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EUR/CHF

  • #14,081
  • Jan 17, 2015 9:57am Jan 17, 2015 9:57am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} You kidding? The SNB finally has credibility. How is the SNB's fault traders are lazy? The credibility was lost when the peg was created in the first was place. Traders have ate out of central bankers' hands for six years and this bullshit thing called forward guidance. Surprise! This is what forex should be.
Credibility for u means not standing for ur word!?! OK, u might say what CB give a shxt of retail traders or people in general, even big companies got out of business.

Why assure the cap few days from swiss mafia bank tragedy?

Why come out everyday begging swiss people to vote against the Gold Referendum, saying they can't defend the peg if it passes?

Swiss National Bank is a Big Shame for the whole industry.
  • #14,082
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:09am Jan 17, 2015 10:09am
Quoting Harris27
{quote} Credibility for u means not standing for ur word!?! OK, u might say what CB give a shxt of retail traders or people in general, even big companies got out of business. Why assure the cap few days from swiss mafia bank tragedy? Why come out everyday begging swiss people to vote against the Gold Referendum, saying they can't defend the peg if it passes? Swiss National Bank is a Big Shame for the whole industry.
I think the problem is traders have become lazy. Why would you assume anything is a sure thing. Profits aren't a sure thing, and the EURCHF is not a damn sure thing.

The sad thing is, if people would pull their heads out of their arses, they would have seen this coming. Not necessarily this week, or next or whatever. The SNB balance sheet was nearly 90% of the Swiss GDP. They spend billions a day buying euros and debasing the franc - which at one point in history was sound money. Jim Grant warned his readers this day was coming back in September.

They lost credibility when they wanted to manipulate their currency. The most credible thing they have done was allow the franc to return to free markets for the first time in years.

So what, they didn't send out memos. It's not the SNB's job to look our for P/L's. They couldn't afford the peg, and it was dropped.

And you want to look towards the SNB for a lack of credibility? How many months, excuse me years, has Draghi promised QE or "whatever it takes?" Europe still lays in the economical wasteland, but as long as the euro keeps going down and your P/L is green nobody cares.

Or the Fed stringing rate hikes along like a can on a string, and traders just gobble that crap up.

People keep bitxhin' about the CHF... Um, maybe you guys should be worried about the JPY
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #14,083
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:10am Jan 17, 2015 10:10am
Just a theory...bear with me. Carry trades? In 1999/2000 The Yen had negative rates and was the currency of choice for the carry trade. In 2008/09 the dollar was the carry trade currency having the lowest rates among the G-4/7 currency's. Both currency's were Borrowed and sold driving them into oblivion. NOW we have the Chf at negative rates. The markets will do what the SNB could not do. The Chf will be borrowed and SOLD off to implement the NEW carry trade. It may take a month or so but I think we will see some consolidation and then the breakout. Those who survived this surprise move should stay vigilant and recover when the time is right. Things happen for a reason, look for the reason and make your plans.

best wishes for 2015
I may not be right...BUT, I am never wrong
  • #14,084
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:26am Jan 17, 2015 10:26am
Quoting Spartanholds
Just a theory...bear with me. Carry trades? In 1999/2000 The Yen had negative rates and was the currency of choice for the carry trade. In 2008/09 the dollar was the carry trade currency having the lowest rates among the G-4/7 currency's. Both currency's were Borrowed and sold driving them into oblivion. NOW we have the Chf at negative rates. The markets will do what the SNB could not do. The Chf will be borrowed and SOLD off to implement the NEW carry trade. It may take a month or so but I think we will see some consolidation and then the breakout....
Agree on this one and can expect dead cat bounce.
  • #14,085
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:29am Jan 17, 2015 10:29am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} I think the problem is traders have become lazy. Why would you assume anything is a sure thing. Profits aren't a sure thing, and the EURCHF is not a damn sure thing. The sad thing is, if people would pull their heads out of their arses, they would have seen this coming. Not necessarily this week, or next or whatever. The SNB balance sheet was nearly 90% of the Swiss GDP. They spend billions a day buying euros and debasing the franc - which at one point in history was sound money. Jim Grant warned his readers this day was coming back in September....
We all knew the day will come for cap removal, but no predictor could had known it to be at that day, the timing was totally wrong!
Their action was opposite to what they always said(few days ago even by Danthine).

