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EURUSD

  • #952,741
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:56am Jan 22, 2015 12:56am
My take on EURUSD
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 38 KB
  • #952,742
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:57am Jan 22, 2015 12:57am
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} I think it's because commercials nee to take opposite trade to noncommercial in Market Maker system. What we saw yesterday was a stop hunt but another one will come, probably we will see 1.163 again but I doubt in next upside target 1.175
im glad someone here knows how the game is played. but yea i wont be surprised if they wipe out 1.17, theres a large option barrier there about 2billion usd there....
they might hit that and wipe a lot of retail short traders...... but i will look to it as a chance to short at 1.17
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,743
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:58am Jan 22, 2015 12:58am
Expecting Euro to plunge and then rise...
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #952,744
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:02am Jan 22, 2015 1:02am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} its simple. Commercial contract is Net Long. Non-Commercial Contract is Net Short. if i told you commercial contract are the big boys, then that should tell you which direction the big boys may drive the EURUSD.... they will be driving it up..... and they might use the ECB conference despite announcment of QE, they might play their "Stop Hunting" game. drive the EURUSD up to kill the non-commercial short positions. bankers they hunt for stop losses to take contracts out for 2 reasons. 1. for themselves to enter short at better prices, when...

If it would be that easy for the COT data LOL

I tell you what: most comercials give a fuck on where SL are positioned. Their main business is hedging...........
  • #952,745
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:05am Jan 22, 2015 1:05am
MY PLan for the ECB release

If the 50% fib holds around 1.1570 to 60 area i think that is good place to go long. my plan is entering with a signal there and placing the stop @ be while the PA crosses above 1.1600 with TP 1.1700
Read the chart... Fundies are catalyst...
  • #952,746
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:05am Jan 22, 2015 1:05am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} If it would be that easy for the COT data LOL I tell you what: most comercials give a fuck on where SL are positioned. Their main business is hedging...........
sure. tell that to the bucket shop brokers.
tell me why else would brokers give you a 1:400 leverage if they know for a fact that you are going to lose?
because they are behind placing 400 lots against when you place 1 lot long, they would want to drive the market down so their 400 lot makes more. take your puny 1 lot trade off the table so they too can get out of the trade in profit while you lost on your 1 lot long.
and by the way.
the retail positions im not talking about us small retail traders...
im talking about all those Retail fx productsl ike FX structured notes, premium deposits, they all have a targeted strike level. thats how you got option barriers and thats why banks love to move the market to a level with the largest volume option barriers.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,747
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:07am Jan 22, 2015 1:07am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} its simple. Commercial contract is Net Long. Non-Commercial Contract is Net Short. if i told you commercial contract are the big boys, then that should tell you which direction the big boys may drive the EURUSD.... they will be driving it up..... and they might use the ECB conference despite announcment of QE, they might play their "Stop Hunting" game. drive the EURUSD up to kill the non-commercial short positions. bankers they hunt for stop losses to take contracts out for 2 reasons. 1. for themselves to enter short at better prices, when...
Thanks. I understand, that, the overall trend on EURUSD is down and that the big players will eventually head south. The CFTC report shows however the direction, which is probable as an illusive move to make small players take position counter trend, during today. So my conclusion is that CFTC reports should be referred to as a guide for the nearest direction a currency should take, but if this guide is counter trade, then eventually the trend will be followed.

Regards
Mike
  • #952,748
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:09am Jan 22, 2015 1:09am
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} I think it's because commercials need to take opposite trade to noncommercial in Market Maker system. What we saw yesterday was a stop hunt but another one will come, probably we will see 1.163 again but I doubt in next upside target 1.175
Thanks.
  • #952,749
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:09am Jan 22, 2015 1:09am
Quoting Michael O.
{quote} Thanks. I understand, that, the overall trend on EURUSD is down and that the big players will eventually head south. The CFTC report shows however the direction, which is probable as an illusive move to make small players take position counter trend, during today. So my conclusion is that CFTC reports should be referred to as a guide for the nearest direction a currency should take, but if this guide is counter trade, then eventually the trend will be followed. Regards Mike
thats why i dont trade pullbacks....
i let pullbacks be realized and i take the opportunities to get back trading WITH the trend.]

but hey this is just my way of trading.
some people here doesnt mind entering counter trend trades, but am very strict against it.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,750
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:20am Jan 22, 2015 1:20am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} thats why i dont trade pullbacks.... i let pullbacks be realized and i take the opportunities to get back trading WITH the trend.] but hey this is just my way of trading. some people here doesnt mind entering counter trend trades, but am very strict against it.
That's wise. Even if you enter a realised pullback too early, than, depending on the depo, you can wait patiently, knowing it will get back with trend. I have too rules, I don't usually break.

