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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #408,941
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:01pm Feb 17, 2015 2:01pm
Got news for you. Before carney speech, Goldman said to long cos he will playdown falling inflation. And they were right... he did it and GBP rallied. Now though, Goldman says its a short squeeze and to open shorts when the upmove seems to lose momentum. Will goldman be right again?

Carney was an ex goldman staff anyway so what the heck? I still aint too sure what the "bottom" for GU will be after seeing the euro... and how bottoms been sliced through again and again. calls for bottom over there have failed non stop, and am wondering how long can UK withstand the deflation disease of EU. 1.38 may not be wrong, but it could be a long term target who knows? after we do some RT here and there... ><

Quoting ZebraSquirl
Point in fact, it is a trifle maddening ... . Here's the Weekly: {image} Long-term S/R at its current level with the CCI hovering around the "0" line. The bounce off the low appears to be a short squeeze in oversold conditions ... . So I can see why there is a difference of opinion as to direction ... . It is also possible I got Morgan-Stanley's forecast (issued 2/8) stuck in my head and am therefore stuck on shorting. http://www.efxnews.com/story/27845/u...morgan-stanley Their 1.38 forecast by mid-year...
  • #408,942
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:12pm Feb 17, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting MaryAnne
Got news for you. Before carney speech, Goldman said to long cos he will playdown falling inflation. And they were right... he did it and GBP rallied. Now though, Goldman says its a short squeeze and to open shorts when the upmove seems to lose momentum. Will goldman be right again? Carney was an ex goldman staff anyway so what the heck? I still aint too sure what the "bottom" for GU will be after seeing the euro... and how bottoms been sliced through again and again. calls for bottom over there have failed non stop, and am wondering how long...
These six-month targets that these brokerage houses come out with are frequently nonsense ... . So much junk can happen between now and then ... . I mean, look at oil; who woulda thunk ... .

But the advice to continue to sell EUR/USD and GBP/USD on bounces I think remains sound against the backdrop of Fed tightening (which will occur at some unknown point, it seems ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,943
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:30pm Feb 17, 2015 2:30pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} These six-month targets that these brokerage houses come out with are frequently nonsense ... . So much junk can happen between now and then ... . I mean, look at oil; who woulda thunk ... . But the advice to continue to sell EUR/USD and GBP/USD on bounces I think remains sound against the backdrop of Fed tightening (which will occur at some unknown point, it seems ... ).
Agreed. Thats what I called sound fundamental analysis As long US is prepared to raise rates while the other 2 are still dealing with inflation or employment troubles, odds would be in favour of bear... As long as oil prices decline, USD and JPY should enjoy strength.

And yup, tho I gotta say the banks were right on projecting eurusd drop target last year... i didnt take heed and chose to long @ certain "turning" points and got burnt... points like 1.25, 1.22 and 1.20 and 1.1875 earlier this year lol. My logic was "it has to turn somewhere" it cant possibly be this oversold, it cant fall further without a big rally first etc. And saw price spikes out of BB as a good chance for bullish reversal on bigger TF... (btw i deleted BB - find them pretty useless).

Did the same mistake with GBP too last year... seeing 1.57 and 1.56 as good potential reversal points since it was confluence of 3 fibo, UK had good data etc. Man... now though, carneys speech seems to have put a pause in the big bear trend. we need further clues to see if it will resume shortly, or if its gone on a break
  • #408,944
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:41pm Feb 17, 2015 2:41pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Agreed. Thats what I called sound fundamental analysis As long US is prepared to raise rates while the other 2 are still dealing with inflation or employment troubles, odds would be in favour of bear... As long as oil prices decline, USD and JPY should enjoy strength. And yup, tho I gotta say the banks were right on projecting eurusd drop target last year... i didnt take heed and chose to long @ certain "turning" points and got burnt... points like 1.25, 1.22 and 1.20 and 1.1875 earlier this year lol. My logic was "it has to turn somewhere"...
From a fundamentals standpoint, I see a bit of difference between Cable and the Euro. The BOE appears poised to raise interest rates/normalize at the earliest possible juncture; the ECB is probably, in the scheme of things, years away from that. That's why I've been non-stop shorting EUR/USD on bounces, but have been more cautious about doing the same with GBP/USD. We could get into a cycle of Fed raising rates; BOE raising rates; Fed raising rates, etc. which may make discerning clear-cut trends in the pair more difficult; in that case, I'll just turn to other Cable crosses ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,945
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:41pm Feb 17, 2015 2:41pm
very low inflation doesn't support GBP, but it is open question what BoE will do with this problem, maybe nothing, will see.
  • #408,946
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:49pm Feb 17, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} From a fundamentals standpoint, I see a bit of difference between Cable and the Euro. The BOE appears poised to raise interest rates/normalize at the earliest possible juncture; the ECB is probably, in the scheme of things, years away from that. That's why I've been non-stop shorting EUR/USD on bounces, but have been more cautious about doing the same with GBP/USD. We could get into a cycle of Fed raising rates; BOE raising rates; Fed raising rates, etc. which may make discerning clear-cut trends in the pair more difficult; in that case,...
Dont forget he also mentioned negative rates and more QE possibility which messes things up even more. Maybe we should just play EURGBP (very safe). Will consider that if I can close these stupid shorts lower lol. I mean even if UK does the same rate cuts etc, EU will always be worse for sure

GU will probably rise (in short term) if Fed even hints at delaying rates since market will be like "oh BOE gonna be first" and start loading even more longs on cable. At least until market realises it's another lie.

