EURUSD | Page 47554 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #951,061
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:01am Jan 16, 2015 1:01am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} dude.... different economy, different industrial composition. Tertiary heavy industry like banking, finance, it, actually benefits from higher exchange rates. Manufacturing heavy industry like, metal production, oil exportations, car manufacturing etc etc.... those benefits from lower exchange rates so they can export shit... Swiss doesnt need to export shit... wtf are they exporting?? chocolates and watches??/ come on....

Like the swiss Norway is a country that import more than they eksport so in that way it is the same situation.
Outside oil and oil industri we hardly have any eksport .It is the balanse between the eksport and the import that matters

The swiss are in trouble with this if the currency stays like this. Look at figures like inflation etc.
Our currency have become so low that we are getting an imported inlation of 20%.
  • #951,062
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:02am Jan 16, 2015 1:02am
Quoting KGP
{quote} well to make a long story sort.... QE will more or less start (it may be seen as indirectly...or not...it doesnt matter) with the first ELA request approval...from the...ECB


I agree with this It is an reason why this is coming now I would no be lon euro at this moment
I have said it before that the strong US will get problems for US too soon WE already se some sign of this
  • #951,063
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:04am Jan 16, 2015 1:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its why i use stops.. its not the first time big moves happen... this was the mother of all moves... i haven't been concerned or even looking.. people bitch about u.s. brokers.. we had a good example of why a regulated insured one is better.. some possible places to look st...eu 1669.5/1746,, uj 117.08/118.18 on a larger tf (118.18) 118.31/32-120.81
Well the factory still seems busy, so on with the show, good luck Gator, happy new year at least the volatility is back, its been good so far.
  • #951,064
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:08am Jan 16, 2015 1:08am
Quoting kill56
{quote} i never chase the market, let it come to me hit and run is my way i do hit lows and highs and keep some for the road when we have a clear path
So thats a "yes" then, you elusive miracle worker person?
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #951,065
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:09am Jan 16, 2015 1:09am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} btw you wana know something?? if anythign the way i interpreted yesterday's event by the swiss national bank.... basically QE is coming.... and they know the market hasnt fully priced in ECB QE.... so they know if they still held the peg.... and the flurry of shit storm comes in EURO like greek election and ECB easing comes to play... they will suffer alot buying up useless Euros.... so yea from SNB's move yesterday, i can tell the EURO still has more weakness to come.

we both knew that the peg was not going to stand...in case they opted to defend it they would just waste time and resources and at the end they wouldnt have the "hope" of anything near to 1.2... now they can hope for parity and even further.... (i am not talking now)

the move and strategy was a well planned and executed one...never mind the moaning around it

for your information greek elections is going to be a month and a half process.... (there is 99% of AT LEAST a second round)

as you might recall i am not 100% super mario will start the action on 22jan...he might delay it a little bit...but even if he farts talking markets will take him (once again) seriously... as there was too much discussion lately that supermario was "all talks and only"

and given the "perfect for all" ECJ preliminary "call"... he now has the "perfect excuse" in order to start the QE ...if you read the ECJ text its clear that a very important reason beyond ECBs current control is needed for QE to take place...

so what SNB did was a win for SNB win for supermario/ECB and win for german (and not only) politicians who wanted something that will satisfy their voters (both in terms of ECJ and the "excuse" via SNBs action)
  • #951,066
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:11am Jan 16, 2015 1:11am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} dude.... different economy, different industrial composition. Tertiary heavy industry like banking, finance, it, actually benefits from higher exchange rates. Manufacturing heavy industry like, metal production, oil exportations, car manufacturing etc etc.... those benefits from lower exchange rates so they can export shit... Swiss doesnt need to export shit... wtf are they exporting?? chocolates and watches??/ come on....
I believe that they need relatively stable franc on traded weighted basis. If you are so certain they do benefit from strong franc, how would u justify their committment to maintaining floor with euro for the past 4 years?

In 2013, exports accounted for Europe - 58%, Asia - nearly 22%;
  • #951,067
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:18am Jan 16, 2015 1:18am
Yesterday was an amazingly clever and horribly disgusting way to disorient traders while forcing them to setups without any proper analysis....
First down did a SL + Pending Order hunt, while the second erased everybody in the first and set up a trap to the downside.
Usually market makes new high at this time to clear again. (bears would like to sell with good R:R, so closer to the high the more short will be opened with tight SL)
Panic in the markets, and everybody talks about crashing EUR...(In May it was the opposite)
f(z)=z2+c
  • #951,068
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:19am Jan 16, 2015 1:19am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Like the swiss Norway is a country that import more than they eksport so in that way it is the same situation. Outside oil and oil industri we hardly have any eksport .It is the balanse between the eksport and the import that matters The swiss are in trouble with this if the currency stays like this. Look at figures like inflation etc. Our currency have become so low that we are getting an imported inlation of 20%.
but you do know oil is your only export right that the world wants right?
rolex is a luxury.... the world doesnt need it.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #951,069
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:23am Jan 16, 2015 1:23am
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} I believe that they need relatively stable franc on traded weighted basis. If you are so certain they do benefit from strong franc, how would u justify their committment to maintaining floor with euro for the past 4 years? In 2013, exports accounted for Europe - 58%, Asia - nearly 22%;
idiocy is the only explanation why the pegged it to the Euro, they would've done a better job pegging to the USD....
but they're in the middle of europe so the only thing they could think of pegging to at first is the euro.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #951,070
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:23am Jan 16, 2015 1:23am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} but you do know oil is your only export right that the world wants right? rolex is a luxury.... the world doesnt need it.
rolex is not luxury we only think it is luxury due to the high prices of the strong CHF
I think that mr Jordan has panic now He didnt expect this.