1. I trade with the trend
2. I use my depo, so, to allow me withstand over 1000 pips moves.

Regards
Mike
  • #952,751
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:22am Jan 22, 2015 1:22am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Well... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post7973025
I was on vacation and did not notice that. Thanks for that note.
  • #952,752
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:23am Jan 22, 2015 1:23am
The EURUSD is up ahead of the ECB and lesser than the forecast amount of the QE can fuel the pair's rally towards 1.1730; however, Draghi is a tough nut to forecast. Fingers Crossed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 34 KB
  • #952,753
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:28am Jan 22, 2015 1:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} short ea 4340 against 4372. for 4100
s/o with a red one.. target hit w/o going back to norm first
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #952,754
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:32am Jan 22, 2015 1:32am
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} I was on vacation and did not notice that. Thanks for that note.
I was having a look at what he was doing, since i think he is one of the few who has some knowledge of any worth.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #952,755
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:35am Jan 22, 2015 1:35am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} sure. tell that to the bucket shop brokers. tell me why else would brokers give you a 1:400 leverage if they know for a fact that you are going to lose? because they are behind placing 400 lots against when you place 1 lot long, they would want to drive the market down so their 400 lot makes more. take your puny 1 lot trade off the table so they too can get out of the trade in profit while you lost on your 1 lot long.

the bucket shop brokers are to be found in the category of large speculators, aren't they?
  • #952,756
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:36am Jan 22, 2015 1:36am
Quoting Fx_Anil
The EURUSD is up ahead of the ECB and lesser than the forecast amount of the QE can fuel the pair's rally towards 1.1730; however, Draghi is a tough nut to forecast. Fingers Crossed. {image}
I think they will stick to the leaked 50 bln/month. I'm far more worried about that little things around QE like will Germany or Greece participate, will every nation buy their bonds etc. That can cause panic that will drive euro into the abyss.

Btw average range on eur/usd is usually about 200-300 pips. Stop haunts happen one in two times (!). That means that on very poor QE we can even see 1.2 again.
  • #952,757
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:37am Jan 22, 2015 1:37am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} the bucket shop brokers are to be found in the category of large speculators, aren't they?
yep

bucket shop brokers are just like the treasury of a bank only thing is treasury of a bank has a much larger pot size to hold onto trades...
but essentially large specs especially the institutional ones are definitely on the other side of a trade against retail positions....
retail positions im not just talking about forex factory type retail traders....
retail positions also includes people who may have bought FX related Structured products, like FX Linked interest notes. FX linked Premium Deposits,
FX digital baskets, FX bull/bear notes. these products are sold to the retail public.

the banks avoid the higher payout to clients on these products. so they drive it towards strike point to make sure if the execution price goes below the strike, the clients would be in loss or at a lower payout.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,758
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:39am Jan 22, 2015 1:39am
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} I think they will stick to the leaked 50 bln/month. I'm far more worried about that little things around QE like will Germany or Greece participate, will every nation buy their bonds etc. That can cause panic that will drive euro into the abyss. Btw average range on eur/usd is usually about 200-300 pips. Stop haunts happen one in two times (!). That means that on very poor QE we can even see 1.2 again.
I agree with your points that say some European nations can disagree to the plan and may fuel uncertainty into the market. Moreover, the stop-haunts are likely to happen with wider margin as Draghi can say something troublesome.
  • #952,759
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:40am Jan 22, 2015 1:40am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} yep

so like I stated: most commercials give a fuck on how the retails are positioned......., or where their SL's are
  • #952,760
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:41am Jan 22, 2015 1:41am
Quoting yaed
{quote} I was having a look at what he was doing, since i think he is one of the few who has some knowledge of any worth.
True. He explains things in simple terms for layman like me I am not surprised to see Chicky as author. I hardly understand professionals arguing here on every spike.
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