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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #408,681
  • Feb 16, 2015 11:04am Feb 16, 2015 11:04am
EUR Tumbles On Greek "No Deal Today" Comments On Eurogroup's "Unacceptable, Unreasonable" Request http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-16/eur-tumbles-greek-no-deal-today-comments-eurogroups-unacceptable-unreasonable-reques …
  • #408,682
  • Feb 16, 2015 11:21am Feb 16, 2015 11:21am
Quoting Dano12
EUR Tumbles On Greek "No Deal Today" Comments On Eurogroup's "Unacceptable, Unreasonable" Request http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-16/eur-tumbles-greek-no-deal-today-comments-eurogroups-unacceptable-unreasonable-reques
do you think this will afflict GBPUSD too?
  • #408,683
  • Feb 16, 2015 11:32am Feb 16, 2015 11:32am
Definitely, GU going down with Euro, just not at the same rate.
  • #408,684
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:47pm Feb 16, 2015 12:47pm
I see this going up from here. The down move looks weak and "too easy". There is no reason for it to top out where it did for a substantial move, so I think we'll be back to new highs very soon.
  • #408,685
  • Feb 16, 2015 1:25pm Feb 16, 2015 1:25pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 63 KB
see the above chart ,target 1 hit look to the higher tc if it fall through 5353 for res..
  • #408,686
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:39pm Feb 16, 2015 2:39pm
perfect trade today for those who took it.

I jumped on the Eur slow slow train instead, always seem to regret lately not going on cable instead.
seems to move quicker, job done home and dry in an hr or two.
Twitter handle @rjtn_fxtrades
  • #408,687
  • Feb 16, 2015 5:54pm Feb 16, 2015 5:54pm
Quoting Idkurv
If short, tp1 1.535 tp2 1.52. I am still seeking to reload long. but short looks good.
Tp1 hit
Not sure tp2 will hit or not, have to wait and see.
  • #408,688
  • Feb 16, 2015 6:14pm Feb 16, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting Zappa
I see this going up from here. The down move looks weak and I "too easy". There is no reason for it to top out where it did for a substantial move, so I think we'll be back to new highs very soon.
It topped out because of the upcoming very poor CPI results that will be reported at 0430 EST tomorrow. I had a good day with it. Almost exactly 70 pips on my futures account. Got in a little later with my forex trading account, so only squeaked 15 pips out of that. Go short GBP when Asia is finishing up but before European markets come online, maybe 3 hours before GBP CPI is reported. Since this last up move was propelled by the BOE hinting that they would raise rates within a year, the crappy CPI that is about to come out should cause a nice move back to 1.525 or less for GBPUSD
  • #408,689
  • Feb 16, 2015 6:29pm Feb 16, 2015 6:29pm
Quoting Pmd1963
{quote} It topped out because of the upcoming very poor CPI results that will be reported at 0430 EST tomorrow. I had a good day with it. Almost exactly 70 pips on my futures account. Got in a little later with my forex trading account, so only squeaked 15 pips out of that. Go short GBP when Asia is finishing up but before European markets come online, maybe 3 hours before GBP CPI is reported. Since this last up move was propelled by the BOE hinting that they would raise rates within a year, the crappy CPI that is about to come out should cause...
If you say so...
  • #408,690
  • Feb 16, 2015 9:53pm Feb 16, 2015 9:53pm
Quoting Pmd1963
{quote} It topped out because of the upcoming very poor CPI results that will be reported at 0430 EST tomorrow. I had a good day with it. Almost exactly 70 pips on my futures account. Got in a little later with my forex trading account, so only squeaked 15 pips out of that. Go short GBP when Asia is finishing up but before European markets come online, maybe 3 hours before GBP CPI is reported. Since this last up move was propelled by the BOE hinting that they would raise rates within a year, the crappy CPI that is about to come out should cause...
1. Well, honestly if I am a big player I would like to load monster longs from below and not at these prices.

2. Hard to see how UK can remain prosperous enough to justify a rate hike within the next 12 months if conditions in EU dont improve. Is this be a repeat of Carney's mansion speech in Jun 2014? Though back then, UK data was much better unlike now, and he still wouldnt raise rates then and instead suddenly focus on wage earnings (which was weak).

