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  • #952,781
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:41am Jan 22, 2015 2:41am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I think you maybe confuse on how options work both in the basics and how investors use them. In options you can be a holder or a writer and you can have a Call Option (which give you the Right to buy if you are holder or the Obligation to sell if you are writer) or you can have a Put Option (which is the opposite Right to sell or the Obligation to buy). Therefore there is no such a thing as a 2 way trading like a spot underlying. More importantly, options are seldom use by big banks for directional moves like that. They play options for...
hes a primo chartist too:-)
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #952,782
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:43am Jan 22, 2015 2:43am
Quoting PipTease
{quote} Hedging on a day like today may be a good idea IF you close at the HH or LL before PA reverses trend (assuming you're confident the trend has in fact reversed). Timing is essential here. What you also need to consider is when closing (in your case, your long) you may leave yourself exposed in terms of margin when you are -X pips on your short trade. You're only hedged and safe for as long as you are in both trades. Hope this makes sense.
Wouldn't profit from long go to equity and cover for short? Timing is essential in terms that I shouln't leave trade until I'm sure raid is over. The case I'm late with closing long is not really a problem if it is only a raid not reversal.

Btw quite nice stop hunt went on EU (40 pips).
  • #952,783
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:44am Jan 22, 2015 2:44am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} yesterday the PP has hold for buyers... i hope you all bought it at 1567...today is ECB day, let's see what will happens... {quote} the 1478 looks too low for today... we will probably only parking at PP 1609(130Pips higher)... {image}
y ECB day means parking normal S 1573 normal R 1617 for now... 1563 is the 23.6 and 1617 the 38.2...
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #952,784
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:51am Jan 22, 2015 2:51am
"At about 2:30 p.m. in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank president will probably commit to a quantitative-easing program that may exceed 1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion)"

what do you think - will that give the euro additional exhilaration the south?
  • #952,785
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:52am Jan 22, 2015 2:52am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} Hi KiwiTrada, still waiting for that one around 80,10 to enter, with all the expected volatility today it might offer.....
hey bro long time no see, 7926 is a decent support, for now just keeping an eye on yesterdays candle for now, especially the close, just might be a bottom forming, been a massive ride since May, 3 really nice monthly candles this ones running out of time, a doji would be nice,81 could prove key she looks like she wants another test now, maybe back to this months open anyways shit storm on the horizon tonight, prefer to sit this one out im thinking

bbl
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #952,786
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:52am Jan 22, 2015 2:52am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} naive to think big boys would play a naked single option trade... but what about retail customers? you know the suckers with money in deposits, trying to earn a few more % in interest by buying up an FX linked structured product..... well those are the guys who actually place a one direction trade and thats why big boys they would move to take those guys out, cuz they know these small retail traders would be knowlegable enough to find a way to hedge the direction. otherwise, well spotted. but back in the days, the banks actually do collaborate...
you keep talking about big boys. who are those big boys?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #952,787
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:57am Jan 22, 2015 2:57am
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} Wouldn't profit from long go to equity and cover for short? Timing is essential in terms that I shouln't leave trade until I'm sure raid is over. The case I'm late with closing long is not really a problem if it is only a raid not reversal. Btw quite nice stop hunt went on EU (40 pips).
Well. You're no longer +40 pips. But lets say you entered long when you were +40 on your short. You'd now be +40 on your long and -40 on your short which = 0 pips (less spread for each trade) so really, you're losing. But whilst hedged, I guess it allows you to reassess your position and add to your long or add another short depending on which way you see price headed.

How do you know it's a raid and not a reversal (beforehand), of course things are clearer given hindsight but what if price continues against your original trade?
It's what you do whilst hedged is what counts IMO.

I don't think that was a stop hunt
I'm just a small fish in a large pond; forever swimming against the tide.
  • #952,788
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:58am Jan 22, 2015 2:58am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} you keep talking about big boys. who are those big boys?
BOJ, ECB, FED, BOC, PBOC, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, etc etc <- Biggest of the Biggest boys...
BIS, IMF..... <- Supranational big boys.
HSBC, JPM, GS, CS, DB, CITI, UBS etc etc.... <- Multinational Big Boys.

