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EURUSD

  • #961,141
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:38am Feb 18, 2015 7:38am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Europe is doomed, but USD XXX looks weak right now, as a trade.
When did we hear that already? Oh right it was 2008, and then 2010. And then probably another time. And we will hear it again.
  • #961,142
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:39am Feb 18, 2015 7:39am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Well...than you have to buy everything at 0. Best investment in the world. Does it happen often?
LOL
  • #961,143
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:41am Feb 18, 2015 7:41am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Noone knows where the bottom is and even more people will invest in the eurosone. If Greek goes back to drakmer it will be so cheap as some think the currency will fall 50% overnight and then the investors are running to Greece. The russian will sell in Europe due to the low ruble while the british will buy again due to the strong pound
Did you ever live in country like that? I saw that scenario 3 times in my country at the past. No one investing on anything, when its start it keeps going down.
  • #961,144
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:43am Feb 18, 2015 7:43am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} When did we hear that already? Oh right it was 2008, and then 2010. And then probably another time. And we will hear it again.
Not sure what you're talking about, I'm very bearish on Euro and see it going to 88-90c in few years time. But as a trader I think it goes higher to around 1.16-1.17 before making new lows.
  • #961,145
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:43am Feb 18, 2015 7:43am
In case you havent noticed....

2015 EURO is a LOT DIFFERENT than 2007 Dollar.

The Dollar wont ever go away- the Euro can. Which one is the world reserve currency again? Which one is Oil paid for in again? Which one is comprised of several different countries, all with their own customs, wants/needs, history, economies, etc etc etc and which one is ONE country, with ONE government, and ONE society?

To compare the eu situation to the us situation is apples to fucking hippos. ITS NOT THE SAME.
  • #961,146
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:45am Feb 18, 2015 7:45am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Did you ever live in country like that? I saw that scenario 3 times in my country at the past. No one investing on anything, when its start it keeps going down.

It is always a bottom that have you seen from Turkey
  • #961,147
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:48am Feb 18, 2015 7:48am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Did you ever live in country like that? I saw that scenario 3 times in my country at the past. No one investing on anything, when its start it keeps going down.
the reality is the normal people don't have rational behavior...this is why most can only get poorer over the time, cuz of maybe a lack of sensibility/knowledge bag in economy etc...they dont always realize what is happening to them.... i mean some family will buy a house tomorrow, some will buy today, and some has already bought a house at the worst price in(in Europe) 2008 2009 2010 etc... who know...
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #961,148
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:49am Feb 18, 2015 7:49am
From 2004.01.01 to 2014.01.01. (10 years) the € was
- stronger with avg. 16.2% than now
- avg at ~ 1.36000

And it came down in a straight line (in higher TF).
The road to these low levels took only 8 months.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #961,149
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:50am Feb 18, 2015 7:50am
This 1280-1320 area is such a badass support, probably more bull spikes coming, until we stay above 1320.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #961,150
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:51am Feb 18, 2015 7:51am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Did you ever live in country like that? I saw that scenario 3 times in my country at the past. No one investing on anything, when its start it keeps going down.
Depends on where you live of course....I mean lets say your in a small town in Ukraine....not my idea of a nice place to buy a home though I'm sure its cheap to buy! Comes with a big disclosure that says "Warning - your home could be blown up by a Russian missile". Enjoy your new home...LOL Greece however....well.....beautiful place to live.....and many people in the UK buy homes in Greece, Spain etc as a holiday home for their families. You'll always find someone in the UK buying a home there because of its location....so yes its true.....location location location is just as important too.

Turkey may not have the same appeal as other countries. Its not only a cheap currency that drives a persons view on an investment.....
  • #961,151
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:52am Feb 18, 2015 7:52am
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  • #961,152
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:54am Feb 18, 2015 7:54am
Quoting Pharm0r
In case you havent noticed.... 2015 EURO is a LOT DIFFERENT than 2007 Dollar. The Dollar wont ever go away- the Euro can. Which one is the world reserve currency again? Which one is Oil paid for in again? Which one is comprised of several different countries, all with their own customs, wants/needs, history, economies, etc etc etc and which one is ONE country, with ONE government, and ONE society? To compare the eu situation to the us situation is apples to fucking hippos. ITS NOT THE SAME.
Just like the recovery will not be the same

Just like the crash will not be the same

Just like the bailouts arent the same

Just like the whole entire situation is not the same.

