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  • #955,421
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:02am Jan 28, 2015 10:02am
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} My opinions are generally opposed to the consensus and mainstream. I don't see the FED raising until Q2 2016 or even later. {quote} How about a weaker dollar instead.
Yikes. You must think the markets super inefficient. Do agree that there no material signs of an uptick in inflation and none likely in these conditions despite rising employment. Like you say the juries out on demand pull inflation from wage growth.
  • #955,422
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:08am Jan 28, 2015 10:08am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Yikes. You must think the markets super inefficient. .

I find the markets very efficient, I just find those that speak the loudest and most often are not very well informed. Those that know best tend to keep their heads down and get on with trading instead, they don't do the rounds on breakfast telly or "business" programs for the amusement of the masses.

Broadcasters, journalist, bloggers and newspaper proprietors don't make a market, we do, they just talk about it.
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #955,423
  • Edited 10:26am Jan 28, 2015 10:14am | Edited 10:26am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} ...and that's the possible target-audience of Le Pen for 2017. Even if it's not a majority, they will get mobilized. We are doing the very same thing in Germany at the moment. Dumb and poor are in the streets propagating a very unpleasant kind of protectionism, while our president (with a minor P in the beginning) is repeating the same bullshit over and over.
lol man... the last time le pen has tried was in 2002 they got the memo with 20%-80% as vote score, the worst politic score ever, they re-elected the same sh.t president instead...each time it's the same sh.t but people are too scared to vote for him(her now it's his daughter)....2007 and 2012 they did not even pass 1st round...at the last second the big public has changed of mind and voted against le pen...
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #955,424
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:14am Jan 28, 2015 10:14am
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} I find the markets very efficient, I just find those that speak the loudest and most often are not very well informed. Those that know best tend to keep their heads down and get on with trading instead, they don't do the rounds on breakfast telly or "business" programs for the amusement of the masses. Broadcasters, journalist, bloggers and newspaper proprietors don't make a market, we do, they just talk about it.
But the consensus for rates going up soon- at the very least this year are all in the process of, or already priced in by all serious actors who are making the market. I think your call is very interesting but it's far out of the mean.
  • #955,425
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:23am Jan 28, 2015 10:23am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it caught me yesterday/today. i have/had rate cutting on the brain.. caterpillar is bent over trying to put little pieces of soap together in the shower. looks like they will be "bent over" a long time
BTW, did you catch the AN move? Got quite few pips from the least expected.
  • #955,426
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:26am Jan 28, 2015 10:26am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} But the consensus for rates going up soon- at the very least this year are all in the process of, or already priced in by all serious actors who are making the market. I think your call is very interesting but it's far out of the mean.

They are priced in, I just think that they are priced based on a wrong assumption. I can see more and more of the big boys coming out in the next few weeks and adjusting their call for the timing of a rate rise. That will see the underlying market get repriced. The consensus is June and we are priced accordingly, that consensus will have to catch up to reality and the underlying price will change. The market isn't wrong, it never is, the model it is based on however is.

Q2 2016 is my call, the underlying figures since the middle of last quarter don't support June anymore.

Queue the adjustments.
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #955,427
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:27am Jan 28, 2015 10:27am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} This Technically, under normal circumstances this is reversal {image}
I'm not in the reversal camp- I'm in the bounce to parity camp (as you can see by my stops)...but if it happens, here is the smoking gun @ roughly 1209. Interesting it hasn't been mentioned at all (the psuedohammer/engulf I mean) last pattern like this I found was in the 13xx & 14xx area

