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EUR/CHF

  • #13,801
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:46am Jan 15, 2015 9:46am
Quoting Razor_trader
Last comment on the matter, at least for now anyway as it is 1.00 in the morning and I have had my fun. IF people cannot see it I will try and break it down because so many think that the SNB bailed. What happens to a high tensile spring as you enforce more load on it? What happens when the load is unleashed unexpectedly? What happens to a gas cylinder when it reaches its maximum and you just add that little bit extra? The SNB has promised for years to hold the peg. It has printed Billions, STOLEN purchasing power of the Franc so that the Swiss...
it is not the point that SNB had to hold forever this peg, it is impossible,
but not to say 2 days before that it will last and that is main monetary instrument and then drop it like it is not important thing
this is pure scam,
i wonder how long will mr. jordan last?
  • #13,802
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:47am Jan 15, 2015 9:47am
I quite liked this carnage, it was good for the wallet. Most of the time I'm on the wrong side.
Ya think Soros took a hit?
Tipster Trendlines - Trade from the chart
  • #13,803
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:48am Jan 15, 2015 9:48am
Quoting Pollux
{quote} What did you expect them to do? What other way to abandon the cap do you see? The moment they announced their intention to remove the peg every bank, every hedge fund, every retail trader would have shorted like crazy. All of them would put an immense pressure on CB which would have had to absorb losses. They owe nothing to anybody.
Not exactly, they could increase the negative rate to lets say -5%, wait and then abandon the cap, It was really stupid what they did, and it caused a lot of damage not only to traders...
  • #13,804
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:51am Jan 15, 2015 9:51am
FXCM stock down for the day more than 7% now. But it had lost even more in previous days (quarter release). Clearly they cannot depend from recovering negative balances in 100 foreign countries. We will know in the next days.
  • #13,805
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:52am Jan 15, 2015 9:52am
Quoting Bilstein
{quote} That's an extremely valid point, lol.
I agree. And trading without at least an emergency stop is a fools game (even if it doesn't get filled at your number)
Tipster Trendlines - Trade from the chart
  • #13,806
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:54am Jan 15, 2015 9:54am
Alpari have also closed down eurchf, it has been several hours and nothing, can't exit my short.

alpari is supposed to be ECN, so why the fuk haven't they just hedged in the interbank market
  • #13,807
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:54am Jan 15, 2015 9:54am
Quoting zoran22
{quote} it is not the point that SNB had to hold forever this peg, it is impossible, but not to say 2 days before that it will last and that is main monetary instrument and then drop it like it is not important thing this is pure scam, i wonder how long will mr. jordan last?
I wouldn't be surprised if "charlie hebdo" happens in SNB headquarter.
  • #13,808
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:57am Jan 15, 2015 9:57am
Quoting Harris27
Childish uneducated comment^^^
Nice placement of the comment, perhaps next time clicking the Quote option might protect you from calling a post about a person in negative territory a 'Childish Uneducated Comment'

Quoting Harris27
"STOLEN purchasing power of the Franc so that the Swiss citizen lose out"

Hey do you know that 75% of those same citizens voted for the Swiss NB against the Gold referendum???
In all the polls leading up to the referendum the numbers were closer to 50/50 yet on the day there is a massive slide to the No side besides you're a US citizen, do you really think your votes count when there is a bigger agenda on the table.... Who are you to question the outcome of a vote? Do you really think you live in a fair and democratic society that is designed to benefit the citizens as a whole. Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, US, Australia. They're all the same. You're vote is insignificant just like mine and hence why I do not bother wasting my time. The SNB never wanted the gold, it has been selling it for years to allow them to print without the major consequences. Just look at the reserves before and after and then ask yourself why the question was even on the table.

Oh that's right, I am uneducated so ill just derper derper derper move on with the sheep and follow what the wolf says.

Quoting Harris27
"IF the SNB managed to intervene, they would have just delayed the inevitiable. It would have crashed at some point" We are smart enough to know that. Read what I said before, withdrawing profits......etc
Why do you feel the need to use the word "we" like you speak for everyone....

Perhaps you should read the comments made by others who have NEGATIVE balances, who have lost everything before you include "We".

You're still jumping up and down not accepting the facts and while I am at it, perhaps its you that should read more and take note that that last post WASN'T addressed to you but the others reading here. I have done some research, raised to pretty valid posts and at times addressed comments to YOU, but I certainly have answered for WE like I own the thread.

Ill move along now as I was going to head to bed a little while ago but find myself replying to meaningless, insignificant posts from someone who thinks they speak for everyone.

