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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #408,001
  • Feb 8, 2015 9:47am Feb 8, 2015 9:47am
Quoting elbert3
{image} week depends on your view , is it an inverted hammer ,ie end of trend??? 1 we could see 1.548 area is not its possible to see 1.430 area . if we are in a correction then even 1.548 comes into play at the 23%{image} easy rejection off tl or break above, one can draw another tl just below the top tl, or it will come down to the 10/20 emas then go up.5160 area {image} last week 5220 played a hand in s/r emas are pointing down but 100 in blue and 200 in green are there as above on the 1 hour that 5160 area is where the 200 is now ?? not an easy...
i see your charts, but why don't you start from monthly one? am i the only who sees a monthly TL break out?
secondly: how can the pair go up after such big numbers from USA?
third: how can GBP go up when inflation is going to go down following EU inflation too?
forth: this time FED can not mention hiking time after wage growth, wich they have been waiting for.. and remember that were January's data (lazy january)

we can't not consider that USA is expanding and global Europe (UK included) are struggling

this is my opinion

what do you think?
  • #408,002
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:27am Feb 8, 2015 10:27am
Quoting aky
{quote} Hi Mr Scott, Nice pattern there! Just wanna check with you, since the B point is at the 786 retracement, would that be a potential butterfly pattern which would normally be completed around the 127? Would like to understand why the projection to 161 instead. Thanks!
in fact it touched the 127. i think the 161 would be a crab pattern? i am not sure

but after touching the 127 it has had a big bouce forming a bearish dark cloud on the daily
  • #408,003
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:34am Feb 8, 2015 10:34am
Quoting danndc
{quote} i see your charts, but why don't you start from monthly one? am i the only who sees a monthly TL break out? secondly: how can the pair go up after such big numbers from USA? third: how can GBP go up when inflation is going to go down following EU inflation too? forth: this time FED can not mention hiking time after wage growth, wich they have been waiting for.. and remember that were January's data (lazy january) we can't not consider that USA is expanding and global Europe (UK included) are struggling this is my opinion what do you think?...
Support, demand zone, stil higher low and better RR for longs on the monthly...
I think you should trade your plan!!!
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Anything is math!
  • #408,004
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:40am Feb 8, 2015 10:40am
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} Support, demand zone, stil higher low and better RR for longs on the monthly... I think you should trade your plan!!! {image}
if you draw a TL from 2008 low touching 2012 low, has this line been broken by january 2015 candle?

could february bounce be a restart of downtrend settled after touching daily TL seen last week?
  • #408,005
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:09am Feb 8, 2015 11:09am
Quoting danndc
{quote} if you draw a TL from 2008 low touching 2012 low, has this line been broken by january 2015 candle? could february bounce be a restart of downtrend settled after touching daily TL seen last week?
There are lot of variations of using/trading TL.
All have exact roules!!!
Personally i use it only on close price and think it will be touched again where trade short has better RR to take...
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Anything is math!
  • #408,006
  • Feb 8, 2015 1:28pm Feb 8, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} There are lot of variations of using/trading TL. All have exact roules!!! Personally i use it only on close price and think it will be touched again where trade short has better RR to take... {image}
if you draw it by using lows you will see that it has been broken lower and i has been retouched.

i could be very oppressive, but i think that price will fall cause UK will be very dovish afflicted by european QE
  • #408,007
  • Feb 8, 2015 4:27pm Feb 8, 2015 4:27pm
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plenty of time stay safe watch and wait ,,night guys
  • #408,008
  • Edited 6:45pm Feb 8, 2015 4:52pm | Edited 6:45pm
Not like any cereals analysis, but seems is a bottom break retest.
Edit: Am prolly silly, but I shoot some now.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi guys, am not investing much here, as not focusing on GBP and long term am bearish due to Carney on the wheel, but think ECB action could cause some flow into GBP, as apart is boost for EU stox and Dax, Brittains could well profit as well and are the most long term stable currency surrounding EMU apart from CHF which is out of question now. So think we could correct here above 1,52, not calling reversal, but think we could have a nice bounce. Will appreciate thoughts, am really not much into GBP. T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #408,009
  • Edited 7:04pm Feb 8, 2015 6:46pm | Edited 7:04pm
From my point of view fair enough to risk some exposure on the downside with SL in case of break of the channel/top/wick/resistance. Let's see and be patient.

