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  • #952,721
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:16pm Jan 21, 2015 11:16pm
Too much volatility and unpredictability around the announcement and press conference, could go either way. even before the announcementthere could be profit taking. I am taking my profit now and staying out.
  • #952,722
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:40pm Jan 21, 2015 11:40pm
i just lowered my leverage, but definitely not staying out. don't want to miss the ball game.
  • #952,723
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:11am Jan 22, 2015 12:11am
Quoting Pharm0r
Ok, lets get something straight about tomorrow, whether you are new or not.... 1. EXPECT broker blackouts 2. EXPECT huge spreads (50+) 3. EXPECT to be stopped out if your SL is not 100 pips + 4. EXPECT a massive swing in BOTH directions 5. DO NOT put in a market order under ANY circumstances. Spread can and WILL screw you without warning 6. FOR GOD'S SAKE DO NOT OVER LEVERAGE. YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A 100 PIP DRAW DOWN AT LESS THAN 2% Your brokers have warned you, you saw the shit from SNB, if you go negative- they will get your ass. Don't...
Very true.

Regards
Mike
  • #952,724
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:12am Jan 22, 2015 12:12am
Breaking news: ECB will stagger the bond buying to 50 billion per month until it sees some type of sustainable growth.
we may not see that big euro drop traders were hoping for tomorrow....
  • #952,725
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:20am Jan 22, 2015 12:20am
Quoting joemiami
Breaking news: ECB will stagger the bond buying to 50 billion per month until it sees some type of sustainable growth. we may not see that big euro drop traders were hoping for tomorrow....
It is little bit late, Its been out for 16 hours.
  • #952,726
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:21am Jan 22, 2015 12:21am
Quoting joemiami
Breaking news: ECB will stagger the bond buying to 50 billion per month until it sees some type of sustainable growth. we may not see that big euro drop traders were hoping for tomorrow....
thats an increased easing buddy. market expectation for 2015 is 500 billion euro. 50 billion per month for 12 months is 600 billion.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #952,727
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:22am Jan 22, 2015 12:22am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} ...thx for the compliment...i don't need you to trust me...why say this?...useless comment...i don't trust YOU TOO when you talk about your FANCIFUL "QE" from ECB? that is to your mind suposed to start "only in january"?...the "QE", even if its an improper word, has already started 3 months ago, when they broke the old 2340 support and today will probably adds some minors things to it...
i never said QE to start in january, i said ECB QE to occur Q1 2015, and Fed rate hike to occur Q2 of 2015. do you know what Q1, Q2 means?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #952,728
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:24am Jan 22, 2015 12:24am
Quoting gajebo
I Think I'll pass this ECB QE Announcement. My Bias is bear but seeing so many people shorting EUR make me rethink if I should enter a position. {image}
thats only oanda's client position. look to CFTC reports. for better idea if it is net short or net long euro.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #952,729
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:26am Jan 22, 2015 12:26am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} thats only oanda's client position. look to CFTC reports. for better idea if it is net short or net long euro.
any link where to get the data?
  • #952,730
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:33am Jan 22, 2015 12:33am
Does anyone expects a crazy move to 1508 in current 4H?
  • #952,731
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:34am Jan 22, 2015 12:34am
Quoting gajebo
{quote} any link where to get the data?
if you can read it.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,732
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:39am Jan 22, 2015 12:39am
Anyone can tell me, why nu keep falling without news?
  • #952,733
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:40am Jan 22, 2015 12:40am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} if you can read it. http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm
can't read it
So I'll just use the data from Oanda, DailyFx and ForexFactory. All of them shows more traders short EUR and I think that would be enough for now...
  • #952,734
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:45am Jan 22, 2015 12:45am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} if you can read it. http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm
Thanks fxtyrant.

From the report, non-commercial traders are short.
While commercial traders are long.

Just reading for knowledge.
  • #952,735
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:47am Jan 22, 2015 12:47am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} A lot of people simply don't grasp the imbalance of military power the US holds above other countries. They are literally the modern version of the Roman Empire- but if the Roman Empire was 2-5 times larger compared to the other militaries of its time. Nukes are the equalizer- thus why US lobbies so hard to keep them regulated. Ironic the US developed the weapon that can render all their hard work null and void. The silver lining being- nukes pretty much render whatever they hit useless for the next 200 years... Also Ironic that Russia developed...
Acutally, and im not an expert but a i know a thing or two about it: There are a BUNCH of different kinds of radiation and A BUNCH of different kinds of radioactive materials. Some take hundreds of thousands of years before the radioactivity halves.