Against aud, nzd, cad etc there is always a big risk commodity bounces and you know how big the ranges go. long GJ is good, but risky since anytime there is riskoff, it will plunge bad. No wonder banks been recommending EURGBP - makes good sense, yeah?
  • #408,947
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:50pm Feb 17, 2015 2:50pm
Quoting tomas.v
very low inflation doesn't support GBP, but it is open question what BoE will do with this problem, maybe nothing, will see.

Answer from Carney last week: Ignore for now and focus more on wage earnings.
  • #408,948
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:40pm Feb 17, 2015 3:40pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Point in fact, it is a trifle maddening ... . Here's the Weekly: {image} Long-term S/R at its current level with the CCI hovering around the "0" line. The bounce off the low appears to be a short squeeze in oversold conditions ... . So I can see why there is a difference of opinion as to direction ... . It is also possible I got Morgan-Stanley's forecast (issued 2/8) stuck in my head and am therefore stuck on shorting. http://www.efxnews.com/story/27845/u...morgan-stanley Their 1.38 forecast by mid-year...
This forecast was made on the 8th and price had moved more than 200 pips against it. Where is their recommended SL or are they recommending not using one at all? I mean it doesn't take an Einstein to see that price is clearly well supported at 1.50 area. Until that is broken, I don't see it going lower. This could potentially go back to 1.7 so I think this is a very bad forecast coming from a "reputable" bank.
  • #408,949
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:47pm Feb 17, 2015 3:47pm
get ready for the battle between bulls and bears...
  • #408,950
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:09pm Feb 17, 2015 4:09pm
Quoting elbert3
{image} ?
what does it suggests?
  • #408,951
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:17pm Feb 17, 2015 4:17pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Dont forget he also mentioned negative rates and more QE possibility which messes things up even more. Maybe we should just play EURGBP (very safe). Will consider that if I can close these stupid shorts lower lol. I mean even if UK does the same rate cuts etc, EU will always be worse for sure GU will probably rise (in short term) if Fed even hints at delaying rates since market will be like "oh BOE gonna be first" and start loading even more longs on cable. At least until market realises it's another lie. Against aud, nzd, cad etc there...
I prefer trading EUR/GBP over GBP/USD ... . Not a great deal of movement, but it suffices. Been shorting that on bounces, but it's a little low on the totem pole right now, so waiting for another entry there higher up the ladder ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,952
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:25pm Feb 17, 2015 4:25pm
i think it is waiting for something...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 41 KB
  • #408,953
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:40pm Feb 17, 2015 4:40pm
Quoting kk300
i think it is waiting for something... {image}
I'm assuming that we're hovering around here waiting for tomorrow's data/bank rate vote ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,954
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:54pm Feb 17, 2015 4:54pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'm assuming that we're hovering around here waiting for tomorrow's data/bank rate vote ... .
Ofcourse
  • #408,955
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:57pm Feb 17, 2015 4:57pm
Quoting kk300
{quote} Ofcourse
But anything you could do to move it along to my TP would be helpful ... .

Hate watching a trade that "dawdles" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,956
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:59pm Feb 17, 2015 4:59pm
just after dec two of the members changed their sides... what do you think of incoming???
  • #408,957
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:00pm Feb 17, 2015 5:00pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} But anything you could do to move it along to my TP would be helpful ... . Hate watching a trade that "dawdles" ... .
what are you holding? and from where?
  • #408,958
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:04pm Feb 17, 2015 5:04pm
Quoting kk300
{quote} what are you holding? and from where?
Three legs short: 1 at 1.5410; 1 at 1.5346; and 1 at 1.5294.

Will take profit at 1.5274 for the 1.5294 leg, with the rest to ride to 1.5220 ... . So, a ways to go (75 pips to 1.5274; 135 pips for the remaining 2/3rds as of right now).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,959
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:16pm Feb 17, 2015 5:16pm
You ll soon see 5274. carney,s explosion wouldnt last much longer... he knows whats coming in the long run with lower inflation.. bank policies would change... whats hawkish would be no longer hawkish... they must do something to avoid slumps.. i mean they will touch interest rate too... i expect some vote changes tom... ur 2nd and 3rd might hit tp before the end of this week..
  • #408,960
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:19pm Feb 17, 2015 5:19pm
Quoting kk300
just after dec two of the members changed their sides... what do you think of incoming???
These folks are saying that there will be now no votes for a rise at this time, http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com...ling-strength/, so it is likely that the devil will be in the details of the BOE's language contained within the minutes as to when and under what circumstances a rise would be in the offing ... . So, it is likely the rate vote will be as forecast (0-0-9). In looking over previous votes, it appears that there may have been a temporary shift as to the timing of the rise; it was 2-0-7 in December, which changed to 0-0-9 as of the January minutes:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Rate Forecast.jpg Size: 275 KB


Hard to imagine that they would flop again to 2-0-7 in just a month's time when the same circumstances which probably motivated the move to 0-0-9 still exist ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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