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  • #955,401
  • Edited 11:36am Jan 28, 2015 11:25am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting infsey
{quote} Then eurousd will go down?
how can i possibly know that answer with any real confidence? we made a LL this week like trend suggest. then we bounced, like we do many times before fmoc. personally fundi wise i dont see anything euro positive verse the usd. no matter what, energy is cheaper in the u.s. and i doubt FMOC will change that today. personally i still sell bounces
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #955,402
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:28am Jan 28, 2015 11:28am
Quoting pedro319
EURUSD Little bounce off ABCD 5 mins chart, .786 Ret 15 min is next at 1.1364 if we break above we are en route to targets specified yesterday.
Did you notice the monthly ABCD is the current low to the pip?
  • #955,403
  • Edited 11:42am Jan 28, 2015 11:32am | Edited 11:42am
The FED will raise rates, not a matter of "if" but "when", I will be looking out for 2 terms in the statement, one is "patience" the other is "considerable time", if the latter goes we are looking at June, that seems to be the market consensus, I however disagree with that consensus. (hence my trading this past week)

The FED has a dual mandate, unlike other Central Banks, both inflation and employment. The rate of employment needs to improve more to see a resultant effect in inflation as wages will rise, right now there are too many underemployed and part time workers in the system still. Low oil and a strong dollar are also not helping their mandates as seen in the changes of some of the earnings forecasts that came out this week.

We could easily see a further retrace in euro IF the fed signals that June is out the window and especially if anything is added to the statement.

At times like these you never look at the actual statement but at the differences between the previous one, that sets the trend. To avoid ambiguity, I am flat going into the FOMC and intend to trade the result, not the cause If I like what I see.

Today's FOMC is the biggest one we have seen in a while, Yellen is getting settled and today we could well get a clearer indication of the "when". Don't underestimate Yellen, she is doing a lot better than many give her credit for. We also have the new members voting for the first time today, 2 of whom are very public inflation hawks.
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #955,404
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:33am Jan 28, 2015 11:33am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Did you notice the monthly ABCD is the current low to the pip?
1.27 Extension, also .618 Ret area same timeframe, if we break parity will be exposed, now just need to find out whether this is just bounce and going to 1.618 or reversal from here. Still waiting for another pattern on smaller tfs for bigger position.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #955,405
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:38am Jan 28, 2015 11:38am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} 1.27 Extension, also .618 Ret area same timeframe, if we break parity will be exposed, now just need to find out whether this is just bounce and going to 1.618 or reversal from here. Still waiting for another pattern on smaller tfs for bigger position.
This

Technically, under normal circumstances this is reversal
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  • #955,406
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:39am Jan 28, 2015 11:39am
This is what I'm seeing, kids:

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  • #955,407
  • Edited 12:02pm Jan 28, 2015 11:39am | Edited 12:02pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} You probably won't understand the lecture itself, just scroll through the charts he's showing, they're labelled in English. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_VI...037FEF66DD78D6 In short: Germany is undercutting it's EZ-"partners" to raise its competiveness, lowering product prizes far beneath of those of its "partners" and basically giving away products by handing out loans for importing countries. In reality, that's multiple pressure on anyone, a vicious cycle. That's the short version. France is the only country...
it's true, the double problem in France(even if major problem is persisting 0% of yearly growth that eradicate any possible good future) is 1)the employement rate is only something like 60%(papy boom fault too many very old people, our system is we must pay for them(more taxes))... while germany have 75%, and 2)the wages that persist to increase faster than the productivity. so the factories are losing margin, so less money on the table and less innovation investments etc... and ofc its a loss of competitiveness... the French laws(very high minimum wages) and UMP/PS government makes it nearly impossible to decrease the wages(the problem is the actual president doesn't want to do it(OFC he is from PS...anti work partei assistantship partei) (and unfortunately the UMP doesn't want it too)...none of them want to touch the *very costly 100billion/year* 4 millions of Overwaged functionnaries(they are like the Mafioso KGB etc...untouchable they are useless(their work add nothing good to the country) and we can't dissmiss them(french laws)) the only way in france had always to increase productivity and our president fails at it, this is why he is so much hated... the unemployement keep increasing over 50 months in a row since 2009-2010, and the workers have to pay more taxes to compensate this constant drop of employement...the last factor that can help is the loss of money value itself that will brings wages down for all... even if it will ruin some populations that are already ultra poors...
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #955,408
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:41am Jan 28, 2015 11:41am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} This Technically, under normal circumstances this is reversal {image}


To classify it as a reversal or attempt to reverse I need to see a couple things more, reversal candles htf or candlestick pattern or harmonic pattern smaller tf D1 for eg.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #955,409
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:42am Jan 28, 2015 11:42am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} This Technically, under normal circumstances this is reversal {image}
You were singing a different tune earlier in the week when I cautioned the same were you not?