We all know where EU/US fundies point
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  • #955,428
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:27am Jan 28, 2015 10:27am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} lol man... the last time le pen has tried was in 2002 they got the memo with 20%-80% as vote score, the worst politic score ever, they re-elected the same sh.t president instead...each time it's the same sh.t but people are too scared to vote for him(her now it's his daughter)....2007 and 2012 they did not even pass 1st round...at the last second the big public has changed of mind and voted against le pen...
I can't argue with that. Thank you.
  • #955,429
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:27am Jan 28, 2015 10:27am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Took 5 pips of that, another short 3510, TP 10.
3510 and 3610 shorts closed +15 total.
  • #955,430
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:30am Jan 28, 2015 10:30am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} BTW, did you catch the AN move? Got quite few pips from the least expected.
nope.. but norm is a long way higher for a dead cat. if that happens, its high enough to cause food inflation comodity comparable to mineral commodity. not that food will rise. it just may start dropping more then mineral comparably.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #955,431
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:34am Jan 28, 2015 10:34am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} I can't argue with that. Thank you.
you can, the reality is today is different, the world has changed, 15 years later, the voters are not totally the same, some people who voted that year are dead, new joungs voters appear to remplace them...so the results today can be different...notice that you are true: le pen is growing in number since 2012 results...even if as you say its not a majority...
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #955,432
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:37am Jan 28, 2015 10:37am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'm not in the reversal camp- I'm in the bounce to parity camp (as you can see by my stops)...but if it happens, here is the smoking gun @ roughly 1209. Interesting it hasn't been mentioned at all (the psuedohammer/engulf I mean) last pattern like this I found was in the 13xx & 14xx area We all know where EU/US fundies point {image}
Yes, I didn't see it coming either + that Sunday was all about negative Greece

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} nope.. but norm is a long way higher for a dead cat. if that happens, its high enough to cause food inflation comodity comparable to mineral commodity. not that food will rise. it just may start dropping more then mineral comparably.
I can't see that far either - historically NZD and AUD always move in parallel otherwise parity is imminent
  • #955,433
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:43am Jan 28, 2015 10:43am
Quoting janpec1000
Anyone 1343 short?
yes
baloch
  • #955,434
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:47am Jan 28, 2015 10:47am
one consensus is sep
  • #955,435
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:49am Jan 28, 2015 10:49am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} you can, the reality is today is different, the world has changed, 15 years later, the voters are not totally the same, some people who voted that year are dead, new joungs voters appear to remplace them...so the results today can be different...notice that you are true: le pen is growing in number since 2012 results...even if as you say its not a majority...
What is striking me is the change of the party's direction following the losses of Jean-Marie. The strictly "French first"-approach didn't work and as soon as they opened up they gained a lot of votes, esp. with regards to the European Parliament.

I need to study them a bit more to actually form an opinion.
  • #955,436
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:50am Jan 28, 2015 10:50am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} But the consensus for rates going up soon- at the very least this year are all in the process of, or already priced in by all serious actors who are making the market. I think your call is very interesting but it's far out of the mean.
NOT, not under any scenario!!!. Rate hike is not priced in by markets, we are trading in equities all time highs without a breath the last 2 years and we keep going and more importantly Treasuries are not trading a hike yet. Actually some of the major bastards in the board are pushing/betting/forcing the FED to even keep rates lower for another year.

From a strictly monetary policy view. The FED job with low rates and QE is DONE. The worst it can do is keep sweetening the pot and not hike on time. The US economy is in full track and it should be let to walk alone now to gain sustainable mid and long term momentum. Otherwise the bastards get addicted to easy money which will ALWAYS led to lose of competitiveness and inflation....

In any case, euro in a horrible position for any move with the FED statement. Neither Asia, London or the US could break the highs leaving the wide range in play for any move. Bulls have a slight upper hand from 1.132x/4x to the 1.15xx handle but for those who are not already in any intraday trade looks very wide.

Same levels, same trades, same options for any FED move. 1.127x to 1.154x has priority short term without surprises from the FED. Any dovish tone will open a wide zigzag move up 1.15xx and down the lows and up we go for a retrace in the euro after the monthly roll. Any other scenario is sell the rally after the initial move...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #955,437
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:53am Jan 28, 2015 10:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} before that last (1679) new high 1548 was not touched. in the 1817 setup 1548/1459 is where that one would normally happen (bounce) . i am keeping that in mind if it turns st bullish. 1548 is a bull norm even though i am short,,
Still on your mind?

Trying to stay 5 steps ahead...

Say an overshoot to ~1600+, followed by a retest of 1548 would possibly put this back in play correct? Or is that only on the way down...not on the way back up?
  • #955,438
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:55am Jan 28, 2015 10:55am
EurUsd will be stay bearish below 1.25705 until September/2015..good luck all
do not stand out in the open with gun ;stand in the bushes with knife..
  • #955,439
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:57am Jan 28, 2015 10:57am
Quoting countdown
EurUsd will be stay bearish below 1.25705 until September/2015..good luck all
thank you Messiah
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  • #955,440
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:57am Jan 28, 2015 10:57am
Quoting countdown
EurUsd will be stay bearish below 1.25705 until September/2015..good luck all
Can you see future???
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