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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #407,181
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:45pm Jan 22, 2015 1:45pm
jeeps your not going to be able to work it out ,actually theres no need

Quoting swingtrader7
{quote} Back in July GBP was @72 and since then no bad news from UK even Scotland did not break from the mainland Housing market is flourishing, wages are increasing Claimant is lower, no trade deficit and WHAT made Pound to Travel South? Is this all retracement or just a currency war as i mentioned in my previous post?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #407,182
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:46pm Jan 22, 2015 1:46pm
monthly speaks volumes,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 -gbp USD monthly (DFB).png Size: 19 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #407,183
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:47pm Jan 22, 2015 1:47pm
Quoting Bones
jeeps your not going to be able to work it out ,actually theres no need {quote}
Fat Fingers,,,MM ?
  • #407,184
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:49pm Jan 22, 2015 1:49pm
Lets wait and see how the Asian will react to the Draghi;s Press conf!!!!
  • #407,185
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:54pm Jan 22, 2015 1:54pm
right your trading since 2007 ?

Quoting swingtrader7
Lets wait and see how the Asian will react to the Draghi;s Press conf!!!!
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #407,186
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:04pm Jan 22, 2015 2:04pm
Quoting Bones
monthly speaks volumes, {image}
7 months straight down, when was the last time this happened?
  • #407,187
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:17pm Jan 22, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting swingtrader7
{quote} Back in July GBP was @72 and since then no bad news from UK even Scotland did not break from the mainland Housing market is flourishing, wages are increasing Claimant is lower, no trade deficit and WHAT made Pound to Travel South? Is this all retracement or just a currency war as i mentioned in my previous post?
I only know draghi want parity for german needs or future USA / europe free commercial deal... And if eur down, gbp down. I'm newbie but this last lesson i had learn very good.
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #407,188
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:40pm Jan 22, 2015 2:40pm
its very bearish isn't it ,
I wasn't being rude just range 15034 support has been broke to downside ,eu falls 250 pips ..
I would be surprised to see 1.5 hold
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} 7 months straight down, when was the last time this happened?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #407,189
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:59pm Jan 22, 2015 2:59pm
if you ask how long can this go on for there is no rule I think I read 12 -13 somewhere ,at this point I can not see a way for reversal this month
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 1 gbp USD d1 use (DFB).png Size: 33 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #407,190
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:08pm Jan 22, 2015 3:08pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #407,191
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:22pm Jan 22, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting Bones
its very bearish isn't it , I wasn't being rude just range 15034 support has been broke to downside ,eu falls 250 pips .. I would be surprised to see 1.5 hold {quote}
Very bearish indeed, and stops below 1.5 just got triggered. Sell sell sell until it cannot go down anymore
  • #407,192
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:46pm Jan 22, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Very bearish indeed, and stops below 1.5 just got triggered. Sell sell sell until it cannot go down anymore
Curiously, they have broken a big level at 22'00, during the night...
  • #407,193
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:50pm Jan 22, 2015 3:50pm
agrh I hate this pair!! it's about to eat my top 10 position in a contest that will end in 20 hours
  • #407,194
  • Jan 22, 2015 4:03pm Jan 22, 2015 4:03pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} 7 months straight down, when was the last time this happened?
I also find this relentless drop in a straight line quite surprising. Of all the pairs, I would have expected cable to be somewhat more resilient, backed by the UK relative stronger economic fundamentals and by the only relative hawkish (at least up until yesterday) central bank together with the Fed and yet here we are, dropping 100's of pips every week through technical levels, support areas, like they don't exist.

I still maintain that the USD rally is overdone and if you look at the US data over the last couple of month a weakening economic trend is clearly starting to emerge, which I would expect in absence of FED QE. The market needs a catalyst and I think that could come if the FED starts to get the right picture from the data and changes its stance to a more dovish tone. That, combined with overstretched positioning, should eventually lead to a decent rally, particularly in cable.

So far a series of events, mainly linked to the BOE or the FED, has killed every attempt to rally, but the further we drop the closer we should get to turning point
  • #407,195
  • Jan 22, 2015 4:26pm Jan 22, 2015 4:26pm
In fact i was expecting it some months ago but it looked technically so obvious that that i was scared to enter right away and get trapped for that. At least during the scottish vote i expected some good spotst to enter but that didn't happen either not in this pair at least. Since then have hated gbpusd.
  • #407,196
  • Jan 22, 2015 11:26pm Jan 22, 2015 11:26pm
Quoting ez0770
{quote} I also find this relentless drop in a straight line quite surprising. Of all the pairs, I would have expected cable to be somewhat more resilient, backed by the UK relative stronger economic fundamentals and by the only relative hawkish (at least up until yesterday) central bank together with the Fed and yet here we are, dropping 100's of pips every week through technical levels, support areas, like they don't exist. I still maintain that the USD rally is overdone and if you look at the US data over the last couple of month a weakening economic...
Market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent.

Betting on a CB doing something as expected is pointless.
  • #407,197
  • Jan 22, 2015 11:45pm Jan 22, 2015 11:45pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent. Betting on a CB doing something as expected is pointless.
Wise words for sure, although you can make money trading against the trend, it just gets very hard to do with such a one way move...also, at this stage even trading with the trend has its risks and limitations given that after such a move the risk of a sharp reversal is ever increasing...

Some M&A news that might turn out to be a small positive for cable, more details should be announced today:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...5-billion.html
  • #407,198
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:21am Jan 23, 2015 2:21am
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morning ,,i dont know if that little move was stop hunting , if so we could see 4910 and below ,any move up 5025/5050/5110
  • #407,199
  • Jan 23, 2015 3:28am Jan 23, 2015 3:28am
I think GBP will be pushing down until Mark Carney gives some clarity over the BOE policy reaction to ECB QE.

My hope is that BOE will hold on the its current policy path, in which case GBP should recover along with mildly improving data.

But who knows whether Carney has other ideas in mind?

1.49-1.5 is historically significant, a bounce from here could be the long awaited proper retrace in the past 7 months.
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  • #407,200
  • Jan 23, 2015 3:41am Jan 23, 2015 3:41am
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gb reaction hit 5006 needs to be taken out before any advance target 5025/5050/5110 fail target 4900 area and below,,
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