Night all and hope those who have lost can get back on their feet.
  • #13,809
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:58am Jan 15, 2015 9:58am
Quoting dd303
{quote} Not exactly, they could increase the negative rate to lets say -5%, wait and then abandon the cap, It was really stupid what they did, and it caused a lot of damage not only to traders...
Uhm... not really because that would have been a clear signal for all those smart guys from the hedge funds that their determination to defend the peg came to an end. They couldn't drop the cap when ECB announced QE because then the magnitude of effect would have been double: CHF getting stronger + EUR getting weaker. All in all QE from ECB meant peg fail because they wouldn't be able to keep up printing money at the same rate as ECB.
  • #13,810
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:03am Jan 15, 2015 10:03am
Quoting Pollux
{quote} Uhm... not really because that would have been a clear signal for all those smart guys from the hedge funds that their determination to defend the peg came to an end...
That would be strong signal that they are determined to defend the cap, as they said they are ready to use additional measures immediately.
  • #13,811
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:12am Jan 15, 2015 10:12am
Quoting dd303
{quote} That would be strong signal that they are determined to defend the cap, as they said they are ready to use additional measures immediately.
In this case wouldn't we all have the same conversation and frustrations the next week blaming the SNB that a week earlier they sent a strong signal they are ready to defend the cap and a week later they drop the bomb in the market in a moment that couldn't be worse for EURCHF: ECB QE?

As I've said: the decision to trade CHF pairs knowing the market conditions must come with the acceptance of risks. SNB owes nothing to anybody and I am sure that people like George Soros have shorted this pair since the moment of cap announcement. They all knew it's going to end one day and that the drop is going to be huge.
  • #13,812
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:13am Jan 15, 2015 10:13am
Quoting Paz
{quote} SNB has said goodbye to reliability for the next 50 years and cannot assure about anything anymore. Last Monday the VP was still repeating the bullshit about defending 1.20. Let's remember, on a previous occasion the wife of SNB presidend traded the night before the floor was introduced, this time we don't know who had insider information, but be reassured, someone had.
Yes indeed, someone did, and you can see it on this chart. The big red is the hourly bar when trading was stopped, so it is actually only 40 minutes, so somebody knew something for sure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #13,813
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:14am Jan 15, 2015 10:14am
Quoting zoran22
{quote} it is not the point that SNB had to hold forever this peg, it is impossible, but not to say 2 days before that it will last and that is main monetary instrument and then drop it like it is not important thing this is pure scam, i wonder how long will mr. jordan last?
I might aswell not go to bed.

Everything was rosy in the US on the Friday before the emergency bailout meetings over the weekends. When the market opened to the news that Lehman collapsed the world went 'What the Fuck'. Everything is rosy on the outside until its not. The banks are not going to leak it until they have too, lets be serious on that. Hundreds of innocent people lost their jobs, losts their houses, lost their investments, their retirements need I go on further. Those in the trading world who have simply gambled on the prospects that something would happen either lost or gained depending on whether they are short or long. Shit happens all the time that is outside of the controls of mere men. Why not blame the European zone for not being a strong enough country? Blame Draghi who has been hinting about wanting Quantitative Easing and putting downward pressure on the Swiss.

No, what could have been protected is all those people who thought that the party was going to go on longer, that the champagne was going to continue to flow. They needed to wake up and have a look at the market. For Christ sake, it has been heading down rapidly for the past 18 odd months. The interventions have spiked and come back to the original point quicker and had no overall effect.

WHAT THE HELL DID PEOPLE EXPECT!

The SNB does not give a shit about the traders looking to make money off their peg. Lets get that straight. They don't give a toss about the people on Forex Factory, TTW, Zulu, Baby Pips etc etc etc. They made a decision that they could not maintain the peg and YES that is different from 2 days ago but it happened.

I can't believe I am still here at 2.00 in the morning. I am sure there are millions of people out there who have said 1 thing 1 day and reneged on it the next, or the day after.
  • #13,814
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:14am Jan 15, 2015 10:14am
Calm down Razor, yes you were right good job on the trade don't need to rub it in.

Normally traders complain about brokers overseas taking their money with some scammy adjustment and not been able to do anything about it. In this instance at least I'm thankful the roles are reversed and its unlikely they'll be able to recover that obscene amount of money from me.

