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EUR/CHF

  • #13,581
  • Edited 2:03pm Jan 5, 2015 1:48pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting zoran22
when jordan will hold speach tonight, anybody knows time?
Edited: Sorry Zoran22, I may have been a little hard with my answer due to some of your previous posts.
There was no official speach scheduled for today, but maybe you were speaking of the interview he gave to SRF. So, my apologies.


If you were indeed referring to that, here are somd links of what he said (the first is the one from the TV station, which is in German)
http://www.srf.ch/news/wirtschaft/sn...echischem-exit
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/latest...ly-central-SRF
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/0...ary-conditions
  • #13,582
  • Jan 5, 2015 6:02pm Jan 5, 2015 6:02pm
Quoting Paz
{quote} You mean 1.2026 perhaps. Or what are you talking about.
Looks like it was just some broker issue, my trades got reversed and the chart doesn't show a breach any more and a spike to 1.2045, guess I should have double checked with one of my other trading accounts.
  • #13,583
  • Jan 6, 2015 7:59am Jan 6, 2015 7:59am
Quoting iTrader
{quote} seriously who cares, just buy eurchf on every dip and make money as much as possible.
That's exactly the attitude that got many people stuck with punitive swap and/or forced to take a loss. It takes huge efforts by SNB to gain 100 pips and if one isn't quick to catch that (if and when it happens) all that remains is pennies. As others have said the pair can remain depressed to trade in a tight range for months.
  • #13,584
  • Jan 6, 2015 9:13am Jan 6, 2015 9:13am
Bear's attack ATM, it seemed like they couldn't break 1.2011 as it showed 0 spread there.
  • #13,585
  • Jan 6, 2015 11:23am Jan 6, 2015 11:23am
what do you think, will there be another negative rate announcement soon, like -1,5%, tomorrow morning?
  • #13,586
  • Jan 6, 2015 11:33am Jan 6, 2015 11:33am
Quoting zoran22
what do you think, will there be another negative rate announcement soon, like -1,5%, tomorrow morning?
Would be nice but no chance. Think there will be nothing before 22/01
  • #13,587
  • Jan 6, 2015 4:53pm Jan 6, 2015 4:53pm
I am wondering if anyone's swap conditions have improved following the neg rate annnouncement... My situation did not change yet.
  • #13,588
  • Jan 6, 2015 4:55pm Jan 6, 2015 4:55pm
Quoting memberx
{quote} Would be nice but no chance. Think there will be nothing before 22/01
So continuous pressure on the floor
  • #13,589
  • Jan 6, 2015 5:51pm Jan 6, 2015 5:51pm
If EURUSD continues falling, I can't imagine EURCHF 1.20 will hold for much longer.

and 1.20 break will be spectacular

(not just eurchf, there would be shockwaves across the markets, stocks crashing, perhaps further lows on oil, emerging markets flushing down the toilet etc. )

maybe they will avoid it this time again, but it seems to be getting harder and harder now. Brace for impact.

I'll keep taking more euroswissy shorts even if it goes to 1.30 before. I feel it just got to go down.
  • #13,590
  • Jan 6, 2015 6:54pm Jan 6, 2015 6:54pm
Quoting Devabala
I am wondering if anyone's swap conditions have improved following the neg rate annnouncement... My situation did not change yet.
My Broker Tallinex offers positive swaps on EC longs (+0.20). But this was also the case before the rate cut for CHF. My other brokers are Synergy FX (0.00 swap on EC longs) and Thinkforex with negative swaps of -1.60 on EC longs, which can become painful over time. Also these brokers did not change their swaps after rate cut.
  • #13,591
  • Jan 6, 2015 7:39pm Jan 6, 2015 7:39pm
Thank you, my broker - FxPro has around minus 1 CHF for a standard lot...
  • #13,592
  • Jan 6, 2015 9:17pm Jan 6, 2015 9:17pm
Quoting Orion602
If EURUSD continues falling, I can't imagine EURCHF 1.20 will hold for much longer. and 1.20 break will be spectacular (not just eurchf, there would be shockwaves across the markets, stocks crashing, perhaps further lows on oil, emerging markets flushing down the toilet etc. ) maybe they will avoid it this time again, but it seems to be getting harder and harder now. Brace for impact. I'll keep taking more euroswissy shorts even if it goes to 1.30 before. I feel it just got to go down.
It wont be broken at 1.2 if it wasnt during the EUR crisis it wont now for sure, but if the EC rate comes above 1.3 (not before 2018) i believe SNB will be unloading EUR and then drop the floor
  • #13,593
  • Jan 7, 2015 2:37am Jan 7, 2015 2:37am
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves end of December 495.1B, end of November 462.7B. Up by 32B in December.
So this was the result of the russian turmoil till now.

