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  • #6,901
  • Dec 30, 2014 7:47am Dec 30, 2014 7:47am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} I wouldn't call myself a veteran of this thread - but IMHO Graeme stated many times that the entry method is not important - and anyone who position trades will agree. Graeme spoke of finding your one thing. The simplicity of millipede is find a reliable entry that gives a half decent chance of getting to BE and let the market decide what happens - and I think everyone's entry method will be different.
In a way, can I say Graeme is teaching us trading psychology?
  • #6,902
  • Dec 30, 2014 9:49am Dec 30, 2014 9:49am
Quoting Mattrix83
Thanks Pipskateer and flyer... By the way, I am reading till page 20 or so. Pipeasy seem to mention that we can only sell below the open price or buy above the open price.. Is that so? So we should nv buy if price is below the open price?
No, I don't think so. What he meant, IMHO, is that if you do decide to buy below open price, just be aware that you are, on the most basic level, complicating the process by going against the daily flow. If the market *thinks* price should be lower than where it opened for that day and you want to BUY it....AND...if you are prepared to accept the risk associated in going against that day's market flow...then do so.

The comment has recently been made that Graeme was saying that your entry method is largely unimportant. That is both true and untrue because it is a relative statement. It is unimportant with regard to the issue of participation in the market. However, it IS important with regard to participating with the flow of momentum and at the lowest net risk/cost per position. Ultimately, it is up to the trader to decide what makes sense to him/her about where the bargains are for entering. Some are adept at picking tops and bottoms. But the salmon swimming upstream, against the strong current of rushing water, have to expend a lot of energy to get to the spawning grounds.

All he is saying, IMHO, is to put as many market factors and forces postively on your side as possible.
  • #6,903
  • Dec 30, 2014 9:55am Dec 30, 2014 9:55am
Quoting Pipskateer
{quote} No, I don't think so. What he meant, IMHO, is that if you do decide to buy below open price, just be aware that you are, on the most basic level, complicating the process by going against the daily flow. If the market *thinks* price should be lower than where it opened for that day and you want to BUY it....AND...if you are prepared to accept the risk associated in going against that day's market flow...then do so. The comment has recently been made that Graeme was saying that your entry method is largely unimportant. That is both true and...
thanks bro for the enlightening words. make good sense. i need to continue reading!
  • #6,904
  • Dec 30, 2014 10:21am Dec 30, 2014 10:21am
Quoting empowers90
Are any veterans of this thread able to answer me this quick question? I've read through all of Graeme's posts and most of the thread up until he starts discussing the Flying Buddha. It seems at this point that Graeme has finished what he needs to teach and is now just discussing with members. I think it would be more valuable for me to start demo trading out of my eyeballs, as the Flying Buddha stuff doesn't really appeal to me. Good move? Tom.
Hey Tom,

I'm certainly not a "veteran" of this thread, but I know what makes sense to me as a trader for a identifying good potential entry points into the market where the risk is low. Both flying buddhas and inside bars, in my view, appear to be places where the price flow has stalled and the market is pausing to make a directional decision. Price could continue...or it could reverse. I see FB's as more of an exhaustion signal and my approach to trading them is to anticipate a reversal entry. IB's are a bit different as far as I'm concerned. On the chart (scale) where the IB actually presents, it appears as a compressed, single candle with a much smaller hi/low range than the immediately preceding candle(s). But on a lower scale/time-frame chart, that single candle most likely represents a contraction of price into a consolidation range. For me, it's all about identifying tradeable decision points in the price flow...some place where I can box price in visually and wait for a decisive market reaction so I can enter with the momentum flow at LOW RISK. Horizontal and diagonal S/R lines can also be used the same way, but tend to have somewhat less well-defined "areas" to measure my risk. But that's just me. Others may prefer horizontal/diagonal S/R over single candle structures. Bottom line is...any price structure that I can visually identify on the chart where I can anticipate a momentum breakout with high probability and low risk is potentially useful to me.
  • #6,905
  • Dec 30, 2014 10:23am Dec 30, 2014 10:23am
Quoting Pipskateer
{quote} No, I don't think so. What he meant, IMHO, is that if you do decide to buy below open price, just be aware that you are, on the most basic level, complicating the process by going against the daily flow. If the market *thinks* price should be lower than where it opened for that day and you want to BUY it....AND...if you are prepared to accept the risk associated in going against that day's market flow...then do so. The comment has recently been made that Graeme was saying that your entry method is largely unimportant. That is both true and...
Hi Pips,

Very nice. One of the clearest overviews that I have read on this thread.