Can you imagine how much the timing of peg removal was important. Swiss NB must had intervened with some spikes from time to time instead of locking the pair 1.2008-1.2010!! They could had saved billions by this and relief pressure on cap.

Many buyers had take profit set to grab those quick spikes. Swiss NB didn't even try to do something different like cut rate to -0.75% only without the stupid removal of cap decision. I will never understand why they did it both one time!! other than Swiss pussycat bank members were in big panic, thought both will cancel each other in market affection to the decision. They are Real Stupid.
  • #14,086
  • Edited 2:20pm Jan 17, 2015 10:30am | Edited 2:20pm
It's stunning to me that so many (big) market participants accepted SNB commitment talk at face value.


The entire world was short Swiss francs. Risk in EURCHF was skewed to the downside. I've been saying this repeatedly.

Also, those who bothered studying the most recent balance sheet and sight deposit figures while also being able to think objectively would not have been short CHF.
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #14,087
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:32am Jan 17, 2015 10:32am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Agree on this one and can expect dead cat bounce.
imo not so quick
but surely high volatility
  • #14,088
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:34am Jan 17, 2015 10:34am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} imo not so quick but surely high volatility
Not anytime soon probably after this coming Jan 22

One single ccy appreciate +40% in seconds .................
  • #14,089
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:34am Jan 17, 2015 10:34am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...-went-bad.html

This article explains very well the situation of most acc in the red, regulators are goin to put all these firms under the microscope and make them credit the negative balances beyond margin call. And most surely make the accountable for the margin required.
  • #14,090
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:35am Jan 17, 2015 10:35am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Not anytime soon probably after this coming Jan 22 One single ccy appreciate +40% in seconds .................
years

japs, plenty on the horizon. looking for holidays actually
  • #14,091
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:41am Jan 17, 2015 10:41am
Quoting Harris27
{quote} We all knew the day will come for cap removal, but no predictor could had known it to be at that day, the timing was totally wrong! Their action was opposite to what they always said(few days ago even by Danthine). Can you imagine how much the timing of peg removal was important. Swiss NB must had intervened with some spikes from time to time instead of locking the pair 1.2008-1.2010!! They could had saved billions by this and relief pressure on cap. Many buyers had take profit set to grab those quick spikes. Swiss NB didn't even try to...
Sure, maybe it would have lessened volatility. The funny thing is, you said every one knew that day were to come. However, it was bad timing because the market was caught of guard.

The problem is not the SNB, but the complacency of markets. We feel like it's central bankers' duty to give everyone warning. When I woke up and read the news, I wasn't surprised, just wondered what took so long.

The rate was cut as a feeble attempt to prevent piling into the franc.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #14,092
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:44am Jan 17, 2015 10:44am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} And you want to look towards the SNB for a lack of credibility? How many months, excuse me years, has Draghi promised QE or "whatever it takes?" Europe still lays in the economical wasteland, but as long as the euro keeps going down and your P/L is green nobody cares. Or the Fed stringing rate hikes along like a can on a string, and traders just gobble that crap up. People keep bitxhin' about the CHF... Um, maybe you guys should be worried about the JPY
Not only retail traders, most people including brokers were not prepared for this surprise, swiss big companies are in deep financial problems, crying for help.

We do not talk about "ifs", but facts. The cap was in place, Swiss NB assured it until few days from the disaster. Draghi didn't promise something that do not exist. Swiss NB did not promise to set a cap and failed to do it. If they hadn't set a cap from 3 years, we have no problem with them, we weren't talking here or this thread was dead long time ago!

The worst Swiss NB have done was overvaluing the already overvalued CHF currency, sending both usdchf and eurusd downward, correlation reversed!!!

Swiss National Bank hurting its own people before any others, buyers of eurchf on this thread lost nothing compared to everything "made in switzerland"!!