Right now- the US is killing it compared to the Euro. If numbers are bad- they are still better than the EU. If you are forced to marry one of two ugly women, do you choose the ugliest?
  • #961,153
  • Edited 8:12am Feb 18, 2015 7:55am | Edited 8:12am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} It is always a bottom that have you seen from Turkey
That's why I know how people behave. There was around 3000% interest rates overnight. People who had money they only look for it. People who had not only watched to see how they get poor day by day.
  • #961,154
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:56am Feb 18, 2015 7:56am
The housing market and the labour marked are strongly connected.
Look at the prices in the US housing marked below. It went up with the QE and started to decline at the moment of end QE. It started also to decline at the moment the euro/USD started to decline. The market is following the currency.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/N.../Price-History

Who will invest now in the US where the prices has rosen more than 30% and you pay 25% more only in exchange rate.

You go then to other markets like the eurosone where many countries still not have had any rise in housing prices.

The firgure above shows everything. It will be no rate hike in june due to this

Another thing abouth the labour market is the health reform. This have created a lof of working places from the state.Also very many of the new working places. Everyone knows what will happen when this ends
  • #961,155
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:57am Feb 18, 2015 7:57am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} When did we hear that already? Oh right it was 2008, and then 2010. And then probably another time. And we will hear it again.


A currency that has hard difficulties to fall after QE announcement and encounter one of the most important institutional crisis is doomed. Of course, that's all the fault of the dumb retailers who defend the 1.14 level.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #961,156
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:59am Feb 18, 2015 7:59am
Quoting fxtrader08
{quote} Depends on where you live of course....I mean lets say your in a small town in Ukraine....not my idea of a nice place to buy a home though I'm sure its cheap to buy! Comes with a big disclosure that says "Warning - your home could be blown up by a Russian missile". Enjoy your new home...LOL Greece however....well.....beautiful place to live.....and many people in the UK buy homes in Greece, Spain etc as a holiday home for their families. You'll always find someone in the UK buying a home there because of its location....so yes its true.....location...
Sure they can, 1 month use out of 12 and invest on real estate which probably you can buy cheap later. I am from Turkey.
  • #961,157
  • Feb 18, 2015 8:01am Feb 18, 2015 8:01am
Some say EUR is going to weaken because of ECB will print money. What's the matter with USD QE...which was started in 2007 (?) maybe??
Would someone explain me the correlations, between printing 10 times more money, while currency getting stronger?
f(z)=z2+c
  • #961,158
  • Feb 18, 2015 8:04am Feb 18, 2015 8:04am
Quoting hathor
Some say EUR is going to weaken because of ECB printing. What's the matter with USD QE...which was started in 2007 (?) maybe?? Would someone explain me the correlations, between printing 10 times more money, while currency getting stronger?

at the end of the printing the euro/USD were 1,39 now it is 1,14 because they dont print anymore. You can follow the currency euro/USD with QE1 and QE2 and QE3. When it stops it starts to rise again
  • #961,159
  • Feb 18, 2015 8:07am Feb 18, 2015 8:07am
Quoting MarianneOslo
The housing market and the labour marked are strongly connected. Look at the prices in the US housing marked below. It went up with the QE and started to decline at the moment of end QE. It started also to decline at the moment the euro/USD started to decline. The market is following the currency. http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/N.../Price-History Who will invest now in the US where the prices has rosen more than 30% and you pay 25% more only in exchange rate. You go then to other markets like the eurosone where...
You are thinking too one dimensional.

Investors invest in more than just houses!

Think ENERGY.
  • #961,160
  • Edited 8:19am Feb 18, 2015 8:09am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} at the end of the printing the euro/USD were 1,39 now it is 1,14 because they dont print anymore
Exactly!
And what happened with the EurUsd between 2007 and 2014?
Nothing - Sideways.

And when they finished?
Huge drop. Retailers were fooled.

...

Retailers always wants price to go somewhere extreme..To be rich. Avg retailer wants to buy a Ferrari/Castle/Airplane tomorrow by pushing a button once. But price likes to be around the median...and changing mentality/sentiment even for shorter term is the hardest part of trading imo. Confident kills if you don't know 100%. And you don't, so it's just a matter of time ('Luck factor').
f(z)=z2+c
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