Edit: I'm not yet in, this is still untriggered SELL LIMIT at this stage... :-) I'd like them to trigger right at top H1 end MACD cycle. If H1 cycle ends below SL I'm happy. :-)
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  • #408,010
  • Feb 8, 2015 6:49pm Feb 8, 2015 6:49pm
Quoting Delta1One
From my point of view fair enough to risk some exposure on the downside with SL in case of break of the channel/top/wick/resistance. Let's see and be patient. {image} {image}
Mate I dont like you. I prolly just bought your pounds . About 18K. Averaged 1,524.
YY, really great deal mate. Your selling me some rotten pounds huh?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #408,011
  • Feb 8, 2015 6:59pm Feb 8, 2015 6:59pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Mate I dont like you. I prolly just bought your pounds . About 18K. Averaged 1,524. YY, really great deal mate. Your selling me some rotten pounds huh?
Then adjust your TP right on my SL ! I may get my ass kicked on H1 but H4 is with me ! If my positions hold till MACD cycle H1 fully complete, you should have a swap ! :-)
  • #408,012
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:04pm Feb 8, 2015 7:04pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Then adjust your TP right on my SL ! I may get my ass kicked on H1 but H4 is with me ! If my positions hold till MACD cycle H1 fully complete, you should have a swap ! :-)
Now am counting on m15. Gonna put few of these BE, coz think 1,52 should get retested anyway. Up and down, up and down, whatever comes out of it, I take it.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #408,013
  • Feb 8, 2015 8:27pm Feb 8, 2015 8:27pm
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} Yes, S & R is a zone for me, I mentioned 1.525 just for simplicity. I think GU will bounce up, maybe retesting 1.53? I do not know. I seek to short, my tf is h4, my dynamic tp is 1.515, tp2 1.51. will watch 1.525 - 1.535 closely.
Long gu tp 1.529 scalp only, small lot.
will see.
  • #408,014
  • Feb 8, 2015 8:50pm Feb 8, 2015 8:50pm
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} Cool! I will too. I was expecting GU bullish too early, but I think this time is pretty good. 2 weekly close higher so far. hope to get in the right train in the right time.
hey..can you post your chart????/
  • #408,015
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:34pm Feb 8, 2015 10:34pm
Quoting danndc
{quote} do you think it will finally go to 1.4850?
For the time being i Don't see any possibilities supporting the same. However, a sustained treading below 1.5100 can help the same level to test in medium-term.
  • #408,016
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:36pm Feb 8, 2015 11:36pm
Quoting kanchmadush
{quote} hey..can you post your chart????/
sorry, I have problem uploading picture, security scan keep running with no avail.
just see weekly tf, and zoom out.
we are at around upper tl and see gap on left.
also, support at 1.48-1.51 zone.
it has been 2-week on a row closing higher, sto weekly start pointing up
however, it was smashed at weekly tl on Friday.

so if gu can break above 1.535 it will target 1.55.
while upper weekly tl hold, there is still possibility to down to 1.48.

just my 2 cents.
  • #408,017
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:56pm Feb 8, 2015 11:56pm
Quoting danndc
{quote} what are the facts that could move GBP up? you all guys are saying that it will move up but I don't see any catalist for thiscan you tell me what.you see?
Technical resistance area around 1.5477. Excellent market post nfp stop run.
I'm not going long to that area, but will short from there if it goes there.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #408,018
  • Feb 9, 2015 12:03am Feb 9, 2015 12:03am
Quoting danndc
{quote} what are the facts that could move GBP up? you all guys are saying that it will move up but I don't see any catalist for thiscan you tell me what.you see?
from memory, UK numbers have been ok lately. The $ is expensive and may struggle to find more buyers at current price.
More good UK news on Tuesday could send it North.

I'm not a fundy guy so take with grain of salt
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #408,019
  • Feb 9, 2015 12:04am Feb 9, 2015 12:04am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} sorry, I have problem uploading picture, security scan keep running with no avail. just see weekly tf, and zoom out. we are at around upper tl and see gap on left. also, support at 1.48-1.51 zone. it has been 2-week on a row closing higher, sto weekly start pointing up however, it was smashed at weekly tl on Friday. so if gu can break above 1.535 it will target 1.55. while upper weekly tl hold, there is still possibility to down to 1.48. just my 2 cents.
yh i am also feel same... H@S pattern also appear......i will wait till it break neckline for sell pair..will see..there has possibility go up till 1.53..bt i dont think 1.55xx.. tuesday gbp data and thursday inflation report will be focus..have you any idea about thursday inflation data,?
  • #408,020
  • Feb 9, 2015 12:08am Feb 9, 2015 12:08am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Technical resistance area around 1.5477. Excellent market post nfp stop run. I'm not going long to that area, but will short from there if it goes there.
I'll be a buyer at 5271
I'm a seller at 5200
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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