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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #406,161
  • Jan 2, 2015 5:23pm Jan 2, 2015 5:23pm
Quoting canerdogru
I have a question about GBP. Although many of announcement was positive, why did the GBP go down in the morning ? {image}
News are fake ...

Price and volume is ALL.
Trading 24/h
  • #406,162
  • Jan 2, 2015 6:18pm Jan 2, 2015 6:18pm
Quoting FxAndres
{quote} News are fake ... Price and volume is ALL.
what do you try to tell ?

usd news was true. and its price changed after news.
  • #406,163
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:23pm Jan 2, 2015 11:23pm
Quoting ElonMusketee
I´m on the other side of things looking at this range in red as a big bear flag on the overall move. Shorted the top of the range this week taking partial profit at around 5560 for +175 and now reshorted at the test of the channel bottom. Price has been moving sideways respecting this trendlines and we could see a break below the range. The fakeouts to the south are much more violent. {image}

big bear flag broke nicely on a 250 pip move. Hope you guys were short here. I don´t see any big level for 200 pips or so
  • #406,164
  • Jan 2, 2015 11:58pm Jan 2, 2015 11:58pm
Gidday GBP

Everyone talking down 1.53 pretty good dump really

What about a nice move back up again

I still got a few longs in

Would be nice to get in at the bottom an trade back up 1.58 etc

Or are we looking at lower levels
  • #406,165
  • Jan 3, 2015 12:11am Jan 3, 2015 12:11am
Monday intraday make me confused, casually oversold will be consolidation. My at a guess to 1.5400 and bearish to 1.5200 ⇒
  • #406,166
  • Jan 3, 2015 2:12am Jan 3, 2015 2:12am
GBPUSD 1/5/2015 to 1/10/2015 forecast

Important events http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=jan4.2015

1, Mon 5th GBP Construction PMI < This event will make 100+ down or retrace 70 pips up around 5350
2, Tue 6th GBP Services PMI , USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
3, Wed 7th EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y , USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change , USD Trade Balance , Crude Oil Inventories
4, Thu 8th USD FOMC Meeting Minutes , EUR Retail Sales m/m , GBP Official Bank Rate , GBP MPC Rate Statement , USD Unemployment Claims
5, Fri 9th CNY CPI y/y , EUR French Industrial Production m/m , GBP Manufacturing Production m/m , USD Non-Farm Employment Change USD Unemployment Rate , GBP NIESR GDP Estimate

Sat 10th CNY Trade Balance will effect Friday's weekend rally
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  • #406,167
  • Jan 3, 2015 2:19am Jan 3, 2015 2:19am
Cable had one of its biggest down days in years and what made it more exceptional was the lack of a real catalyst. Manufacturing PMI data was soft but definitely not so weak to justify a move of the size we saw on Friday. US data was also soft but nevertheless cable kept on dropping after that was released.
Many market participants are still on holiday and hence liquidity might have been quite thin. That could mean that the pair might retrace a substantial portion if not all of this last move down once people get back to their desks next week. One peculiar aspect of this move is that it wasn't characterized by quick sharp drops, typical of a low liquidity environment but it was instead steady and slow paced with virtually no meaningful retracements. That makes me question somewhat the "risk" of a pullback to the upside. I guess we're just going to have to wait til next week to find out...
  • #406,168
  • Jan 3, 2015 2:31am Jan 3, 2015 2:31am
Quoting canerdogru
I have a question about GBP. Although many of announcement was positive, why did the GBP go down in the morning ? {image}
market move based on technical chart at the time of economical event release some time that may not move based positive / negative impact because market may already move based on rumor or some big play working behind the carton so look at 4h / day chart SR before you watch economical report.
  • #406,169
  • Jan 3, 2015 2:39am Jan 3, 2015 2:39am
Erebus #406,165

Here you are.
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  • #406,170
  • Jan 3, 2015 3:13am Jan 3, 2015 3:13am
Everyone seems to be negating the net lending and consumer credit data. Which was better than expected. And the poor ism from the us which heavily weighs on the fed's decisive timeline to raise interest rate.Dont forget boe meets next week. Short term(next week) outlook i would say 1.55805
  • #406,171
  • Edited 7:29am Jan 3, 2015 4:06am | Edited 7:29am
[quote=ez0770;7971126]Cable had one of its biggest down days in years and what made it more exceptional was the lack of a real catalyst...

I agree with you. What I see, from my point of view, it's a hard downtrend in the weekly and monthly, and in the daily there has been a consolidation or distribution time, that has spent more that one month in the same area. I closed this morning the short too early and idiot of me i tried a small long after because I couldn't see any retracement. It has been a slow but straight falling during US session. I always forget this. When the cable break a R/S, stay away if you are not in the right position , the break is very hard, and the movement can get easy 200 points or more. Surprisingly, the break has been done, after 45 daysof distribution, on 2nd January, without a big new. So, everything was planned. IMO.

