trades will dramatically drop the more bars you wait.
What recurrence_statistics indicator does it adds up all successful trades by different bars into one figure which can be misleading.
Thanks for attention=)
total problem bars: 7691
h_right bars probability of fully resolved bars Number of fully resolved bars Number of true problem bars
1 30% 30%*7691(total problem bars)=2307 7691(total problem bars)-2307(resolved bars)=5383
2 43% 3307 4383
5 59% 4537 3153
10 70% 5388 2307
15 75% 5768 1922
20 78% 5998 1692
25 80% 6152 1538
30 82% 6306 1384
What this table says that is that by H_right bar=1 already 30% of all potential transient zones already resolved. By bar 10 already 70% of all transient zones resolved. So If you enter your trade at bar 10 and wait until bar 30 there only 12% left of fully resolved transient zones.
Lets calculate the probability of your trade being successful if we enter the trade at h_right bar 5 and exit it at h_right bar 30. (6306(h_right=30)- 4537(h_right=5))/(6306-4537+1384(H=30 true problem bars))= 1769/3153=56%. At that particular trade there is 56% chance of fully resolved transient zone. Not even close to 82%. You can calculate probability of your trade being successful at any bar. My point is that the later you enter your trade less % of successful trade you will get. By successful trade I mean trading into potential transient zone.
Lets calculate Probability if we enter at bar 15 and exit at bar 30. (6306-5768)/(6306-5768+1384)=538/1922=27%.
What about 82%? We only get full 82% of successful trades if we enter our trade at h_right=1. I would say at the close price of the bar transient zone has formed. Otherwise your probability of successful trades will dramatically drop the more bars you wait.
What recurrence_statistics indicator does it adds up all successful trades by different bars into one figure which can be misleading.
Thanks for attention=)