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  • #4,201
  • Jan 19, 2015 9:57am Jan 19, 2015 9:57am
Quoting Pmd1963
{quote} Swiss National Bank will continue to intervene, just not with a PEG. They can't afford for their currency to be this strong. They are probably targeting EURCHF 1.10. Negative interest rates, SNB intervention to weaken CHF and poor economic performance (exports) going forward due to strong CHF will weaken CHF. Also, technically, retracement to .88 area (23% Fib, already hit once) and .91 area (.38 Fib) are likely. At this point Gold is a better hedge for safety than CHF. You have to pay for storage, but CHF you have to pay interest. I would...
All good points....but lets not forget the "Carry Trade"....borrow and sell senario...Swiss yields are at the bottom of the food chain
I may not be right...BUT, I am never wrong
  • #4,202
  • Jan 19, 2015 1:05pm Jan 19, 2015 1:05pm
Say, has anyone heard from their brokers as to when Swissie cross margin requirements will be returned to some kind of sane level? FXCM is requiring 10 x, for example, what a USD/JPY trade would need in margin ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #4,203
  • Jan 19, 2015 2:11pm Jan 19, 2015 2:11pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Say, has anyone heard from their brokers as to when Swissie cross margin requirements will be returned to some kind of sane level? FXCM is requiring 10 x, for example, what a USD/JPY trade would need in margin ... .
Mine was never changed with MB Trading
  • #4,204
  • Edited Jan 20, 2015 3:21am Jan 19, 2015 2:50pm | Edited Jan 20, 2015 3:21am
view at extreme move in usdchf

technical analysis:
- more interesting is USD/CHF chart (despite the fact that everyone is talking about EUR/CHF)
- announcement of Swiss National bank concernig end of cap… from 1,02389 USD/CHF ( selling opportunity):
a/ bearish harmonics weekly zone (gartley bearish) – USD/CHF weekly chart.
b/ murrey match last line +2/8 is 1,02539 USD/CHF – great daily resistance
- then huge fall to 0,77792 USD/CHF (murrey line – major line 4/8 is 0,78125 – on weekly and monthly chart) – it was great weekly and monthly support
- then correction (buying opportunity) to 0,87891 USD/CHF (daily murrey line 4/8 – major line)

more on http://www.finila.com/end-of-swiss-f...lines-trading/
  • #4,205
  • Jan 19, 2015 2:56pm Jan 19, 2015 2:56pm
Quoting teddybomber
{quote} Mine was never changed with MB Trading
Thanks. Well, the Swissie's got a bit of sorting out to do after last week anyways. I'm keeping an eye on USD/CHF for a long going forward, but it might be weeks before a set-up occurs ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #4,206
  • Jan 19, 2015 4:21pm Jan 19, 2015 4:21pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Thanks. Well, the Swissie's got a bit of sorting out to do after last week anyways. I'm keeping an eye on USD/CHF for a long going forward, but it might be weeks before a set-up occurs ... .
The spread is still quite ridiculous as well. 13 as I'm looking at it right now, too rich for my blood (depends on your broker too, of course).
  • #4,207
  • Jan 19, 2015 4:25pm Jan 19, 2015 4:25pm
Quoting Spartanholds
{quote} All good points....but lets not forget the "Carry Trade"....borrow and sell senario...Swiss yields are at the bottom of the food chain
Good point. Another good reason for CHF to weaken against the dollar.
  • #4,208
  • Jan 19, 2015 4:43pm Jan 19, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting Pmd1963
{quote} I would rather hold gold or USD than CHF. CHF has lost its safety appeal as far as I am concerned. Some others will probably start to feel the same way.
That is why LONG USD/CHF is going to prevail. At least for a while. The question now is what are the corporations, multi-millionaires, billionaires are going to convert their CHF holdings with? USD, GOLD? yes! NZD, AUD maybe?
  • #4,209
  • Jan 19, 2015 7:44pm Jan 19, 2015 7:44pm
there are rumors that after ECB releasing QE, SNB will peg their currency again to USD at 1.0000.
Wonder if that could be true, what do you guys think?
  • #4,210
  • Jan 19, 2015 7:57pm Jan 19, 2015 7:57pm
Quoting gajebo
there are rumors that after ECB releasing QE, SNB will peg their currency again to USD at 1.0000. Wonder if that could be true, what do you guys think?
Haven't heard anything about that. Have links to actually back it up?
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #4,211
  • Edited 11:31pm Jan 19, 2015 11:21pm | Edited 11:31pm
Short around 8790... going for a couple hundred pips probably.. too many longs, gotta slaughter. Source: IG mkts Long term I think USD/CHF this low is totally unsustainable and soon enough will rally massively... But first maybe test 80 level? hmm we shall see.
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  • #4,212
  • Jan 19, 2015 11:34pm Jan 19, 2015 11:34pm
Quoting Ck87
Short around 8790... going for a couple hundred pips probably.. too many longs, gotta slaughter. Source: IG mkts Long term I think USD/CHF this low is totally unsustainable and soon enough will rally massively... But first maybe test 80 level? hmm we shall see. {image}
that data is based off at MAX 500 account... seems really unsubstantial to me to base a decision.
  • #4,213
  • Jan 19, 2015 11:39pm Jan 19, 2015 11:39pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} that data is based off at MAX 500 account... seems really unsubstantial to me to base a decision.
Oanda at 73% longs, but yes that's pretty true overall.
  • #4,214
  • Jan 20, 2015 12:38am Jan 20, 2015 12:38am
Why it's not going down
  • #4,215
  • Jan 21, 2015 7:27am Jan 21, 2015 7:27am
I see many traders have switched their focus away from CHF rapidly. That "black swan" the SNB made really worked on fx traders. I can't say anything optimistic about any EU currencies and the CHF is included. I think a top is reached at CHF/JPY, and if it seems that way against other currencies as well then one should take a break and reconsider recent events.

