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EUR/CHF

  • #13,561
  • Jan 3, 2015 10:43am Jan 3, 2015 10:43am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} (Negative LIBOR don't seem to do much)
Negative rates aren't even effective now.
As a 30 days notice period was needed, it will only start effectively on january 22.

Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} In 2012 they started with negative interest rates before they raised the the currency to the floor 1,2.
No, there wasn't negative rates in 2011 or 2012. They probably lowered them, but they stayed above 0.
Negatives rates, again starting january 22, hasn't been done in Switzerland since the 70s.

For confirmation:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...f-inflows.html
  • #13,562
  • Jan 3, 2015 12:47pm Jan 3, 2015 12:47pm
The same one from the history...

http://www.danskebank.com/en-uk/ci/P...cut_040914.pdf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DKK int.jpg Size: 247 KB
  • #13,563
  • Jan 3, 2015 12:55pm Jan 3, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting Fana
The same one from the history... http://www.danskebank.com/en-uk/ci/P...cut_040914.pdf {image}
What do you mean by this ????
That the DKK fall compared to the USD ? You can hardly argue that it is because of the negative rates as quite everything fall this exact same way against the USD during that period.
Commodities like precious metals or oil included.
  • #13,564
  • Jan 3, 2015 5:07pm Jan 3, 2015 5:07pm
Quoting Mevo
{quote} Honestly, my opinion is that it's only in your dreams. If it can reassure you, you're not the only one to dream. The SNB doesn't "need" anything or to do anything. YOU would like them to do something because you probably are long EUR/CHF. Don't confuse both. Let's be honest one second: raising the floor would put MORE pressure on it, not the opposite. To lower the pressure on the floor, they would need to LOWER it, not the opposite. Now, they can just let things like they are. They want E/C to not drop under 1.20 and things are going pretty...
I think raising the floor would not be such a big problem for SNB if they want to. Generaly SNB can print CHF and then buy EUR. Yes, by this step they increase their balance sheets but in total they create profit, because for printed CHF they get real euros and can buy other scurities etc... I am not saying that SNB going to raise the floor, but there is some chance...
  • #13,565
  • Edited 5:54pm Jan 3, 2015 5:43pm | Edited 5:54pm
In 2012 the rate from SNB was 0 but the banks were practising negative rates on CHF deposits. In 2012 Goldman Sach advised its most important customers in a secret report to run the CHF with a goal of the CHF to 0,85 agains the euro. This was one of the reasons that the swiss nationalbank pegged the CHF to 1,2 to euro.

This clearly shows that this is not a matter of safe heaven currency but for the big houses to run the currency as they tried in 2011/2012.
This can happend again and for the swiss centralbank it is important to prevent this to happen. The floor 1,2 is locked. They can rise the floor to prevent speculators from running the currency.
Switzerland need to have at least 1,2 peg on the euro due to fudamental reasons .

AS they can keep the floor to 1,2 They can also lift it to 1,25 and keep thet floor.
  • #13,566
  • Jan 3, 2015 7:03pm Jan 3, 2015 7:03pm
Quoting dimitri
{quote}they create profit, because for printed CHF they get real euros
You made me laugh so hard !
You think the EUROS are more "real" than the CHFs ?

They can expand their balance sheet more if they really want to. The SNB have already the highest leverage compared to GDP of all central banks.

They can almost do whatever they want.
But WHY would they want to ? There's no reason, and they told several time they have no intention to do so.
  • #13,567
  • Jan 3, 2015 7:20pm Jan 3, 2015 7:20pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
In 2012 Goldman Sach advised its most important customers in a secret report to run the CHF with a goal of the CHF to 0,85 agains the euro. This was one of the reasons that the swiss nationalbank pegged the CHF to 1,2 to euro.
Come on, they just did what they always do.
They knew the SNB would introduce the floor and they wanted to short the CHF as much as they can. They needed su*kers to take the other side of the trade, that's it. Just see how well did the people who followed their nice "advice". Btw, this report is so "secret" that you're aware of it.

Quote
They can rise the floor to prevent speculators from running the currency. [...] AS they can keep the floor to 1,2 They can also lift it to 1,25 and keep thet floor.

What you say makes NO SENS at all. Raising the floor doesn't change anything about "speculators".
Sure, they can raise it to 1.40 then. And why not 1.60, where the E/C was a few years ago, or even higher ?

