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EUR/CHF

  • #14,121
  • Edited Jan 18, 2015 5:19am Jan 17, 2015 12:04pm | Edited Jan 18, 2015 5:19am
Here is an interesting text:

http://forexmagnates.com/foreign-exc...surpass-1-bln/
  • #14,122
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:06pm Jan 17, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} So you are upset because you feel lied to?? As I said before, charts don't lie, and there are always insiders. There was market based warning.
They didn't lie to me, they lied to the world!! It's not my girlfriend who i'll dump if done similar thing, it's a fxcking central bank that must have credibility.

Swiss National Bank proved to be worse than politicians, twist of opinion or decision wasn't ever this fast!!

No CB have ever done what Swiss NB had done!!
  • #14,123
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:08pm Jan 17, 2015 12:08pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} If you watch charts you notice things happening that should not be happening. The SNB releasing the peg was pure chance. Getting short based on what the chart tells you is not.
I always look at the charts not fundamentals, 100% knew that something gonna happen soon, but was 95% sure it was gonna be an intervention or at worst some spike, not a surprise removal of floor!
  • #14,124
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:11pm Jan 17, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting Harris27
{quote} A CB is not a bucketshop, spreading promises or sureness of cap importance, day in day out, the last was Danthine words few days ago, to suddenly do the opposite. Let alone coming from myself who stands for his word = CREDIBLE, not the INCREDIBLE Swiss National Bank, if you know the difference between both other than the "IN"!
The great thing is, I don't, nor will, care about what central banks say or do. So, get ready to say the Fed, ECB and BoJ are INcredible. It's like everytime Bullard says there is a rate hike coming and traders eat that shite up, then month after month no hike. Oh, wait. Markets going down? We don't need to hike, QE for longer... he says.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #14,125
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:18pm Jan 17, 2015 12:18pm
Quoting Harris27
{quote} They didn't lie to me, they lied to the world!! It's not my girlfriend who i'll dump if done similar thing, it's a fxcking central bank that must have credibility. Swiss National Bank proved to be worse than politicians, twist of opinion or decision wasn't ever this fast!! No CB have ever done what Swiss NB had done!!
I could be that I am jaded from living in the States, but ANY talking head on TV must be taken with a grain of salt. The SNB said that would defend the peg. What else were they supposed to say? They very well would not say they are going to drop that thing like the turd sandwich that it was, now would they???

I will say again, the charts did warn that something was seriously wrong. I had stops in place to get me in on last Thursday, but I have done moves like that in real time. Your first clue will be that the spreads will get wide. Price will be moving so fast that you stop putting in limit orders and just get in at the market. You can feel that something big is going on.

I am speaking to you as a trader, Harris. Yep, the SNB lied. They all will if you stay in this game long enough.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #14,126
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:19pm Jan 17, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} The great thing is, I don't, nor will, care about what central banks say or do. So, get ready to say the Fed, ECB and BoJ are INcredible. It's like everytime Bullard says there is a rate hike coming and traders eat that shite up, then month after month no hike. Oh, wait. Markets going down? We don't need to hike, QE for longer... he says.
I give a Sxht about what draghi, yellen, bullard and others say, never traded according to what they say but what my chart says.

The Swiss NB situation is totally different than that, its policy was very clear, defending the 1.20 with utmost determination and unlimited bullSxxt, the worst was that they assured it till the last minute, betrayal in no time!!!
  • #14,127
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:19pm Jan 17, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting Harris27
{quote} I always look at the charts not fundamentals, 100% knew that something gonna happen soon, but was 95% sure it was gonna be an intervention or at worst some spike, not a surprise removal of floor!
It's funny, look at the daily volatility (rounded down nearest pip).

12-week 8-week 6-week 4-week 1-week
EURUSD 101 101 99 89 125
EURCHF 91 119 147 196 692

Interesting... :nerd:
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #14,128
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:20pm Jan 17, 2015 12:20pm
Quoting Harris27
{quote} I give a Sxht about what draghi, yellen, bullard and others say, never traded according to what they say but what my chart says. The Swiss NB situation is totally different than that, its policy was very clear, defending the 1.20 with utmost determination and unlimited bullSxxt, the worst was that they assured it till the last minute, betrayal in no time!!!
Lol OK then
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #14,129
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:26pm Jan 17, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I could be that I am jaded from living in the States, but ANY talking head on TV must be taken with a grain of salt. The SNB said that would defend the peg. What else were they supposed to say? They very well would not say they are going to drop that thing like the turd sandwich that it was, now would they??? I will say again, the charts did warn that something was seriously wrong. I had stops in place to get me in on last Thursday, but I have done moves like that in real time. Your first clue will be that the spreads will get wide. Price...
I understand your point of view from your location state. The charts warned, true, but expected it to be in our favor not against, maybe from greed eyes were blind and mind closed to other options, true.

Anyway, what happened happened, we'll live, learn and continue making money whatever the obstacles are.
  • #14,130
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:32pm Jan 17, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting Harris27
{quote} I understand your point of view from your location state. The charts warned, true, but expected it to be in our favor not against, maybe from greed eyes were blind and mind closed to other options, true. Anyway, what happened happened, we'll live, learn and continue making money whatever the obstacles are.
Well I'm glad you are still in the game Harris. This too, shall pass.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #14,131
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:47pm Jan 17, 2015 12:47pm
Quoting Harris27
{quote} I understand your point of view from your location state. The charts warned, true, but expected it to be in our favor not against, maybe from greed eyes were blind and mind closed to other options, true. Anyway, what happened happened, we'll live, learn and continue making money whatever the obstacles are.
I am wondering how you could expect it to be in your favor when the charts were screaming the other way? The Holy Grail in trading is Want What the Market Wants. Bias is going to cost you a lot of money.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #14,132
  • Jan 17, 2015 2:17pm Jan 17, 2015 2:17pm
I am wondering if anyone had the DOM up for this pair or any CHF pair for that matter during the drop.