3. He mentions rate cuts and further QE being possible. Why would someone who is serious about hiking mention those?

Cable is a mixed bag though it should ideally drop lower so we can choose to close shorts and/or reload more longs there should the opportunity arise.
  • #408,691
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:07pm Feb 16, 2015 10:07pm
Gu might retest 1.535, still room to go up to 1.539 before retest 1.535 imho.
could be wrong.
  • #408,692
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:21pm Feb 16, 2015 10:21pm
Getting a little bounce here in mid-Asian ... . Don't know what to make of it beyond perhaps a bit of dollar weakness (EUR/USD is bouncing a bit, too).

I'm short w/a 1.52 TP ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,693
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:26pm Feb 16, 2015 10:26pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Getting a little bounce here in mid-Asian ... . Don't know what to make of it beyond perhaps a bit of dollar weakness (EUR/USD is bouncing a bit, too). I'm short w/a 1.52 TP ... .
it is going to be a tough support to break at 1.5230/40 though...but i'm with you on that
  • #408,694
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:30pm Feb 16, 2015 10:30pm
Quoting cheater
{quote} it is going to be a tough support to break at 1.5230/40 though...but i'm with you on that
Yep. A lot of resistance there; I actually considered a lower TP, but didn't want to get greedy. (Quietly adjusts TP up to 1.5220 ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,695
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:37pm Feb 16, 2015 10:37pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Getting a little bounce here in mid-Asian ... . Don't know what to make of it beyond perhaps a bit of dollar weakness (EUR/USD is bouncing a bit, too). I'm short w/a 1.52 TP ... .

Cool. My TP is actually .5230 wonder how long it will take to reach
  • #408,696
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:41pm Feb 16, 2015 10:41pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Yep. A lot of resistance there; I actually considered a lower TP, but didn't want to get greedy. (Quietly adjusts TP up to 1.5220 ... ).
Also, this TP is around the .50 Fib for the 10-Day High/Lo (Feb 3 Low of 1.499/Feb 16 High of 1.544) ... . I think when the move was in its first stages, they were calling it a "short squeeze." Seems to have taken on a life of its own, fueled a bit by lackluster U.S. data and Carney-babble.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,697
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:45pm Feb 16, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Also, this TP is around the .50 Fib for the 10-Day High/Lo (Feb 3 Low of 1.499/Feb 16 High of 1.544) ... . I think when the move was in its first stages, they were calling it a "short squeeze." Seems to have taken on a life of its own, fueled a bit by lackluster U.S. data and Carney-babble.

True. Carney talking up GBP on bad UK data and even suggested more bad data to come. I still cant figure out if he can actually raise rates with negative inflation coming in and with QE still continuing...
  • #408,698
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:47pm Feb 16, 2015 10:47pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Cool. My TP is actually .5230 wonder how long it will take to reach
I think that's going to hinge on U.K. data coming out here in the London session ... . (Fingers crossed).

That being said, there's that whole Grexit thing going on in the background. I was mainly dabbling in Euro crosses today, so I didn't pay much attention to my open GBP/USD short position ... .

Appeared to be making some good headway, then encountered some resistance at 1.534-ish and has now bounced a bit in the last several hours ... . I guess that 1.5338 is a lower low ... . Now hoping for a lower high ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,699
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:48pm Feb 16, 2015 10:48pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} True. Carney talking up GBP on bad UK data and even suggested more bad data to come. I still cant figure out if he can actually raise rates with negative inflation coming in and with QE still continuing...
yh..........and never trust centrl bankers......
  • #408,700
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:53pm Feb 16, 2015 10:53pm
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} True. Carney talking up GBP on bad UK data and even suggested more bad data to come. I still cant figure out if he can actually raise rates with negative inflation coming in and with QE still continuing...
I personally don't fully understand his message. It's somewhat muddled. He says that, on the one hand, negative interest rates are "possible," but that a rate cut now would probably not be particularly productive. Why would he say that negative rates are "possible" if a cut is off the table because it would not be productive ... . (Pulls hair out).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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