The fact is that the higher the floor, the more pressure there will be on it, and probably the more they will need to buy Euros by further expanding their balance sheet. Of course they "can" do it, but I doubt they want to expand their balance sheet to infinity and beyond and there is no reason to raise the floor (except attracting a lot of Euros, especially given the euro situation and value against the other currencies)

Now, you think what you want, and you do as you want.
  • #13,568
  • Jan 4, 2015 1:00am Jan 4, 2015 1:00am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I think it was in Sept 2011 Good, SNB will speed up my target to 1.080 by raising the floor .... Weekly {image}
you're wrong,the stronger usd makes usd/chf do this hights
  • #13,569
  • Jan 4, 2015 2:21am Jan 4, 2015 2:21am
Quoting Mevo
{quote} Come on, they just did what they always do. They knew the SNB would introduce the floor and they wanted to short the CHF as much as they can. They needed su*kers to take the other side of the trade, that's it. Just see how well did the people who followed their nice "advice". Btw, this report is so "secret" that you're aware of it. {quote} What you say makes NO SENS at all. Raising the floor doesn't change anything about "speculators". Sure, they can raise it to 1.40 then. And why not 1.60, where the E/C was a few years ago, or even higher...
It was not like this and it gives no mening to discuss with you thing you know nothing abouth.
  • #13,570
  • Edited 5:39am Jan 4, 2015 5:18am | Edited 5:39am
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detai...sh-experience/

There is a mistake... Not DKK/EUR... but EUR/DKK

But imo interesting anyway...

and... https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/exch...ph-chf.en.html

This is about the rising the floor... http://georgedorgan.blogspot.cz/2012...122-again.html
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Floor Chf inflation.jpg Size: 143 KB
  • #13,571
  • Jan 4, 2015 7:42am Jan 4, 2015 7:42am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} It was not like this and it gives no mening to discuss with you thing you know nothing abouth.
You must be right, I know nothing, because I'm an idiot. I'm sure you know better than me.
However, if you want to bet on a raise of the EUR/CHF floor by the SNB, just tell much how much you want to bet on that. I take the other side of that bet, and I am ready to bet as much as you want on the fact that the SNB will NOT raise EUR/CHF floor, let's say for the next 2 years (you would really need the EuroZone to go far better for the SNB to do that, and in that case, they wouldn't need it as EC would go up by itself)


We hear this story of the SNB raising the floor since 3 years now, and you even have people digging old blog posts from 2012 about this (just look the post above)
  • #13,572
  • Jan 4, 2015 9:06am Jan 4, 2015 9:06am
Quoting Mevo
{quote} You must be right, I know nothing, because I'm an idiot. I'm sure you know better than me. However, if you want to bet on a raise of the EUR/CHF floor by the SNB, just tell much how much you want to bet on that. I take the other side of that bet, and I am ready to bet as much as you want on the fact that the SNB will NOT raise EUR/CHF floor, let's say for the next 2 years (you would really need the EuroZone to go far better for the SNB to do that, and in that case, they wouldn't need it as EC would go up by itself) We hear this story of...

I am not betting on raising the floor but I am saying it might be an option. I am very convinced the SNB will keep the floor
  • #13,573
  • Jan 4, 2015 4:07pm Jan 4, 2015 4:07pm
Did we break the peg?!!
  • #13,574
  • Jan 4, 2015 4:44pm Jan 4, 2015 4:44pm
We did according to my chart, and then straight up to 1.226 before falling back just as fast
  • #13,575
  • Jan 5, 2015 6:18am Jan 5, 2015 6:18am
Quoting yogib
We did according to my chart, and then straight up to 1.226 before falling back just as fast
You mean 1.2026 perhaps. Or what are you talking about.
  • #13,576
  • Jan 5, 2015 6:41am Jan 5, 2015 6:41am
The buying pressure on CHF must be enormous...
  • #13,577
  • Jan 5, 2015 7:25am Jan 5, 2015 7:25am
Wednesday we will see the foreign currency reserves data... It will show... The sight deposits went up, so the money is being printed.
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/g...0150105.en.pdf Last time I checked it was around 370. Now 386...
  • #13,578
  • Jan 5, 2015 11:32am Jan 5, 2015 11:32am
Quoting Devabala
Wednesday we will see the foreign currency reserves data... It will show... The sight deposits went up, so the money is being printed. http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/g...0150105.en.pdf Last time I checked it was around 370. Now 386...
seriously who cares, just buy eurchf on every dip and make money as much as possible. Right here this area is a moneymaking wonderland no need to drive yourself crazy with every news tidbit. Its clear that the SnB is determined to keep this peg in place for a long time, so just trade it but dont be stupid to place a 20 pip stop below the peg give it at least 200 pips.
consistency wins
  • #13,579
  • Jan 5, 2015 1:27pm Jan 5, 2015 1:27pm
when jordan will hold speach tonight, anybody knows time?
  • #13,580
  • Jan 5, 2015 1:44pm Jan 5, 2015 1:44pm
SNB’s Jordan: Cap key to maintain adeqaute monetary conditions
3 hours ago | January 5th, 2015 15:58:34 GMT by Adam Button View Comments
SNB President Jordan spoke with TV Eco in Switzerland:

  1. Negative rates support cap on franc
  2. Complex environment requires franc cap
  3. Negative rates work, make the franc less attractive
  4. Swiss deflation risks have risen
  5. Important not to underestimate eurozone risks

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