Example:
I figure just seconds before/during the drop there must have been some sitting bid orders some 20-50 pips (1.1999 - 1.1950) below, and people who were long the EUR/CHF with stop losses anywhere within such range had their stops executed decently.

So therefore those who had their stops sitting further than 50 pips or so away got massive slippage.

accurate or not?
  • #14,133
  • Jan 17, 2015 3:42pm Jan 17, 2015 3:42pm
I had a decent balance in my account and being sensible was only risking 1% on a Eur/Chf trade if stop had been hit.My account did not go negative but I got screwed and lost 100% and was wiped out so that's what being sensible gets you.What I should have done is kept just enough to cover the minimum margin for this trade in my account then it would have gone negative and FXCM would have zeroed the account which would have meant I would only have lost 10% of what I have done. I think this is treating clients unfairly . Essentially those with excess money in the account had to cover there full loss will those that were over leveraged have been saved.

I realise anything can happen in the market and FXCM is an ECN not a market maker, stops can be slipped when there is no liquidity but when 99% of clients were short chf in such a risky trade I really think the risk management team at FXCM should have had the foresight to have hedged the position to protect both it's business and clients. As they failed to do this in my opinion they are not up to the job and I don't think I can trust them with my money going forward.
  • #14,134
  • Jan 17, 2015 3:46pm Jan 17, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting Market Maker
I had a decent balance in my account and being sensible was only risking 1% on a Eur/Chf trade if stop had been hit.My account did not go negative but I got screwed and lost 100% and was wiped out so that's what being sensible gets you.What I should have done is kept just enough to cover the minimum margin for this trade in my account then it would have gone negative and FXCM would have zeroed the account which would have meant I would only have lost 10% of what I have done. I think this is treating clients unfairly . Essentially those with excess...
Exactly what I'm thinking.

They should have raised the margins on CHF to lower the leverage available to their clients.

They have mailed today saying 'Don't worry, We have saved ourselves.'

No mention about what they are going to do about their clients negative equity.
  • #14,135
  • Jan 17, 2015 4:55pm Jan 17, 2015 4:55pm
Quoting leveraged
I am wondering if anyone had the DOM up for this pair or any CHF pair for that matter during the drop. Example: I figure just seconds before/during the drop there must have been some sitting bid orders some 20-50 pips (1.1999 - 1.1950) below, and people who were long the EUR/CHF with stop losses anywhere within such range had their stops executed decently. So therefore those who had their stops sitting further than 50 pips or so away got massive slippage. accurate or not?
This is a good article that touches on the salient points... http://www.cnbc.com/id/102346870 ...maybe answer some of your question. Anway you cut it ...chf at these levels may doom their global exports and at the same time reap havoc in their domestic economy. A 1000 points of retracement is not out of the question...that is my trade this week.

best to all in 2015
I may not be right...BUT, I am never wrong
  • #14,136
  • Jan 17, 2015 6:21pm Jan 17, 2015 6:21pm
EURCHF seems correlate to USDCHF as EURUSD to USDCHF before

EURUSD is no more correlate to USDCHF !!

Not easy now to use correlation as an edge on EURUSD !!
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  • #14,137
  • Jan 17, 2015 8:29pm Jan 17, 2015 8:29pm
Did anyone with a live account place their stop loss at or very very close to 1.2000? Just wondering what the slippage was with a stop that close.
  • #14,138
  • Jan 17, 2015 8:42pm Jan 17, 2015 8:42pm
Quoting Stinky
Did anyone with a live account place their stop loss at or very very close to 1.2000? Just wondering what the slippage was with a stop that close.
I had a sell stop order at 12003 and had one point slippage so was set at 12002.
If I had a 4 point slippage I would of been in serious trouble as I was short 5 lots, it freaks me out just thinking about it
  • #14,139
  • Jan 17, 2015 8:49pm Jan 17, 2015 8:49pm
Hi All,

Are there any Singapore retail traders here that are facing issues with Saxo regarding either the CHF repricing quotes or negative balances?

Some of us are looking to come together potentially to explore options and was wondering if others like to join us for a combined approach.

If so, please email us at [email protected]
  • #14,140
  • Edited 9:46pm Jan 17, 2015 9:14pm | Edited 9:46pm
Quoting Harris27
Good News: We would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your patience following on from Thursday’s CHF market events, and to highlight our commitments to our clients. - We honour our promises, negative balance protection continues to be enforced on all retail trading accounts. Our team has been working to manually correct any negative balances that remain on your trading platforms. This process should now be complete. - Your funds remain protected and completely segregated from the capital FxPro uses to meet its collateral requirements....


Guys,

I strongly recommend all traders to pull your funds out of FXCM even after the 300million rescue.

FXCM’s business is 100% concentrated in the forex business unlike other bigger diversified groups such as CitiFx and E*Trade. This means with the number of FX client’s flight out expected in the comings weeks and months out of concerns over whether and how long FXCM will be able to remain operational even in spite of the loan, which is not intended for operational costs, but rather to replenish negative equity balances and to restore it to SEC regulatory compliance. FXCM’S business will shrink considerably in the foreseeable future. Therefore for them to pay back 300 million in two years’ time becomes impossible. And guess who will be the next rescuer?

FXCM is just buying time, not solving their problem.
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