As there has been this movement, yes, I agree with you that a pullback it's posible. ¿Where can go this pullback? Le'ts see if the last support area, 1,55 is now a R and we do not come back to see that number again.
  • #406,172
  • Jan 3, 2015 4:22am Jan 3, 2015 4:22am
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting ez0770
Cable had one of its biggest down days in years and what made it more exceptional was the lack of a real catalyst... I agree with you. What I see, from my point of view, it's a hard downtrend in the weekly and monthly, and in the daily there has been a consolidation or distribution time, that has spent more that one month in the same area. I closed this morning the short too early and idiot of me i tried a small long after because I couldn't see any retracement. It has been a slow but straight falling during US session. I always
...
One of the points I was trying to make is that moves of this magnitude in a single day are actually quite rare and when they do happen they normally follow some meaningful data surprise or central bank intervention (verbal or material). In a low liquidity environment moves can easily be amplified as there is less size on the bid and the offer, so a reasonable size order can move the market more than it normally would consuming the available liquidity very quickly. That usually creates a market structure that is highly vulnerable to a retracement....
  • #406,173
  • Jan 3, 2015 5:48am Jan 3, 2015 5:48am
Quoting ez0770
{quote}{quote} That usually creates a market structure that is highly vulnerable to a retracement....
I hope so, then short it...
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #406,174
  • Jan 3, 2015 6:10am Jan 3, 2015 6:10am
there was weak pmi data or whatever reason usd/cad didnt have any news, its a bit correlated with eur/usd but it kept on going high anyone knows why..?
  • #406,175
  • Jan 3, 2015 6:29am Jan 3, 2015 6:29am
Quoting ptcl
there was weak pmi data or whatever reason usd/cad didnt have any news, its a bit correlated with eur/usd but it kept on going high anyone knows why..?
USD strength, mixed with thin liquidity.

Thin liquidity can create strong moves, because they go unchecked.
  • #406,176
  • Jan 3, 2015 7:34am Jan 3, 2015 7:34am
Quoting ez0770
{quote}{quote} That usually creates a market structure that is highly vulnerable to a retracement....
I agree with you, We'll see the reaction on Monday and during Asian session.
  • #406,177
  • Jan 3, 2015 8:05am Jan 3, 2015 8:05am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} I agree with you, We'll see the reaction on Monday and during Asian session.
Of course I would not just go long at the open but I think that if cable manages to recover to the 1.5400 area with enough momentum and/or fundamental reason behind it it might then "easily" extend to 1.5480/1.5500 in the short term....

Lots of data coming out next week should provide risk and opportunities for both bulls and bears. Personally, from a fundamentals point of view and as stated here before, I'm not buying into the US recovery story without QE (yet I keep an open mind and hope to be proven wrong) and I think that we already saw leading indicators such as US durable good orders showing potential headwinds for the economy going forward. Therefore, I'll be keeping a close high on US data this quarter,starting this week, looking for signs of weakness. If my view is correct and the FED eventually goes back to a more dovish stance, considering the USD has been rallying for 6 months straight going into 7, I think we might be in for a substantial correction which might mean a strong rally for cable....
  • #406,178
  • Jan 3, 2015 8:36am Jan 3, 2015 8:36am
[quote=ez0770;7971289]{quote} Of course I would not just go long at the open but I think that if cable manages to recover to the 1.5400 area with enough momentum and/or fundamental reason behind it it might then "easily" extend to 1.5480/1.5500 in the short term..

Well, you are going too long on your explanations. I scalp, and I have started to see with less leverage certain daily trades. One member from the FED, Bullard I think said a few weeks ago something about one Q4. It's possible. And the strenght of US dollar is based in the belief about one rate hike during 2015. But this are fundamentals. News, FOMC, that can make a change in the trend, a reversal, or movements about 400 PIPS.

Talking about lower frames, I see the chance to one recover to 54.xx area. As , I'll be back has stated, a great place to short, if goes there without fundamentals.

What I see that happens ``often'' , remark the word often, is if there has been a big movement on Friday, Asian session going on with this movement, a pull back often happens. Take profits from the shorts.
  • #406,179
  • Jan 3, 2015 8:42am Jan 3, 2015 8:42am
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting ez0770
{quote} Of course I would not just go long at the open but I think that if cable manages to recover to the 1.5400 area with enough momentum and/or fundamental reason behind it it might then "easily" extend to 1.5480/1.5500 in the short term.. Well, you are going too long on your explanations. I scalp, and I have started to see with less leverage certain daily trades. One member from the FED, Bullard I think said a few weeks ago something about one Q4. It's possible. And the strenght of US dollar is based in the belief about
...
...[/quote]


Good post!
  • #406,180
  • Jan 4, 2015 4:43am Jan 4, 2015 4:43am
I agree a pullback looks likely. However, don't assume there'll be one just yet IMO. It may be that we are facing a strong USD one-way road breakout that's been years in the making. (even stronger than what we've seen)
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