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USD/CHF

  • #4,221
  • Jan 25, 2015 7:31pm Jan 25, 2015 7:31pm
Quoting Ken A
Why it's not going down
You already building long positions on this one Ken?
  • #4,222
  • Jan 25, 2015 11:09pm Jan 25, 2015 11:09pm
This pair moving at a much slower pace lately.... Bring back that crazy volatility! (and take her down)
  • #4,223
  • Jan 26, 2015 8:07am Jan 26, 2015 8:07am
Quoting Ck87
This pair moving at a much slower pace lately.... Bring back that crazy volatility! (and take her down)
Be careful on this pair man. EUR/USD is heading down, which prop up this pair, and on the other hand, the SNB seems to intervene the market out of the blue with EUR/CHF. If this continues, USD/CHF could swing back to .95 or .96 in 3 or 4 months, and will be waiting on FED cues in June meeting. Short term, a close above .9150 would valid this trade further, and if it breaks .86, we could see a test to .8350 again.

Many green pips!
  • #4,224
  • Jan 26, 2015 8:11am Jan 26, 2015 8:11am
Quoting phongvu12
{quote} Be careful on this pair man. EUR/USD is heading down, which prop up this pair, and on the other hand, the SNB seems to intervene the market out of the blue with EUR/CHF. If this continues, USD/CHF could swing back to .95 or .96 in 3 or 4 months, and will be waiting on FED cues in June meeting. Short term, a close above .9150 would valid this trade further, and if it breaks .86, we could see a test to .8350 again. Many green pips!
Took a loss of 100 pips, yeah i'm super bullish on this pair but thought it would bounce back lower, I should technically already be long .. was buying down at 8350 level and made a mistake not keeping that position... will start to buy on dips. Very bearish on CHF.
  • #4,225
  • Jan 26, 2015 8:38am Jan 26, 2015 8:38am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Took a loss of 100 pips, yeah i'm super bullish on this pair but thought it would bounce back lower, I should technically already be long .. was buying down at 8350 level and made a mistake not keeping that position... will start to buy on dips. Very bearish on CHF.
The fundamental forces which were compelling enough for the SNB to renege on their word and drop the 1.20 floor are still in effect. Given how severe the drop was some recovery might be possible but I wouldn't consider anything about this pair to be "super" bullish. What I would expect more of out of this pair is some sideways movement with a gradual, slow continued move down, only balanced by US dollar strength.
  • #4,226
  • Jan 26, 2015 8:52am Jan 26, 2015 8:52am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} The fundamental forces which were compelling enough for the SNB to renege on their word and drop the 1.20 floor are still in effect. Given how severe the drop was some recovery might be possible but I wouldn't consider anything about this pair to be "super" bullish. What I would expect more of out of this pair is some sideways movement with a gradual, slow continued move down, only balanced by US dollar strength.
That manipulation and basically fraud will lead to the loss of confidence in the CHF long term. USD strength has a long way to go as well.
  • #4,227
  • Jan 26, 2015 11:20am Jan 26, 2015 11:20am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} That manipulation and basically fraud will lead to the loss of confidence in the CHF long term. USD strength has a long way to go as well.
Fundamentally speaking, Swiss economy depends alot on export to other European country and tourism. With the swiss franc rocketed sky high vs the EUR and USD, this could leads to recession in the first quarter of 2015, which would leads to further depreciation for the CHF. The SNB also indicates that they will not hesitate to lower the interest rate which already deep in the negative to prevent inflow of fund in the country, and intervention when necessary. If the FED is on schedule to raise rate at all in 2015 (which I think they will at least for 1 rate hike either in June or Sep), we could see USD/CHF testing the yearly high at 1.02 at no time!

Just my 2 cents!
  • #4,228
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:35pm Jan 26, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting phongvu12
{quote} I agree with you that long USD/CHF is probably the best trade of this year considering all the swap and fundamental reason. If we're on schedule for raising interest rate by the FED, and the market settles after the biggest shock in 2 decades, I believe that it could get back to parity by the end of this year or early next year. I currently have long position from .86 and hoping to catch as much upside target as possible!
0.9 Today. I am feeling good. There is a gap from 0.97 down. In theory, gap must be closed. USD is strong across board so this gap down should be a uncessary surprise.
  • #4,229
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:39pm Jan 26, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting mry2001
{quote} 0.9 Today. I am feeling good. There is a gap from 0.97 down. In theory, gap must be closed. USD is strong across board so this gap down should be a uncessary surprise.
not necessarily !
  • #4,230
  • Jan 26, 2015 5:26pm Jan 26, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} You already building long positions on this one Ken?
Yep
  • #4,231
  • Jan 26, 2015 8:06pm Jan 26, 2015 8:06pm
Quoting arjang
{quote} not necessarily !
Of course some gaps never close. It is actually a good idea to trade in the direction of the gap. But Forex is a bullshit market, where ranging conditions dominate.
  • #4,232
  • Jan 27, 2015 1:19am Jan 27, 2015 1:19am
Quoting mry2001
{quote} Of course some gaps never close. It is actually a good idea to trade in the direction of the gap. But Forex is a bullshit market, where ranging conditions dominate.
Doesn't look like ranging conditions have been dominating the past 10 months or whatever.
  • #4,233
  • Jan 27, 2015 2:34am Jan 27, 2015 2:34am
Right, SNB is the strongest CB - appreciate 40%
  • #4,234
  • Jan 27, 2015 2:42am Jan 27, 2015 2:42am
Quoting Ken A
Right, SNB is the strongest CB - appreciate 40%
it depends how one looks rite. one would say japanezze is the strongest one
  • #4,235
  • Jan 27, 2015 2:46am Jan 27, 2015 2:46am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} it depends how one looks rite. one would say japanezze is the strongest one
Right, USDJPY from 77.50 to 121.844
  • #4,236
  • Jan 27, 2015 2:51am Jan 27, 2015 2:51am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Right, USDJPY from 77.50 to 121.844
japs
  • #4,237
  • Edited 4:03am Jan 30, 2015 2:12am | Edited 4:03am
Gues this pair is just going to go up every day without coming down ever, incredible and totally ridiculous wow. Speechless. Really annoying because I went against my plan to build a long position on this pair from -85 levels and here we are , oh well. It'll go way higher.
  • #4,238
  • Jan 31, 2015 3:24am Jan 31, 2015 3:24am
Srry to bother you guys, I have traded with usdchf before SCB decision. My position was filled at 0.8245 by my broker and leads to huge negative balance. Is this ok? I don't c too much complain here like eUR/CHF forum. Just need help if you guys have negative balance problems like me? And may I ask where is your filled position.....thanks so much
  • #4,239
  • Feb 2, 2015 4:47am Feb 2, 2015 4:47am
Attachment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF_H4.gif Size: 143 KB
  • #4,240
  • Edited 12:36pm Feb 9, 2015 12:25pm | Edited 12:36pm
On the H1 chart, the price is fluctuating inside a bearish channel. We are expecting a trendy move, if the price violates the top or button of the box.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd chf.gif Size: 77 KB
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