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  • #952,761
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:42am Jan 22, 2015 1:42am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} so like I stated: most commercials give a fuck on how the retails are positioned......., or where their SL's are
they don't? or they do?
i am saying they do give a fuck....
not just a floppy fuck, more like a pounding kind of fuck.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #952,762
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:45am Jan 22, 2015 1:45am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} its simple. Commercial contract is Net Long. Non-Commercial Contract is Net Short. if i told you commercial contract are the big boys, then that should tell you which direction the big boys may drive the EURUSD.... they will be driving it up..... and they might use the ECB conference despite announcment of QE, they might play their "Stop Hunting" game. drive the EURUSD up to kill the non-commercial short positions. bankers they hunt for stop losses to take contracts out for 2 reasons. 1. for themselves to enter short at better prices, when...
Quite Agree!
Fx Market is a Big-Fish Game. The rule is made by the "Commercials".
So, when little fishes "non-commercials" gathering, the food is prepared well. OK! tonight is Lunch Time ! yap!

The Fx retailers insiders have had the Stoploss hot area data on their desk.
The Investing Bankers have had the Option hot area data on desk too.
As for the "Knock-Out" area, I think it may around 1.70 to 1.73.

Thx
Hyci
  • #952,763
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:49am Jan 22, 2015 1:49am
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} I think they will stick to the leaked 50 bln/month. I'm far more worried about that little things around QE like will Germany or Greece participate, will every nation buy their bonds etc. That can cause panic that will drive euro into the abyss. Btw average range on eur/usd is usually about 200-300 pips. Stop haunts happen one in two times (!). That means that on very poor QE we can even see 1.2 again.
I dont thinks so.
1.2 is extremely high for the pullback.
No sense to reach such a high price.
  • #952,764
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:53am Jan 22, 2015 1:53am
I'm thinking now about hedgeing myself into EUR/USD. I'm currently short on 1.613. If I enter long now and price will raid then I will be completely safe and even catch some addidtional pips. If I enter long and price will go down I will leave both transactions with 40 pips of profit I already have minus new spread. If I do not enter long and price will raid I will be in dangerous trade with possible even hundreds of pips in red. If I do not enter long and price will fall then sweet, sweet profit for me. What do you guys think?
  • #952,765
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:58am Jan 22, 2015 1:58am
Quoting Dovilo
I'm thinking now about hedgeing myself into EUR/USD. I'm currently short on 1.613. If I enter long now and price will raid then I will be completely safe and even catch some addidtional pips. If I enter long and price will go down I will leave both transactions with 40 pips of profit I already have minus new spread. If I do not enter long and price will raid I will be in dangerous trade with possible even hundreds of pips in red. If I do not enter long and price will fall then sweet, sweet profit for me. What do you guys think?
if you afraid about your potition, closed and take profit now
if you afraid to get big loose if the price move the other side, put Stop loose
if you afraid........than don't trade today, peace man
  • #952,766
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:01am Jan 22, 2015 2:01am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i never said QE to start in january, i said ECB QE to occur Q1 2015, and Fed rate hike to occur Q2 of 2015. do you know what Q1, Q2 means?
ok good luck at waiting for your QE... all i see for now is down thing...
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  • #952,767
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:03am Jan 22, 2015 2:03am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} waiting waiting, low liquidity, low data, perfect opportunity for bastards to screw trader time au 81 kiwi @ top of 1hr bull flag / falling channel, patience patience my guess is "most traders got screwed lately" I had 1 short swissy, and 1 pending long EChf got screwed on them both, traders crave volatility, but volatility is when market and brokers screws the most BoC same ol same ol, volatility and platform freezes "bastards" Food for thought, ?what if USD explodes, where will the money trail go????
AU 81 just took another test, everything very similar to UC last night could be a keeper if she can pop through, expecting hard and fast, otherwise shes heading east ping pong
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #952,768
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:05am Jan 22, 2015 2:05am
Quoting Dovilo
I'm thinking now about hedgeing myself into EUR/USD. I'm currently short on 1.613. If I enter long now and price will raid then I will be completely safe and even catch some addidtional pips. If I enter long and price will go down I will leave both transactions with 40 pips of profit I already have minus new spread. If I do not enter long and price will raid I will be in dangerous trade with possible even hundreds of pips in red. If I do not enter long and price will fall then sweet, sweet profit for me. What do you guys think?
I think you just answered your own question bud..all up to your risk tolerance whether you want to let it run or "cover" your short now. Personally I like your choice of hedging now.
Time waits for no one
  • #952,769
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:10am Jan 22, 2015 2:10am
hey, can anyone tell me whether big banks are sellers or buyers of options?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #952,770
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:14am Jan 22, 2015 2:14am
Quoting ffleo
hey, can anyone tell me whether big banks are sellers or buyers of options?
retailers are still in short though..
  • #952,771
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:16am Jan 22, 2015 2:16am
Quoting Jhonllery
{quote} retailers are still in short though..
large speculators are also holding large net short.
Who the heck are those large specs?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #952,772
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:17am Jan 22, 2015 2:17am
Quoting gajebo
I Think I'll pass this ECB QE Announcement. My Bias is bear but seeing so many people shorting EUR make me rethink if I should enter a position. {image}

