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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #409,461
  • Feb 19, 2015 1:42pm Feb 19, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting kk300
journey begins... have a safe ride...
what is your target?
  • #409,462
  • Feb 19, 2015 3:12pm Feb 19, 2015 3:12pm
Hmm...upon further review, it appears we might be heading all the way back down to 1.5000. I think it will make another bottom there, but I wouldn't go trying to catch the knife if it still looks like bears are in charge. It COULD turn around 1.5250, but I'm liking the 1.5000 scenario better. 1.5250 was an area of confusion, but not THAT much confusion. And really, if the pound has made a long-term low at 1.4952, another test to shake out any lucky longs from that area will probably yield some heavy liquidity as many would bail out of their longs and many other traders eager to short will try to be early on a breakdown through 1.4952.

I'll hold my short position until market shows me there are buyers down there and the whole thing was a fakeout. Otherwise, we WILL break the 1.4952 and all hell could break loose! I want to be short if that happens! Just going to have to wait and see how this thing comes down and look for hints of buying power.
  • #409,463
  • Feb 19, 2015 3:18pm Feb 19, 2015 3:18pm
I honestly don't see 1.5 be nice now but if we went to 1.52xx id be very happy ,at this rate we could be there by x mas and have long beards


Quoting Zappa
Hmm...upon further review, it appears we might be heading all the way back down to 1.5000. I think it will make another bottom there, but I wouldn't go trying to catch the knife if it still looks like bears are in charge. It COULD turn around 1.5250, but I'm liking the 1.5000 scenario better. 1.5250 was an area of confusion, but not THAT much confusion. And really, if the pound has made a long-term low at 1.4952, another test to shake out any lucky longs from that area will probably yield some heavy liquidity as many would bail out of their longs...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #409,464
  • Feb 19, 2015 3:27pm Feb 19, 2015 3:27pm
talking gbp cad ,just need tiny push like cable
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #409,465
  • Feb 19, 2015 3:32pm Feb 19, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting Bones
I honestly don't see 1.5 be nice now but if we went to 1.52xx id be very happy ,at this rate we could be there by x mas and have long beards {quote}
For sure, any shorts better be on alert around 1.5250 (we should actually always be on alert, long or short). But if selling looks heavy and buyers look weak, then no reason to ditch the short. There is potentially a lot left on the table in doing that. I don't think the low at 1.4952 will break, but it might, and if it does you will wish you hadn't bailed at 1.5250. If 1.4952 breaks, we could drop another 500 pips with the quickness.

We just gotta be on watch for buyers to show up and sellers to disappear, then we'll know when its time to get out.
  • #409,466
  • Feb 19, 2015 3:42pm Feb 19, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting Zappa
Hmm...upon further review, it appears we might be heading all the way back down to 1.5000. I think it will make another bottom there, but I wouldn't go trying to catch the knife if it still looks like bears are in charge. It COULD turn around 1.5250, but I'm liking the 1.5000 scenario better. 1.5250 was an area of confusion, but not THAT much confusion. And really, if the pound has made a long-term low at 1.4952, another test to shake out any lucky longs from that area will probably yield some heavy liquidity as many would bail out of their longs...
You could be right Zappa but that run up from 1.5 (which wasn't tested after) sat in a range prior to the run up from 1.5 and you would think it picked up all the orders. I would think around 1.527 area will show some reaction and probably where its needs to test to if it gets past yesterdays take of.

It would good trade if it gets down to 1.5.

Good luck which ever way she roles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #409,467
  • Feb 19, 2015 3:54pm Feb 19, 2015 3:54pm
Quoting Markj
{quote} You could be right Zappa but that run up from 1.5 (which wasn't tested after) sat in a range prior to the run up from 1.5 and you would think it picked up all the orders. I would think around 1.527 area will show some reaction and probably where its needs to test to if it gets past yesterdays take of. It would good trade if it gets down to 1.5. Good luck which ever way she roles. {image}
See chart.

Also, as stated earlier, these were impulsive bull waves all the way to the top. This greatly supports the case that 1.4952 is a long-term bottom, but it is still wise to wait for buyers before pulling the trigger yourself. Took me a LOOOONG time to realize that.
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  • #409,468
  • Feb 19, 2015 3:58pm Feb 19, 2015 3:58pm
Also, that big clump of waves right before the low at 1.4952 wreaks of buyers accumulating size, further strengthening the long-term bullish scenario.
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  • #409,469
  • Feb 19, 2015 4:01pm Feb 19, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} See chart. Also, as stated earlier, these were impulsive bull waves all the way to the top. This greatly supports the case that 1.4952 is a long-term bottom, but it is still wise to wait for buyers before pulling the trigger yourself. Took me a LOOOONG time to realize that. {image}
Don't disagree with you that there were three untested spreads but the first range move up has a lot of consolidation prior so would be surprised to see it re-test. However I'm constantly surprised.