Swiss Mafia Bank cheated all people, Swiss national Bank lost its credibility forever.
  • #14,093
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:48am Jan 17, 2015 10:48am
Quoting Au.trader
{quote} You just made billion or even more congrats !!!
Big money, yes but only if you traded a put option
  • #14,094
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:48am Jan 17, 2015 10:48am
Quoting hornsant
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...-went-bad.html This article explains very well the situation of most acc in the red, regulators are goin to put all these firms under the microscope and make them credit the negative balances beyond margin call. And most surely make the accountable for the margin required.
Good news, This must be applied to all brokers who are spreading favor words on clients for returning balance to zero instead of applying stop out% and return money to their clients.
  • #14,095
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:49am Jan 17, 2015 10:49am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} finally someone gets it! I'm surprised FXCM is still around. I bet even European brokers lower their leverage to clients. Couldn't imagine looking at my account and owing $X,XXX
I wasn't too worried about FXCM. They are the big fish in the pond. Too big to fail. If you are not from the States that means some institutions will be allowed to live no matter how badly they fuck up.

For the guppies like us, we have to be aware of our leverage. I personally am glad this happened because novice and advanced beginners have not had a good old fashioned black swan. It takes one of those for the trader to rethink their fiscal policies on trades.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #14,096
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:50am Jan 17, 2015 10:50am
Quoting Harris27
{quote} Not only retail traders, most people including brokers were not prepared for this surprise, swiss big companies are in deep financial problems, crying for help. We do not talk about "ifs", but facts. The cap was in place, Swiss NB assured it until few days from the disaster. Draghi didn't promise something that do not exist. Swiss NB did not promise to set a cap and failed to do it. If they hadn't set a cap from 3 years, we have no problem with them, we weren't talking here or this thread was dead long time ago! The worst Swiss NB have...
why so angry man. swiss are fine. just fine
  • #14,097
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:52am Jan 17, 2015 10:52am
Quoting Harris27
{quote} Not only retail traders, most people including brokers were not prepared for this surprise, swiss big companies are in deep financial problems, crying for help. We do not talk about "ifs", but facts. The cap was in place, Swiss NB assured it until few days from the disaster. Draghi didn't promise something that do not exist. Swiss NB did not promise to set a cap and failed to do it. If they hadn't set a cap from 3 years, we have no problem with them, we weren't talking here or this thread was dead long time ago! The worst Swiss NB have done...
Right the facts. The fact is.. SNB dropped the fix, tough luck. Brokers lost because they want to offer 300:1 to clients.

Look, I don't care about central banking. Their all the same. My beef is people whining about it as if they owe some sort of warning. I just watched a clip of Edger at Oanda say yea, it was a surprise. Take it on the chin and time to move on.

If you thought central banking was credible, that's a personal problem
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #14,098
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:54am Jan 17, 2015 10:54am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Sure, maybe it would have lessened volatility. The funny thing is, you said every one knew that day were to come. However, it was bad timing because the market was caught of guard. The problem is not the SNB, but the complacency of markets. We feel like it's central bankers' duty to give everyone warning. When I woke up and read the news, I wasn't surprised, just wondered what took so long. The rate was cut as a feeble attempt to prevent piling into the franc.
Dude, understand that our problem with the swiss mafia bank is not removing the peg off guard but why assure it many times...repeating...then all the sudden remove it. This is a disgrace.

I'm a man of my word, people who do what Swiss NB had done loss credibility and are X for me.

"The rate was cut as a feeble attempt to prevent piling into the franc"

In what did this matter? As if didn't exist, eurchf reached 0.83-0.85 for some brokers same day and 0.96 for all a day later.

Do you even doubt that both decisions were very amateur?!
  • #14,099
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:55am Jan 17, 2015 10:55am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I wasn't too worried about FXCM. They are the big fish in the pond. Too big to fail. If you are not from the States that means some institutions will be allowed to live no matter how badly they fuck up. For the guppies like us, we have to be aware of our leverage. I personally am glad this happened because novice and advanced beginners have not had a good old fashioned black swan. It takes one of those for the trader to rethink their fiscal policies on trades.
Lol I know, they got bailed out. Like I told someone else, I wasn't surprised the fix was dropped. Just surprised it took so long.

Complacency breeds indolence. Traders thought everything was a sure thing. The 1.20 floor would always stand and all I'd have to do is go long. Psssh.

This is what forex used to be.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #14,100
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:58am Jan 17, 2015 10:58am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Not necessarily, not in an event like this. Who knows where they're cut on a 3,500 pip drop. I have personally see traders' margin go into the negative under "normal" circumstances.
I hope you were able to correct them. Unless a trader gets into a car wreck or gets seriously ill and winds up in a coma, they should never face a margin call on their total account on a single trade. That's just stupid. Having said that, I was stupid too once upon a time.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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