Where you get this figures from?
  • #952,773
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:23am Jan 22, 2015 2:23am
Quoting Dovilo
I'm thinking now about hedgeing myself into EUR/USD. I'm currently short on 1.613. If I enter long now and price will raid then I will be completely safe and even catch some addidtional pips. If I enter long and price will go down I will leave both transactions with 40 pips of profit I already have minus new spread. If I do not enter long and price will raid I will be in dangerous trade with possible even hundreds of pips in red. If I do not enter long and price will fall then sweet, sweet profit for me. What do you guys think?
Hedging on a day like today may be a good idea IF you close at the HH or LL before PA reverses trend (assuming you're confident the trend has in fact reversed). Timing is essential here. What you also need to consider is when closing (in your case, your long) you may leave yourself exposed in terms of margin when you are -X pips on your short trade. You're only hedged and safe for as long as you are in both trades.

Hope this makes sense.
I'm just a small fish in a large pond; forever swimming against the tide.
  • #952,774
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:33am Jan 22, 2015 2:33am
I shorted at 1.174 last week.
and I think ecb might reach there.

There will be large spike later announcement when there is uncertainties in the market, big spike wiping both short and long, then market will return normal.

1.18 max it can go.

If you can withstand such a spike, well done baby you're a good trader. Be prepared and watch the show
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #952,775
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:34am Jan 22, 2015 2:34am
Even we take the bankers aside~

Normal speculators are holding huge short side.
But the extreme quantity is building on the expectation of a huge QE amount.
Once the fact can't satisfy the huge appetite of retailers. Boom! The Support of short term downside crash!
Even the final trend is down, so what?
Your account has boomed before it starts to go down~
The huge number of non-commercial short-side is like a disaster to come.

I dont think 500 per month is enough for the aggressive retailers.
They(including me) want more to support the GREATEST DOWN of euro.

This is a thing about EXPECTATION and FACT.
The Crowed are crazy, everyone is talking about short euro.
Dare you in?
  • #952,776
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:34am Jan 22, 2015 2:34am
Quoting PipTease
{quote} Hedging on a day like today may be a good idea IF you close at the HH or LL before PA reverses trend (assuming you're confident the trend has in fact reversed). Timing is essential here. What you also need to consider is when closing (in your case, your long) you may leave yourself exposed in terms of margin when you are -X pips on your short trade. You're only hedged and safe for as long as you are in both trades. Hope this makes sense.
i made a profit in both positions (hedging) the opening of usa yesterday because of this.. timing is really really a must here and lowering the leverage is a good idea.
  • #952,777
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:35am Jan 22, 2015 2:35am
Quoting ffleo
hey, can anyone tell me whether big banks are sellers or buyers of options?
I think you maybe confuse on how options work both in the basics and how investors use them. In options you can be a holder or a writer and you can have a Call Option (which give you the Right to buy if you are holder or the Obligation to sell if you are writer) or you can have a Put Option (which is the opposite Right to sell or the Obligation to buy). Therefore there is no such a thing as a 2 way trading like a spot underlying.

More importantly, options are seldom use by big banks for directional moves like that. They play options for a variety of very different reasons from speculators on volatility to hedging and everything in between but RARELY alone for directional moves. Also options are not played alone (e.g call option) but in a variety of combinations and synthetics (eg. straddles, butterflies, iron condors, etc ) and more complex strategies...

In simple words, there is naive to think that "Big banks" just call each other and decide to take one single directional trade and second it will be impossible to tell exactly what each holder is doing with their options as there will be almost unlimited opposite combinations...

If you are interested in options try the CBOE learning centre (http://www.cboe.com/learncenter/) highly recommended to start with or drop a line to The Fool in FF in his thread "lets trade options" he is one of the real and good ones in FF...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #952,778
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:37am Jan 22, 2015 2:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} s/o with a red one.. target hit w/o going back to norm first
1.4372/9 should be norm?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #952,779
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:38am Jan 22, 2015 2:38am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} AU 81 just took another test, everything very similar to UC last night could be a keeper if she can pop through, expecting hard and fast, otherwise shes heading east ping pong
Hi KiwiTrada,
still waiting for that one around 80,10 to enter, with all the expected volatility today it might offer.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #952,780
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:40am Jan 22, 2015 2:40am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I think you maybe confuse on how options work both in the basics and how investors use them. In options you can be a holder or a writer and you can have a Call Option (which give you the Right to buy if you are holder or the Obligation to sell if you are writer) or you can have a Put Option (which is the opposite Right to sell or the Obligation to buy). Therefore there is no such a thing as a 2 way trading like a spot underlying. More importantly, options are seldom use by big banks for directional moves like that. They play options for...
naive to think big boys would play a naked single option trade...
but what about retail customers? you know the suckers with money in deposits, trying to earn a few more % in interest by buying up an FX linked structured product.....
well those are the guys who actually place a one direction trade and thats why big boys they would move to take those guys out, cuz they know these small retail traders would be knowlegable enough to find a way to hedge the direction.

otherwise, well spotted. but back in the days, the banks actually do collaborate to move fx rate one way or the other.
hence the FX rate rigging and interest rate rigging allegations....
its probably best to admit that it happens rather than be ignorant about this....

im not a religious nut but even believers of god believes in the existence of satan and devils.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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