Good luck to you.
  • #409,470
  • Feb 19, 2015 4:06pm Feb 19, 2015 4:06pm
Quoting Zappa
Also, that big clump of waves right before the low at 1.4952 wreaks of buyers accumulating size, further strengthening the long-term bullish scenario. {image}
Total agree that consolidated dealing prior to the first spread makes it hard to think it will break back through to 1.5 handle. But my opinion doesn't mean much it's just an opinion.
  • #409,471
  • Feb 19, 2015 4:18pm Feb 19, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting Markj
{quote} Don't disagree with you that there were three untested spreads but the first range move up has a lot of consolidation prior so would be surprised to see it re-test. However I'm constantly surprised. Good luck to you.
It is really hard to predict where, exactly, a market will turn. That's why we must be aware of all possible scenarios and prepare for them. And really, the toughest skill to acquire is to be able to spot strong buyers and sellers. It is the most important, because when you see it, then you know your at a turning point.

Just like today. I expected a big move up today, but when I saw strong buys get eaten up immediately with strong sells (first clue was actually the way it dropped after the spike into the high at 1.5480) I knew there was going to be some kind of turn. How big, I did not know. But once I realize this I reversed my position. And now I've had more time to do some forecasting and we can see what has already happened. We can see where the market might reverse, should reverse, could reverse, and might break. Sure you could just pick the most likely spot (in your estimation anyway), but it is better to wait for the opposing force to show before you do.

And of course I have my stop in place (hint: its not that far away, behind some barriers). There is always the possibility of being wrong. Best to just get out and re-evaluate.
  • #409,472
  • Feb 19, 2015 4:20pm Feb 19, 2015 4:20pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Tough one but tbh does look like HDA's idea to long GBPCAD last year was right... Just the entry point wasnt optimal but still you would have made a lot if listened to his call. I find it hard btw to short GBPCAD considering BOE turning hawkish and BOC is dovish due to possibility of further oil slide... rather be on buyer side. Unlike AUD and NZD, CAD is not that attractive for carry trades so we cant even count on those guys buying for that. Only time worth shorting is when Oil is likely to stage big bounce up maybe or when UK nears election?...
It is also possible we'll see another CAD rate cut which would send it even higher ... . So perhaps I need to change my thinking on that particular pair ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #409,473
  • Feb 19, 2015 4:29pm Feb 19, 2015 4:29pm
Hey Everybody,
Wishing you all the best.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Cya
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #409,474
  • Feb 19, 2015 4:44pm Feb 19, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Hey Everybody, Wishing you all the best. {image} Cya
Rising wedge?
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #409,475
  • Feb 19, 2015 4:50pm Feb 19, 2015 4:50pm
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Rising wedge?
Looks that way ... but cable doesn't always fill through all the way ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #409,476
  • Feb 19, 2015 4:59pm Feb 19, 2015 4:59pm
appsolutly agree changes in market to be noted as we go ,

Quoting Zappa
{quote} For sure, any shorts better be on alert around 1.5250 (we should actually always be on alert, long or short). But if selling looks heavy and buyers look weak, then no reason to ditch the short. There is potentially a lot left on the table in doing that. I don't think the low at 1.4952 will break, but it might, and if it does you will wish you hadn't bailed at 1.5250. If 1.4952 breaks, we could drop another 500 pips with the quickness. We just gotta be on watch for buyers to show up and sellers to disappear, then we'll know when its time...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #409,477
  • Feb 19, 2015 5:02pm Feb 19, 2015 5:02pm
carefull looking to low ,probability is not with you


Quoting Bones
heres why I don't think its highly unlikely to see 500 pips south reading the monthly now ,and even down there long wicked inverted hammer off major support zone tells us theres a problem for down for a couple months min , very best scenario at this point is we close as is or better, {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #409,478
  • Feb 19, 2015 5:25pm Feb 19, 2015 5:25pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} It is really hard to predict where, exactly, a market will turn. That's why we must be aware of all possible scenarios and prepare for them. And really, the toughest skill to acquire is to be able to spot strong buyers and sellers. It is the most important, because when you see it, then you know your at a turning point. Just like today. I expected a big move up today, but when I saw strong buys get eaten up immediately with strong sells (first clue was actually the way it dropped after the spike into the high at 1.5480) I knew there was...
Good luck with your trades Zappa.
  • #409,479
  • Feb 19, 2015 6:46pm Feb 19, 2015 6:46pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} For sure, any shorts better be on alert around 1.5250 (we should actually always be on alert, long or short). But if selling looks heavy and buyers look weak, then no reason to ditch the short. There is potentially a lot left on the table in doing that. I don't think the low at 1.4952 will break, but it might, and if it does you will wish you hadn't bailed at 1.5250. If 1.4952 breaks, we could drop another 500 pips with the quickness. We just gotta be on watch for buyers to show up and sellers to disappear, then we'll know when its time...
Making me re-think the TP on my short ... . Will have another gander at it tomorrow before the New York open.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #409,480
  • Feb 19, 2015 7:43pm Feb 19, 2015 7:43pm
Uk retail sales will move gu today i think
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