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  • #4,216
  • Jan 21, 2015 5:04pm Jan 21, 2015 5:04pm
Quoting Ck87
Short around 8790... going for a couple hundred pips probably.. too many longs, gotta slaughter. Source: IG mkts Long term I think USD/CHF this low is totally unsustainable and soon enough will rally massively... But first maybe test 80 level? hmm we shall see. {image}
quick drop like this is often fully retraced. In less than a year, this will go back to 1.0 and above. we shall see. i bought 2 lots even though I do not like forex anymore.. It is 10 times worse than stocks.
  • #4,217
  • Jan 21, 2015 5:12pm Jan 21, 2015 5:12pm
the swap is impressive. Hope it will not go back to 0 anytime soon.
  • #4,218
  • Jan 23, 2015 11:36am Jan 23, 2015 11:36am
Quoting mry2001
the swap is impressive. Hope it will not go back to 0 anytime soon.
thinking if I should buy more.. Should be one of the best trades in 2015. The only similar event in my memory is the JPY rally when a strong earth quake hit Japan in 2011. In contrast to common sense that JPY should fall when disaster happened, JPY shoot up like a rocket to rob the crowd. After a few month, JPY went back to where it came from, but the damage is done. Numerous little guys like me lost money in that event.
  • #4,219
  • Jan 23, 2015 3:54pm Jan 23, 2015 3:54pm
Quoting mry2001
{quote} thinking if I should buy more.. Should be one of the best trades in 2015. The only similar event in my memory is the JPY rally when a strong earth quake hit Japan in 2011. In contrast to common sense that JPY should fall when disaster happened, JPY shoot up like a rocket to rob the crowd. After a few month, JPY went back to where it came from, but the damage is done. Numerous little guys like me lost money in that event.
I agree with you that long USD/CHF is probably the best trade of this year considering all the swap and fundamental reason. If we're on schedule for raising interest rate by the FED, and the market settles after the biggest shock in 2 decades, I believe that it could get back to parity by the end of this year or early next year. I currently have long position from .86 and hoping to catch as much upside target as possible!
  • #4,220
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:54pm Jan 25, 2015 6:54pm
Short again above 88. Looking for another few hundred pips, I think this time it might actually go to new lows. Long term I'm super bullish on USD/CHF and believe swiss franc will get obliterated, but not just yet.. I could be wrong though. Always impossible to time things. I would definitely consider building a Long equity millipede at 80 level or below.
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