They pegged it to the euro because 70% of their ekport market is in the eurosone
  • #951,071
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:33am Jan 16, 2015 1:33am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} rolex is not luxury we only think it is luxury due to the high prices of the strong CHF I think that mr Jordan has panic now He didnt expect this. They pegged it to the euro because 70% of their ekport market is in the eurosone
correct. something tells me that buyer in Shagnai no matter how rich would think twice now before buying rolex which suddenly increased by 15%
  • #951,072
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:45am Jan 16, 2015 1:45am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} but you do know oil is your only export right that the world wants right? rolex is a luxury.... the world doesnt need it.
so you are telling us how you knew that the chf cap will fall sooner or later. and still, you had a long usdchf position from 10th dec till 18th dec?

it is in your trade explorer, anyone can see it
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
  • #951,073
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:48am Jan 16, 2015 1:48am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Yes, and from what I see they're quite creative when it comes to preventing their customers from changing the bank.
Hatch mate,

eonia has nothing to do with capital requirements.
so could be manipulated, yes

In the last period we have occurence as you predicted. But.. We have a long period of "spikes" whereas no pattern is seen.
But if the pattern at the end of the month continues you could be on to something but this would be a hard case.
ECB is doing calculations

You were right. We could see in few years again some law suits concerning this issue, especially if this continues.

I guess you already searched for this.

http://www.emmi-benchmarks.eu/euribo...-org/faqs.html

Who bshould I contact in case I have other questions on Euribor or Eonia?
Please e-mail your questions to the EMMI Team .
  • #951,074
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:56am Jan 16, 2015 1:56am
going short ... 50 pips tp ... 40 pips SL
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #951,075
  • Edited 2:36am Jan 16, 2015 2:05am | Edited 2:36am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} yes 2539 is the 261.8...didn't expected such a down move, its too fast... it's the euro fault, TP 1715 bad TP...1653-1660 is possible at first..
Quoting Malchi
going short ... 50 pips tp ... 40 pips SL
the 1647 is trying to block access to PP 1663...the 1623 is the short term support...1623 1647 must be another sandwitch price...1635 is the 23.6, your 1670-75 is 38.2.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: The sandwitch price.jpg Size: 220 KB
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #951,076
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:07am Jan 16, 2015 2:07am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Hatch mate, eonia has nothing to do with capital requirements. so could be manipulated, yes In the last period we have occurence as you predicted. But.. We have a long period of "spikes" whereas no pattern is seen. But if the pattern at the end of the month continues you could be on to something but this would be a hard case. ECB is doing calculations You were right. We could see in few years again some law suits concerning this issue, especially if this continues. I guess you already searched for this. http://www.emmi-benchmarks.eu/euribo...-org/faqs.html...
I took the historic data beginning on 2008-01-02, earlier data is not relevant for me. The spikes are getting more and more pronounced from 2012 onwards, and get significantly bigger when the EONIA went negative.

I do not intend to file or get involved in any class-action law-suit, I want to clarify this. The issue at hand is that the specific bank tries to milk a customer dry and intentionally forces him into bancruptcy, completely ignoring any written request.
The funny thing is, that US- and GB-banks did the same during the housing crisis. We know what became of many of those homeowners.

Thanks for sharing.
  • #951,077
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:12am Jan 16, 2015 2:12am
EU session looks slightly bullish to me...made a higher high, too...so what about 1667, then down to 1642 and then up to 1687 after the US news. Setting up pending short for the first move.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #951,078
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:16am Jan 16, 2015 2:16am
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} correct. something tells me that buyer in Shagnai no matter how rich would think twice now before buying rolex which suddenly increased by 15%
I wouldn't worry much about luxury brands like Rolex as the demand is pretty inelastic to price. What about Swatch? (was hammered yesterday) or the world’s largest food company (Nestle) or even more important the world’s biggest cement maker (Holcim) ....

I keep digesting the move yesterday. As expected it brought a long tail of losses with big banks and traders but the biggest toll has been with FX brokers. A dozen or so micro bucket shop officially busted and a couple of big ones (IG, FXCM, etc) suffered severe losses....and those are only the reported ones. I am pretty sure more will come (and will be out of business) in the next few weeks.

On the fundamental side. The cost of the band floor was unsustainable. My view is that its a mix between a preemptive move before ECB QE, and more importantly, to make interventions in the future less clear.

Now the SNB can intervene in the markets anytime they want without warning or without having to defend a specific level. Meaning, the threat of a CB stepping in out unexpectedly (buying/selling) of the blue is enough leverage to scare anybody trying to push the CHF too far from their target means. Plus the extreme negative rates is a big punishment for any hedge against the euro.

Only problem is that if its panic in Euro Zone (like in 2010/2012) in the future, the cost of pouring into CHF and loss a few point on interest wont be an issue when you are facing losing half if you leave it in Euros (e.g Greeks running for safety after exit, etc etc).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #951,079
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:23am Jan 16, 2015 2:23am
come on...the chick of swiss are hot..! lets go there
  • #951,080
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:31am Jan 16, 2015 2:31am
And Alpari UK is down...no trade can be opened. This has to be a joke...I just dumped the morons from FXopen for doing this kind of freezing bullshit all the time...and my first day with Alpari and they freeze for 5 minutes in the middle of the first London hour. Unbelievable...

EDIT: Back up after 5 minutes. Looks like I will keep Tallinex as my only broker...everyone else seems to be a dealink desk joke.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
557 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
Gecco8