But there are hydrogen bombs you see, they detonate with a small atombomb effect first and then comes the hydrogen thing. They dont create much radiation but a of big fucking holes in the ground and a lot of blown up stuff.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #952,736
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:48am Jan 22, 2015 12:48am
Quoting gajebo
{quote} can't read it So I'll just use the data from Oanda, DailyFx and ForexFactory. All of them shows more traders short EUR and I think that would be enough for now...
so if a lot of retail traders are short. what would the big boys likely do?
well ill tell you what they would do... they will hunt for stops, try to take out the short traders.

imagine you are holding short at 1.16 with SL at 1.1650, the big boys will move eurusd up to 1.1650 to kill your trade before they let the EURUSD fall further.

i am expecting stop runs to happen especially on an increased volatility on ECB conference. BUT! the overall trend is down because QE is still coming whether we like it or not.
and Fed will hike rates whether you like it or not.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,737
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:49am Jan 22, 2015 12:49am
Quoting Magicmen
Where is Chicky? I miss his philosophical samples (and examples)
Well...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post7973025
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #952,738
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:50am Jan 22, 2015 12:50am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} if you can read it. http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm
Hi Tyrant,

don't know if I interpret it right, but looking at the CFTC data you provided, it seems, that for every currency, the non commericial contracts are in opposite relation, to the commerial ones. So if for exampe Euro Fx has in non commercial: long: 50,858 compared to: 218,709 short, the Euro Fx commerical has: long: 331,934 compared to short: 106,709.

My question is. Does it show, that the commercial contracts, foresee the Euro going long, where as the non commercial contracts foresee the Euro depreciating? Or is it more complicated than that?

Regards
Mike
  • #952,739
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:56am Jan 22, 2015 12:56am
Quoting Michael O.
{quote} Hi Tyrant, don't know if I interpret it right, but looking at the CFTC data you provided, it seems, that for every currency, the non commericial contracts are in opposite relation, to the commerial ones. So if for exampe Euro Fx has in non commercial: long: 50,858 compared to: 218,709 short, the Euro Fx commerical has: long: 331,934 compared to short: 106,709. My question is. Does it show, that the commercial contracts, foresee the Euro going long, where as the non commercial contracts foresee the Euro depreciating? Or is it more complicated...
I think it's because commercials need to take opposite trade to noncommercial in Market Maker system.

What we saw yesterday was a stop hunt but another one will come, probably we will see 1.163 again but I doubt in next upside target 1.175
  • #952,740
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:56am Jan 22, 2015 12:56am
Quoting Michael O.
{quote} Hi Tyrant, don't know if I interpret it right, but looking at the CFTC data you provided, it seems, that for every currency, the non commericial contracts are in opposite relation, to the commerial ones. So if for exampe Euro Fx has in non commercial: long: 50,858 compared to: 218,709 short, the Euro Fx commerical has: long: 331,934 compared to short: 106,709. My question is. Does it show, that the commercial contracts, foresee the Euro going long, where as the non commercial contracts foresee the Euro depreciating? Or is it more complicated...
its simple.
Commercial contract is Net Long.
Non-Commercial Contract is Net Short.

if i told you commercial contract are the big boys, then that should tell you which direction the big boys may drive the EURUSD....
they will be driving it up..... and they might use the ECB conference despite announcment of QE, they might play their "Stop Hunting" game. drive the EURUSD up to kill the non-commercial short positions.
bankers they hunt for stop losses to take contracts out for 2 reasons. 1. for themselves to enter short at better prices, when they cleared the board full of shorters....
or 2. they are looking for where a big option order comes in and they will try to trigger it, cuz its profit for them.

now. i wouldnt be surprised if EURUSD moves up despite bad EURO news coming soon, but this should be regarded as a "stop hunt" a strategy by the big boys to rid the board clean of retail traders who are in short....
they will drive the EURUSD up to make the illusion to convince the retail traders to go long... so they can go short at better prices.... so dont get tricked into longing if it does rise.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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