Fck now I'm worried about my healthy accounts with other brokers and whether they're solvent.
  • #13,815
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:19am Jan 15, 2015 10:19am
Quoting Iro
Calm down Razor, yes you were right good job on the trade don't need to rub it in. Normally traders complain about brokers overseas taking their money with some scammy adjustment and not been able to do anything about it. In this instance at least I'm thankful the roles are reversed and its unlikely they'll be able to recover that obscene amount of money from me. Fck now I'm worried about my healthy accounts with other brokers and whether they're solvent.
The problem is that the money you owe them, they owe to somebody else plus some more. FXCM now loosing 9.5% and I'm afraid this can become a landslide.
  • #13,816
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:20am Jan 15, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Pip Anon
Christ people, it's called slippage. How do brokers stop an instantaneous 1,000 pip collapse? The facade couldn't last forever. Nevertheless the crazy leverage most people run on here does no help. Means you're vastly under-capitalized.
Exactly. Stops are not what killed them. Leverage was.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #13,817
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:24am Jan 15, 2015 10:24am
Quoting Iro
Calm down Razor, yes you were right good job on the trade don't need to rub it in.
On this note it appears I have now taken the argument to far and am pushing my beliefs, not something I want or intended.

Apologies to those offended, solid debate to those who have been part of it and hopefully to those who have been effected that you can piece things together.

I'm off to bed

Thank you Iro, sometimes we all need our heads pulled in, me included
  • #13,818
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:25am Jan 15, 2015 10:25am
Quoting Pollux
{quote} In this case wouldn't we all have the same conversation and frustrations the next week blaming the SNB that a week earlier they sent a strong signal they are ready to defend the cap and a week later they drop the bomb in the market in a moment that couldn't be worse for EURCHF: ECB QE? As I've said: the decision to trade CHF pairs knowing the market conditions must come with the acceptance of risks. SNB owes nothing to anybody and I am sure that people like Goerge Soros have shorted this pair since the moment of cap announcement. They all...
I did not get burned by the CHF but I like to ask "What would the Fed have done if they were in the SNB position"? Here's a few suggestions:
a) At the last scheduled rate announcement which was on December 11, they could have given hints of the floor ending to mitigate knee jerk reactions. Also, they would have cut the rates on December 11 during the scheduled rate announcement and not waited for one week to suddenly cut rates on December 18.
b) They would not have cut rates twice in a row without waiting to see the effect of the first rate cut which was set to start on Jan 21.
c) Even if they were cutting rates again, everyone and their dog knew a massive CHF appreciation was going to take place once the floor is removed.
d) During today's presser, Jordan said that the floor had to removed as a surprise. Clearly, someone has to explain the market to Jordan and his minions and tell them that this is not a Halloween haunted house where people are looking to be surprised. Surprises cause panic and I can imagine how many people lost it all today because Jordan and his gang felt like giving us a surprise.
e) They could have scheduled their announcements. Even a 24 hour heads up would suffice.
  • #13,819
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:29am Jan 15, 2015 10:29am
Quoting Bilstein
Sharing my experience with FXCM: I trade a basket, 30 pairs, no stop losses. The basket index was showing downward signs over the last few days so I weighted most of my positions to the short side. Aside from the handful of little losses and gains, I was long the NZD/CHF and took a 1,200 point loss (give or take). I made out on everything else Swiss-related like a bandit which more than offset the loss. I didn't predict anything or "see it coming" - my index was pointing down so I basically shorted 80% of the pairs I trade. When I first got to my...
Hi Bilstein;
You mention "basket index" in your post. What exactly is this; where can I get more info? I also trade a large basket (demo for now). Just wondering if this is something I can add to my tool box.
Thanks.
PS
You guys might want to check out my tongue in cheek profile. Many of you may need a little smile today.
Cluttered charts are visual diarrhea. Whats on your charts?
  • #13,820
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:35am Jan 15, 2015 10:35am
Quoting gameofpips
{quote} I did not get burned by the CHF but I like to ask "What would the Fed have done if they were in the SNB position"? Here's a few suggestions: a) At the last scheduled rate announcement which was on December 11, they could have given hints of the floor ending to mitigate knee jerk reactions. Also, they would have cut the rates on December 11 during the scheduled rate announcement and not waited for one week to suddenly cut rates on December 18. b) They would not have cut rates twice in a row without waiting to see the effect of the first rate...
Why? Everything you said means loses for SNB because any hint that they are going to drop the peg meant even more pressure on them. Why are they obliged in any way to take loses for us? They didn't recommend to anyone to short their pair currency and the cap purpose was not to encourage any trader to exploit their peg on their expenses. A peg my be announced and spare the bank of some loses, but the only way a peg can be dropped is by surprise. Any other way means huge loses for any CB which they are not bound to take so that us get rich on their back.
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