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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #408,721
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:15am Feb 17, 2015 1:15am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} I wonder if it will hit .5230 soon... and if so, where should we open longs? Do you think this is a falling knife trick, or genuine rally? Fundamentals seem to suggest further down, but you'd never know...
Simpliest answer: I do not know
But I will watch these levels carefully: 1.535, 1.53, and 1.52.
My preference is 1.52 because I seek to long at the moment, but I doubt it.
maybe only until 1.53
One of my trading strategy weaknesses is I have to watch PA before entry, and I am not good at predicting at which level it will react.
  • #408,722
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:16am Feb 17, 2015 1:16am
However, watch out the news.
I personally do not like any open position when news being released.
  • #408,723
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:20am Feb 17, 2015 1:20am
3 hours later expected area

https://charts.mql5.com/7/29/gbpusd-...ts-limited.png
  • #408,724
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:23am Feb 17, 2015 1:23am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} Hi Zarghami, I have similar TP as yours, but imho it may retrace first. i will seek to reload long. of course if i am mistaken then train will depart without me my 2cents.
Gu has jumped so nicely.
Will see how it goes!
  • #408,725
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:23am Feb 17, 2015 1:23am
Quoting GrowthHack
3 hours later expected area {image}
if 1.52 gives way today then get ready to open the parachute P
  • #408,726
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:23am Feb 17, 2015 1:23am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #408,727
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:26am Feb 17, 2015 1:26am
Quoting danndc
{quote} hi mary, this is only my opinion but, i think that this rally has only been made on carney's words, words that didn't make sense for me such as a hike with inflation below or near zero, and made to trap all the people who entered long i think that we will start going down making new lows or at least i hope so everything depends on CPI coming out

Interesting I do have the same view here... CPI has to improve to ensure continued rise in wages which are still way off the pre crisis levels. If he expects negative inflation, it is therefore absurd to expect higher wages since these 2 go hand in hand. More likely producers will be forced to sell at lower prices to secure sales in this global lack of growth, profitability declines which will translate into stagnant earnings or lower.

Lets see how it goes. Consensus is for 0.3/0.4 % CPI y/y, and anything below will trigger some reaction from trading bots. Note that Core CPI is most important too. If it drops from 1.3% y/y the doves' case will be stronger and this should have more priority over the CPI y/y.
  • #408,728
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:27am Feb 17, 2015 1:27am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} Simpliest answer: I do not know But I will watch these levels carefully: 1.535, 1.53, and 1.52. My preference is 1.52 because I seek to long at the moment, but I doubt it. maybe only until 1.53 One of my trading strategy weaknesses is I have to watch PA before entry, and I am not good at predicting at which level it will react.
BOE inflation report mentions that inflation is expected to be lower in short term, after that will be up targeting 2%.
So per BOE, my interpretation is, gu will not fall too deep, and then will up, ceteris paribus.
my 2 cents.
  • #408,729
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:30am Feb 17, 2015 1:30am
Quoting GrowthHack
3 hours later expected area {image}
Thanks for sharing. So either near .56 or .52? Stakes high... man


Quoting Idkurv
{quote} Simpliest answer: I do not know But I will watch these levels carefully: 1.535, 1.53, and 1.52. My preference is 1.52 because I seek to long at the moment, but I doubt it. maybe only until 1.53 One of my trading strategy weaknesses is I have to watch PA before entry, and I am not good at predicting at which level it will react.
Good idea. I have eye on .5338 level too seems there is a string of buyers there or something. First line of defence for bulls... for me .5338 / .5300 / .5230 then .52 / .5150 and so on
  • #408,730
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:32am Feb 17, 2015 1:32am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} BOE inflation report mentions that inflation is expected to be lower in short term, after that will be up targeting 2%. So per BOE, my interpretation is, gu will not fall too deep, and then will up, ceteris paribus. my 2 cents.
Tbh I think what they meant is they are looking at Core CPI which is still stable @ 1.3%
They figure that CPI is noise which is affected by falling oil prices, but Core CPI isnt.

I do agree with you that there should be a fall first before a possible rise up. But there should be fall again as we get close to election due to uncertainty.
  • #408,731
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:34am Feb 17, 2015 1:34am
Quoting elbert3
{image} morning
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 65 KB
good start see if it goes lower
  • #408,732
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:35am Feb 17, 2015 1:35am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} Nice catch mate. I think gu will fall soon.
thanks early bird catch the pips ,,gl. regards
  • #408,733
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:36am Feb 17, 2015 1:36am
Quoting Spudforex
{quote} Hmmm..
morning, i still want to type dell,,lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #408,734
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:38am Feb 17, 2015 1:38am
1.535 good place to buy small size only, do not hold that too long, as it remains bearish.
tight sl.
my 2 cents.
  • #408,735
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:40am Feb 17, 2015 1:40am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} BOE inflation report mentions that inflation is expected to be lower in short term, after that will be up targeting 2%. So per BOE, my interpretation is, gu will not fall too deep, and then will up, ceteris paribus. my 2 cents.
how can they predict the long term? i just want to tell you that for the first half of last year they were predicting to hike and we all know what happened LOL
  • #408,736
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:40am Feb 17, 2015 1:40am
Quoting Idkurv
1.535 good place to buy small size only, do not hold that too long, as it remains bearish. tight sl. my 2 cents.
I am actually bearish at least until election is over... thanks for sharing analysis
  • #408,737
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:41am Feb 17, 2015 1:41am
Quoting danndc
{quote} how can they predict the long term? i just want to tell you that for the first half of last year they were predicting to hike and we all know what happened LOL


Carney is the boy who cried wolf
  • #408,738
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:44am Feb 17, 2015 1:44am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Carney is the boy who cried wolf
what do you mean sorry?
  • #408,739
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:45am Feb 17, 2015 1:45am
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careful here plenty of time to trade
  • #408,740
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:48am Feb 17, 2015 1:48am
Quoting danndc
{quote} what do you mean sorry?

ummm its a literary expression. cry wolf = give false alarms or signal based on the fairy tale.

last year he did it for GBP telling everyone he will rate hike soon and never did = cry wolf aka giving false signal.

in the story the boy (a shepherd) did it a few times until people finally got tired of his cries and assumed he was lying. finally one day, the real wolf came and he was eaten since his (genuine) cries then went unheeded
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