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  • #950,901
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:39am Jan 15, 2015 10:39am
Quoting Magicmen
Hope to see 1539 in next 4H.
yes 2539 is the 261.8...didn't expected such a down move, its too fast... it's the euro fault, TP 1715 bad TP...1653-1660 is possible at first..
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #950,902
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:39am Jan 15, 2015 10:39am
Quoting pmmebids
{quote} its a month end, so there might be specific requirements required for reserves,etc thus pushing up the price (I think it is purely from a liquidity point of view)
yes, you might and guess you are rite
ill check more tom
  • #950,903
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:39am Jan 15, 2015 10:39am
what a day!! I know I will take this opportunity to compare brokers who managed the CHF situation best.

i know it is their business what was hedged and what was not, but I am curious to see how they handle the over leveraging and all the client complains.
  • #950,904
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:40am Jan 15, 2015 10:40am
Quoting Mr Hatch
It's not necessarily oanda themselves, but the banks they're connected with that decide the spread, or am I wrong?
That would be JPM. But 0anda is DD, so makes the charts. I like em though.

Regarding that Eonia, thats pretty strange. Perhaps they have tried to block some money flows on the last day of the year? Eonia is weighted average of all O/N trades took that day, so such a spike is not some small thing. Thats stuck liquidity flow for one day. But perhaps they just finished earlier, closed shop and went to celebrate New Year .

Quoting pmmebids
{quote} its a month end, so there might be specific requirements required for reserves,etc thus pushing up the price (I think it is purely from a liquidity point of view)
Ha, nice one. Hit the nail.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #950,905
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:41am Jan 15, 2015 10:41am
it was a great day to buy swiss stocks - so i added swiss re (74) nestle (64) and novartis (84) to my portfolio. Danke, Herr Dr. Jordan ​
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #950,906
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:44am Jan 15, 2015 10:44am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} That would be JPM. But 0anda is DD, so makes the charts. I like em though. Regarding that Eonia, thats pretty strange. Perhaps they have tried to block some money flows on the last day of the year? Eonia is weighted average of all O/N trades took that day, so such a spike is not some small thing. Thats stuck liquidity flow for one day. But perhaps they just finished earlier, closed shop and went to celebrate New Year . {quote} Ha, nice one.
Hm... thanks for the hint, I'm going to try and find way more historic data. Looks like I'm going to be cheated on big-time.
  • #950,907
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:48am Jan 15, 2015 10:48am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Hm... thanks for the hint, I'm going to try and find way more historic data. Looks like I'm going to be cheated on big-time.
Think pme nailed it. I know banks reserves at CB have to be there on average whole month. Point is in the average thing. They can choose when to deposit. So it is possible they have drained liquidity out of CBs during whole december and needed to meet requirements on the last day so yet again drained liquidity out of market to CB. I know this can happen, but I have thought this can cause just very minor changes. Maybe it would be the best to analyze monthly endings whether such big spikes happen more often.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #950,908
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:48am Jan 15, 2015 10:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the spread wasn't a problem months back.. i didnt see the move, i was sleeping. i didnt see the spread move. i woke up thinking it was a f/u hoping the broker didnt catch it..
It was unfuckng real in the morning. Both my platorms were off for trading CHF, they killed a few accounts on every single long stops for sure. On the short side the few shorts gambling on the break at these levels got spreaded out by the bucket shops (and any broker I would say) guarantee (+100 spread). You were very lucky indeed that you didn't get spread out.

Quoting 21vs7
ebs traded eurchf starting around .96. no market traded between. talking interbank market. lines were on hold for more than an hour. first live price at 1,03 something... notional 5mio spread 150. shrank to 30 later on..now "normal" 4. clients got their SLs averaging around 0.90-1.05.
uffff. We were talking in the morning about how many real money got burnt in the move. Not only in EC but in the other pegs and crosses. GS reportedly got burnt in the cross with SEK but I am guessing lots more got burnt. It will be interested to see how some hedge manage to balance such a move. The move will bring a long tale across major portfolios...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #950,909
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:50am Jan 15, 2015 10:50am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Think pme nailed it. I know banks reserves at CB have to be there on average whole month. Point is in the average thing. They can choose when to deposit. So it is possible they have drained liquidity out of CBs during whole december and needed to meet requirements on the last day so yet again drained liquidity out of market to CB. I know this can happen, but I have thought this can cause just very minor changes. Maybe it would be the best to analyze monthly endings whether such big spikes happens more often.
yes, pme has a point and you explain it more in depth. that is what i was thinking also
  • #950,910
  • Edited Jan 16, 2015 10:14am Jan 15, 2015 10:51am | Edited Jan 16, 2015 10:14am
Quoting ibram.forex
Hi Guys, Please i will need your help as i got unfair margin call from oanda at jan 16 at 2:07:26am australian time for Aud/chf on .7318 and i did check with other brokers and on that time the price never went that low. Please advice me what to do????
AUD/CHF daily low was 0.5634
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Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #950,911
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:51am Jan 15, 2015 10:51am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Think pme nailed it. I know banks reserves at CB have to be there on average whole month. Point is in the average thing. They can choose when to deposit. So it is possible they have drained liquidity out of CBs during whole december and needed to meet requirements on the last day so yet again drained liquidity out of market to CB. I know this can happen, but I have thought this can cause just very minor changes. Maybe it would be the best to analyze monthly endings whether such big spikes happens more often.
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.d...s.y=0&trans=QF

I hope, the filter I set, stays with the link.