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Maybe a good chance for RR long back to 1670, with a stop below this latest LL... if we attempt and fail to close a LL I'll take the chance, maybe @ .11445. Hatch might scream at me.... So far, 1670 is almost 50% of the monthly candle. a MN close above 1209 would be bullish and support this theory imo.....I realize this is a 500+ pip move, so it may never make it with FOMC coming...then again it may skyrocket. Who knows, just reading the chart.
Quoting Ken A
Yes, long full margins 1.1209 is only part of the Daily (38.2/61.8) and Monthly LUM
  • #955,410
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:45am Jan 28, 2015 11:45am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} This Technically, under normal circumstances this is reversal {image}
Now let's see if goldfinch's hypothesis on Fed doves gives us the reason after the fact.
  • #955,411
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:46am Jan 28, 2015 11:46am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You were singing a different tune earlier in the week when I cautioned the same were you not? {quote} {quote}
Yes, I did because couldn't find reason for strong EUR
  • #955,412
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:48am Jan 28, 2015 11:48am
I think 1388 will decide, maybe last resort for bears today, though 60 right now might also provide some ressistance
  • #955,413
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:48am Jan 28, 2015 11:48am
Anyone expecting resistance line to be hit at 1.1455? Looks like a sexy sell in there.
  • #955,414
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:50am Jan 28, 2015 11:50am
Quoting Geppy
This is what I'm seeing, kids: {image}
Looks reasonable to me. Also still selling bounces.
  • #955,415
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:50am Jan 28, 2015 11:50am
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} The rate of employment needs to improve more to see a resultant effect in inflation as wages will rise, right now there are too many underemployed and part time workers in the system still. Low oil and a strong dollar are also not helping their mandates as seen in the changes of some of the earnings forecasts that came out this week. We could easily see a further retrace in euro IF the fed signals that June is out the window. At times like these you never look at the actual statement but at the differences between the previous one,...
the fed operates on the same employment statistics its has for decades, it may not be perfect. but that what it uses. using that the e-rate is the best its been in a decade+.. that's the system, whether u r me agree on that or not, i really dont think the fed cares.

wage inflation comes after high employment rates (not before), it always has. unemployment is low, higher wages should follow worker demand
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #955,416
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:51am Jan 28, 2015 11:51am
Quoting goldfinch
The FED will raise rates, not a matter of "if" but "when", I will be looking out for 2 terms in the statement, one is "patience" the other is "considerable time", if the latter goes we are looking at June, that seems to be the market consensus, I however disagree with that consensus. (hence my trading this past week) The FED has a dual mandate, unlike other Central Banks, both inflation and employment. The rate of employment needs to improve more to see a resultant effect in inflation as wages will rise, right now there are too many underemployed...
Really you think todays FOMC is one of most important lately? I dont think that at all. Rate hikes print has been delivered, if FED wont hike they wont give any clear signal today, if they cant hike they will give signal, but since as you said you think hiking will come, todays FOMC shouldnt deliver anything significant. Just my opinion.
  • #955,417
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:51am Jan 28, 2015 11:51am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Yes, I did because couldn't find reason for strong EUR
I still can't find one either to be honest.
  • #955,418
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:51am Jan 28, 2015 11:51am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Now let's see if goldfinch's hypothesis on Fed doves gives us the reason after the fact.

My opinions are generally opposed to the consensus and mainstream. I don't see the FED raising until Q2 2016 or even later.

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I still can't find one either to be honest.

How about a weaker dollar instead.
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #955,419
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:57am Jan 28, 2015 11:57am
Quoting NickMite
Anyone expecting resistance line to be hit at 1.1455? Looks like a sexy sell in there.
very likely as soon as we clear 1.1364-70 imo.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #955,420
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:57am Jan 28, 2015 11:57am
Quoting TheNoob
.the last factor that can help is the loss of money value itself that will brings wages down for all... even if it will ruin some populations that are already ultra poors...
...and that's the possible target-audience of Le Pen for 2017. Even if it's not a majority, they will get mobilized. We are doing the very same thing in Germany at the moment. Dumb and poor are in the streets propagating a very unpleasant kind of protectionism, while our president (with a minor P in the beginning) is repeating the same bullshit over and over.
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