As I see, the higher the pressure, the higher chance for a more aggressive neg rates. Now it is -0.25%; in the beginning of the 80's it was max. -10%!!!!

In Summer 2012 the reserves were in June up by 66B, in July by 60B, then in August up by some 30B. And in September the price left the floor.
  • #13,594
  • Jan 7, 2015 2:38am Jan 7, 2015 2:38am
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0UL2E420150107
  • #13,595
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:00am Jan 7, 2015 3:00am
Quoting zoran22
{quote} It wont be broken at 1.2 if it wasnt during the EUR crisis it wont now for sure, but if the EC rate comes above 1.3 (not before 2018) i believe SNB will be unloading EUR and then drop the floor
Totally agree!!!
  • #13,596
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:34am Jan 7, 2015 3:34am
you guys are obviously long i wish you good luck then

imo if euro keeps falling like this, any SNB intervention is futile or waste of money and destined to fail. There was no situation like this in 2011 on eurusd when they intervened and made 1.20 floor. Maybe euro can find some temporary support here and shoot up, but i think its too fragile to hold for a long time.

time will tell, lets wait and see
  • #13,597
  • Jan 7, 2015 7:04am Jan 7, 2015 7:04am
Orion is correct. This is not 2012, during the euro crisis we had a strong euro, now it's weak, and some people want it even weaker. Switzerland can't be the one defending support for EURUSD.

Ultimately the needle is the Swiss trade balance. So far it's OK. As it moves one way or another, ECB will decide what to do next. In the meanwhile, smart Swiss buy cheap, in Europe, including real estate. The more they do, the more euro they will need, that helps a bit.
  • #13,598
  • Jan 7, 2015 11:33am Jan 7, 2015 11:33am
Quoting Paz
Orion is correct. This is not 2012, during the euro crisis we had a strong euro, now it's weak, and some people want it even weaker. Switzerland can't be the one defending support for EURUSD. Ultimately the needle is the Swiss trade balance. So far it's OK. As it moves one way or another, ECB will decide what to do next. In the meanwhile, smart Swiss buy cheap, in Europe, including real estate. The more they do, the more euro they will need, that helps a bit.
what do you mean strong EUR in 2012, it was on verge of collapse and defaulting of spain, portugal and italy, that kind of pressure was enormus, can not compare to RUSSIA default today, oil going down meaning deflation also supportive for SNB policy
EUR will go to parity with USD in 2-3 years as short term interests will change agressive to USD
you can also see todays report of SNB fx reserves, cca half of gain was because of appreciation of USD, this is SNB huge profit for first time in recent history in 2012 it was loss, now cantons who benefit from spliting this profit will be even more suportive for SNB policy,
  • #13,599
  • Jan 7, 2015 11:58am Jan 7, 2015 11:58am
if you al just look at your chart 2012 eurchf and 2012 eurusd you will see the eur down about 1300 pips and the snb not letting the floor 1 20 break

the same thing now is happing
  • #13,600
  • Jan 7, 2015 12:33pm Jan 7, 2015 12:33pm
chf still overvalued according to..... Snb, who better to judge its relative value. Now its clear that we ve seen a huge drop of chf value against usd. Usdchf coming from .85 to 1.02, yet snb has floored its currency against euro. So a part of the eurusd trate depends on eurchf, thats what we saw when snb announced neg rate, eurusd dropped 60pips as demand for chf dropped. What will happen next? Macros are pushing the floor, if they catch the stop of the retail, it will then fly towards 1.3000.
Snb can lower rates again, but will wait for jan 22 first and for demand for safe heaven to drop, meanwhile they will intervene to keep the floor intact.
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