The spike upwards happens at the end of every quarter. The banks here use the EONIA to decide on credits and mortgage-rates using the last EONIA-rate of the quarter to decide the height of mortgage-rates.
This puts any customer they're draining at a huge disadvantage.
  • #950,912
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:53am Jan 15, 2015 10:53am
GOLD
1281 is not a bad place to lock profits and try some shorts.
.786 Ret D1 whole swing + 1.618 Extension ABCD.
If price passes there then my long term bearish view will change to neutral.
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #950,913
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:53am Jan 15, 2015 10:53am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Long short crude?
was long earlier today but flat at present. Will not get back in until tomorrow. Low 40 is good long entry imo.
  • #950,914
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:53am Jan 15, 2015 10:53am
Quoting sisse
{quote} It was unfuckng real in the morning. Both my platorms were off for trading CHF, they killed a few accounts on every single long stops for sure. On the short side the few shorts gambling on the break at these levels got spreaded out by the bucket shops (and any broker I would say) guarantee (+100 spread). You were very lucky indeed that you didn't get spread out. {quote} uffff. We were talking in the morning about how many real money got burnt in the move. Not only in EC but in the other pegs and crosses. GS reportedly got burnt in the cross...
certainly the common theme across everywhere was that the target will hold no matter what. even if more negative rates are needed

no doubt this is a losing bonus/job/career time for those who didnt hedge out the eurchf thinking there is no need. people could have been sitting on that 1.20 for years.

absolutely nice to be on a sidelines but wow, I am sure no bids were found in those minutes...
  • #950,915
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:57am Jan 15, 2015 10:57am
Quoting Mr Hatch
The banks here use the EONIA to decide on credits and mortgage-rates.
Hahaha. Yes you are right, I havent thought the most easy explanation. To rob someone.

Edit: Sry I dont understand that chart . Need to think. Am actually not very good in statistics, am using basic math.

1 more edit: Connecting dots. Banks use hole in CBs reserve system beeing based on average to rob clients.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #950,916
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:57am Jan 15, 2015 10:57am
Quoting sisse
{quote} uffff. We were talking in the morning about how many real money got burnt in the move. Not only in EC but in the other pegs and crosses. GS reportedly got burnt in the cross with SEK but I am guessing lots more got burnt. It will be interested to see how some hedge manage to balance such a move. The move will bring a long tale across major portfolios... sisse
yes, it was mayhem..even in three hours clients havent got any idea where the market maker will land their SL

..evidently we got a spike in gold and oil. all because of hedging purposes of the portfolio as you said. dead bounce.
instant hedge on this market to cover the loses on the CHF market.
  • #950,917
  • Jan 15, 2015 11:01am Jan 15, 2015 11:01am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Hahaha. Yes you are right, I havent thought the most easy explanation. To rob someone.
not necessarily.
depends on the credit line /attribute of the contract. euribor3m the most usual???...
01-14-20150.069%
01-13-20150.071%
01-12-20150.071%
01-09-20150.070%
01-08-20150.070%
01-07-20150.070%
01-06-20150.073%
01-05-20150.075%
01-02-20150.076%
12-31-20140.078%

Eonia is definately spiked cus of the averaging reserve requirements
  • #950,918
  • Jan 15, 2015 11:02am Jan 15, 2015 11:02am
Wow two great counter trend set-ups on the EU and GU

Will post Map and results. Took the GU after the EU broke, but the EU had the better set-up. Was not around when EU triggered so took the GU

5 wins today! No losses

  • #950,919
  • Jan 15, 2015 11:02am Jan 15, 2015 11:02am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Hahaha. Yes you are right, I havent thought the most easy explanation. To rob someone. Edit: Sry I dont understand that chart . Need to think. Am actually not very good in statistics, am using basic math.
Same here.
  • #950,920
  • Jan 15, 2015 11:03am Jan 15, 2015 11:03am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I was S/O -52 spread {image}
well the broker filled you in, but in reality the market was not there. when the broker takes the risk from you it is up to them to put it in the market or go against you.

i tracked the move down on the terminal , but no way any bank would have filled a decent size order at that time.
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