Hedge Funds, Large Corporates <- Large Specs.
FX Retail Margin Trading clients, Retail Banking Clients <- Small specs
Bank Depositing Clients <- Risk averse small specs

this should give you an idea of the food chain....

so if you manage to interpret the BIGGEST of the BIGGEST boys and their tone, you can actually walk away making money in forex... but it means getting to know how the game is played. taking advantage of monetary policy changes and a shift of tone by policy makers.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,789
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:00am Jan 22, 2015 3:00am
ECB decision just a few hours away now...D day will finally be upon us
Time waits for no one
  • #952,790
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:02am Jan 22, 2015 3:02am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} BOJ, ECB, FED, BOC, PBOC, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, etc etc <- Biggest of the Biggest boys... BIS, IMF..... <- Supranational big boys. HSBC, JPM, GS, CS, DB, CITI, UBS etc etc.... <- Multinational Big Boys. Hedge Funds, Large Corporates <- Large Specs. FX Retail Margin Trading clients, Retail Banking Clients <- Small specs Bank Depositing Clients <- Risk averse small specs this should give you an idea of the food chain.... so if you manage to interpret the BIGGEST of the BIGGEST boys and their tone, you can actually walk away making money in...
But I do not think large corporates belong to the large spec category.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #952,791
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:02am Jan 22, 2015 3:02am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} but what about retail customers? you know the suckers with money in deposits, trying to earn a few more % in interest by buying up an FX linked structured product..... ?

...hence the FX rate rigging and interest rate rigging allegations.... its probably best to admit that it happens rather than be ignorant about this....
I think the retail customer on that side is negligible in relative terms and not worth the effort to hunt them.

On the other topic, oh yes Barclays and friends its only the tip of the iceberg and only get caught because of extreme stupidity and the typical cockeyness of some mid level hubris idiot "traders" in the food chain ....I don't think the OP was referring to that but to the misleading idea of options trading as a single option of buy or sell analysis....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #952,792
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:03am Jan 22, 2015 3:03am
Quoting PipTease
{quote} Well. You're no longer +40 pips. But lets say you entered long when you were +40 on your short. You'd now be +40 on your long and -40 on your short which = 0 pips (less spread for each trade) so really, you're losing. But whilst hedged, I guess it allows you to reassess your position and add to your long or add another short depending on which way you see price headed. How do you know it's a raid and not a reversal (beforehand), of course things are clearer given hindsight but what if price continues against your original trade? It's what...
Wouldn't it be +40 on long and 0 on short minus spread? I would not gain nor loss during hedge.
  • #952,793
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:04am Jan 22, 2015 3:04am
Quoting pipsonayacht
ECB decision just a few hours away now...D day will finally be upon us
does it mean we'll get the "D"??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,794
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:06am Jan 22, 2015 3:06am
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} Wouldn't it be +40 on long and 0 on short minus spread? I would not gain nor loss during hedge.
you're right and i explained it wrong.

Typically though (I speak for myself)...if I were to hedge I'd use hedging in place of a SL
I'm just a small fish in a large pond; forever swimming against the tide.
  • #952,795
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:06am Jan 22, 2015 3:06am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I think the retail customer on that side is negligible in relative terms and not worth the effort to hunt them. On the other topic, oh yes Barclays and friends its only the tip of the iceberg and only get caught because of extreme stupidity and the typical cockeyness of some mid level hubris idiot "traders" in the food chain ....I don't think the OP was referring to that but to the misleading idea of options trading as a single option of buy or sell analysis.... sisse
You certainly assume things here. How can you be sure others are confused about options?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #952,796
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:07am Jan 22, 2015 3:07am
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} Wouldn't it be +40 on long and 0 on short minus spread? I would not gain nor loss during hedge.
My bad, that is exactly what you said. I'm losing on hedge but with very big bounce I can lose much more.
  • #952,797
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:08am Jan 22, 2015 3:08am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} does it mean we'll get the "D"??
Lol. I certainly hope so!
Time waits for no one
  • #952,798
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:08am Jan 22, 2015 3:08am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I think the retail customer on that side is negligible in relative terms and not worth the effort to hunt them. On the other topic, oh yes Barclays and friends its only the tip of the iceberg and only get caught because of extreme stupidity and the typical cockeyness of some mid level hubris idiot "traders" in the food chain ....I don't think the OP was referring to that but to the misleading idea of options trading as a single option of buy or sell analysis.... sisse
also how can you be sure that others mislead here?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #952,799
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:15am Jan 22, 2015 3:15am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} You certainly assume things here. How can you be sure others are confused about options?
lol mate.... " hey, can anyone tell me whether big banks are sellers or buyers of options?"

The odds of an expert asking a question like this is 0 to none.... Plus I sincerely doubt the majority of readers here will have a huge expertise in options trading which to be honest is a lot more complex topic for any trader experienced or not.

I was trying to avoid misleading people asking or replying questions that are completely out of line for trading and posting a link to a proper source of education... so if you are an expert in options, well good for you. Just ignore my recommendation...

In any case, GL with your trading...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #952,800
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:20am Jan 22, 2015 3:20am
Quoting yaed
{quote} All timeframes, market is not divided into timeframes. I make a graphic, relative, dynamic picture of the human mind through S/R indies and so on. It cant be played less precise, that just wont work i think.
I think in general that is still what im doing.
My signature is: "Classified".
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