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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #409,741
  • Feb 22, 2015 10:58am Feb 22, 2015 10:58am
Quoting Bren0001
Good Evening, Just my point of view. B. {image} {image}
i saw your charts, very nice... whatis your thought? do you think it will go down and test the 1.50 area?
  • #409,742
  • Feb 22, 2015 2:24pm Feb 22, 2015 2:24pm
Quoting danndc
{quote} i saw your charts, very nice... whatis your thought? do you think it will go down and test the 1.50 area?
Hi danndc

Technically, that is by using the definition of what a trend is, neither the 4 hour nor the daily chart has actually gone into a downtrend. (A time frame may have a TL, but this trend line doesn't mean an actual trend has started, it may mean that there is a complex retracement underway not a new trend.) Price action needs to close below 1. 53434 and move down from that level in order for the 4 hour chart to "technically" be considered in a down trend. If price action continued to move down then the daily chart would need some type of retracement up and then continue down in order for the daily to be considered in a down trend or price action would need to move below 1.49512. This would be the continuation of the weekly down trend, which by default would put the daily back into a down trend.

Also this may just be a retracement with the up trend resuming sometime in the future. Watch and trade the price action not the expectation of others or yourself. On any given Sunday - oops, movie reference, there are pips to be made going short and going long. Trade the price action.

There will probably be opportunities to make pips going short and going long while the trends work themselves out.

B.
  • #409,743
  • Feb 22, 2015 2:41pm Feb 22, 2015 2:41pm
Quoting Bren0001
{quote} Hi danndc Technically, that is by using the definition of what a trend is, neither the 4 hour nor the daily chart has actually gone into a downtrend. (A time frame may have a TL, but this trend line doesn't mean an actual trend has started, it may mean that there is a complex retracement underway not a new trend.) Price action needs to close below 1. 53434 and move down from that level in order for the 4 hour chart to "technically" be considered in a down trend. If price action continued to move down then the daily chart would need some...

thanks a lot, about closing below 153434 are you talking about H4 or daily?
  • #409,744
  • Feb 22, 2015 2:44pm Feb 22, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting danndc
{quote} thanks a lot, about closing below 153434 are you talking about H4 or daily?
H4 sir.

B.
  • #409,745
  • Feb 22, 2015 2:46pm Feb 22, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting Bren0001
{quote} H4 sir. B.
ok perfect, what about if it closes below that level? do you think it will make new lows?
  • #409,746
  • Feb 22, 2015 2:59pm Feb 22, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting danndc
{quote} ok perfect, what about if it closes below that level? do you think it will make new lows?
danndc,

I don't know sir. I don't have the answer to that. What I will do, based on how price action responds to support and resistance levels, is trade those levels and that response.

Spud may have a better answer for you on this then I would. Hope this helps.

Enjoy your day.

B.
  • #409,747
  • Feb 22, 2015 3:11pm Feb 22, 2015 3:11pm
1.00 GBP=1.54063 USD xe current price ..no gap as yet
  • #409,748
  • Feb 22, 2015 3:20pm Feb 22, 2015 3:20pm
Evening elbert,

How was your week-end sir.

B.
  • #409,749
  • Feb 22, 2015 4:32pm Feb 22, 2015 4:32pm
So, danndc,

What is your bias for your next trade and why do you have that opinion?

B.
  • #409,750
  • Feb 22, 2015 4:43pm Feb 22, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting Bren0001
So, danndc, What is your bias for your next trade and why do you have that opinion? B.
i think this has been an ABC correction with C ending in 5 waves. i think we topped at the high last week and on friday we broke an ascending trend

we will see if we can break lower towards 14850
  • #409,751
  • Feb 22, 2015 4:48pm Feb 22, 2015 4:48pm
So your bias is short for good solid reasons.

With that in mind, how did you enter the trade short, or if you haven't entered a trade yet, how would you enter a trade short.

B.
  • #409,752
  • Feb 22, 2015 4:59pm Feb 22, 2015 4:59pm
Quoting Bren0001
So your bias is short for good solid reasons. With that in mind, how did you enter the trade short, or if you haven't entered a trade yet, how would you enter a trade short. B.
sorry bren but i am not the best peson you should ask for advises i would go short with target at 14950 and SL just above last week high
  • #409,753
  • Feb 22, 2015 5:04pm Feb 22, 2015 5:04pm
Me personally, I am going to bail on my short above Friday's low of 1.5342 (at 1.5350). I will reload short if it heels over a little bit more and we get some MA crossovers and a "good angle" on the descending EMA's. Not seeing that now:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP:USD Short.jpg Size: 750 KB


Truth be told, I was trading counter-trend on the move up, expecting breaks at resistance, which really didn't occur until 1.5440-ish ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #409,754
  • Feb 22, 2015 5:13pm Feb 22, 2015 5:13pm
That's ok danndc..

I wasn't looking for advice as I believe we must all trade the way we see the charts. If you look at all the posts that were written over the past week-end, various sharp and extremely good traders, have analyzed the charts and their opinions are that it will go long, go short or go sideways, or they are not sure so they are sitting on the sideline, which is a good position if you are not sure.

Instead I was hoping to discuss entries and exits with you. As I said before, I have found the way you analyze the fundamentals extremely accurate. (and through no fault of your own, the market doesn't always respond to fundamental news the way you would expect.) That being said, with you having a bias short, (which is the bias I have at least for the next move and at these levels, and for the reasons I posted on the charts) I thought discussing where is the best place to enter a trade short based on your bias would be illuminating and helpful for both of us. You've already identified what you believe is the direction of the market. (Which is extremely important.)

So the next question that begs an answer: Where is the best place to enter the market in the direction of the bias you've determined the market will move?
  • #409,755
  • Feb 22, 2015 5:25pm Feb 22, 2015 5:25pm
Well according to friday's candle. which closes at 392 after previous high of 478 and the body of the candle, is suggesting bearish move through out the week.
  • #409,756
  • Feb 22, 2015 5:26pm Feb 22, 2015 5:26pm
We'll need to continue this after the European Open. I'm going to get some sleep.

Trade well sir.

B.
  • #409,757
  • Feb 22, 2015 5:27pm Feb 22, 2015 5:27pm
For me, I will be short below 5342 and long above 5478. Flat in between.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #409,758
  • Edited 5:42pm Feb 22, 2015 5:28pm | Edited 5:42pm
We've opened the last week of the month below the monthly segment barrier at stiff resistance, could be a good sign if your short.
Break of the 1hr/4hr wedgy could be a good entry.
EDIT: added daily chart
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDMonthly.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 23 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #409,759
  • Feb 22, 2015 5:28pm Feb 22, 2015 5:28pm
kk330,

Also a solid reason for picking a bias for your trade.

B.

see you later.
  • #409,760
  • Feb 22, 2015 6:11pm Feb 22, 2015 6:11pm
Just wary of Yellens potential dovish tone causing a spike up to 1.55 area to retest (yet to be broken) current lower TL confluence
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 34 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
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