Thanks, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #6,906
  • Dec 30, 2014 10:26am Dec 30, 2014 10:26am
Quoting Mattrix83
{quote} thanks bro for the enlightening words. make good sense. i need to continue reading!
And so do I... I do not believe it is an exaggeration to say that reading Graeme's posts again 100 times over would NOT be any waste of time whatsoever. Except that Graeme would most likely say not to delay our participation in the market to achieve those 100 repetitions!
  • #6,907
  • Dec 30, 2014 10:49am Dec 30, 2014 10:49am
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} Hi Pips, Very nice. One of the clearest overviews that I have read on this thread. Thanks, AG
Thank you, AB, for the very kind comments. After a three year venture into contemplating and testing other things, I have now returned to this thread with solid interest. I find that I now have a much greater perspective of money management and better ideas about what sort of trading I find most psychologically comfortable. With those things under my belt, I am now finding that Graeme's wisdom is far more valuable and logically appealing than I had originally estimated. It just really "clicks" for me now.
  • #6,908
  • Dec 30, 2014 11:00am Dec 30, 2014 11:00am
Quoting Pipskateer
{quote} And so do I... I do not believe it is an exaggeration to say that reading Graeme's posts again 100 times over would NOT be any waste of time whatsoever. Except that Graeme would most likely say not to delay our participation in the market to achieve those 100 repetitions!
agree. his words has lots of deep meaning and i guess he doesn't just tell us directly all his intended meaning. what he did, i would say, is not easy to grasp and matter.

By the way, should I be just reading the PDF with all of his posts or will it be beneficial to read the posts of others in between?
  • #6,909
  • Dec 30, 2014 4:34pm Dec 30, 2014 4:34pm
Quoting Mattrix83
{quote} agree. his words has lots of deep meaning and i guess he doesn't just tell us directly all his intended meaning. what he did, i would say, is not easy to grasp and matter. By the way, should I be just reading the PDF with all of his posts or will it be beneficial to read the posts of others in between?
If you are a beginner I would suggest to read whole thread. If you make money consistently reading PDF should be enough. But let's wait for some other opinion as I've read only first 30 pages of this thread but was enough to gather all necessary info...
Lose small, win BIG
  • #6,910
  • Dec 30, 2014 9:01pm Dec 30, 2014 9:01pm
Quoting Mattrix83
{quote} agree. his words has lots of deep meaning and i guess he doesn't just tell us directly all his intended meaning. what he did, i would say, is not easy to grasp and matter. By the way, should I be just reading the PDF with all of his posts or will it be beneficial to read the posts of others in between?

I found that reading the thread and keeping the PDF files open to view charts and see what the thread participants were asking him is the best. There are some elements in the questions asked by some users which Graeme addresses in many of his posts that you will miss by only reading his responses to their questions.
  • #6,911
  • Dec 30, 2014 9:09pm Dec 30, 2014 9:09pm
Having experience will enable you to get much more out of this thread than you otherwise might. For me at least.
Freedom 30?
  • #6,912
  • Dec 31, 2014 6:35am Dec 31, 2014 6:35am
Hello @all and Happy New Year,
I read through this wonderful thread up to page 250 so far. Many thanks to Graeme and all the others contributing. So much to learn here allthough trading since allmost 10 years+ without too much success. As tomorrow a new month begins I join in now to tell you my approach (if interested) to get in flow with the monthly trend. My intend is to maybe give an idea to someone looking for a concept that could be adapted to his personel trading stayle. Another thought is to discuss and proof if the math i made is correctly done. So with your friendly permission i start:

I have to announce that all the numbers i use are not hard proofed yet. I will do this soon....nerver forgetting Graeme`s words that its all of statistics. There must be a statistical advantage to win the game in the long run.This is my strategy. I don`t encourage anyone to do so. Its only for discussing the stability and math behind it.

1. End of month checking all pairs with hindsight of monthly and weekly candles one direction running

2. choosing the 3 pairs which look most fine continuing their trend or establishing a new huge trend

3. Near opening of the markets placing a stop order @ monthly close +/- 50 pips in the supposed direction of trend continuation

4. Placing a stop loss @ half of the previous candle

5. If stopped out making a second attempt @ monthly close previous candle +/- 50 pips (depends on the direction up/down)

6. ?????


That`s so far the raw frame to do the calculation. Now the important part of it. Is there a mathematical advantage in this approach? If yes is it worth to be followed? Let`s sharpen our minds and do the math:
To have a beginning without hard data I assume some numbers which I think are approximitaly meaningful.
a. daily candle= 80 pips move
weekly candle= 150
monthly candle=300
b. 100 trades= 50% right direction ( winners, 50 trades)
50% wrong (loosers)

c. 50 win trades= 50% first attempt (= 25 trades)
50% second (=25 trades)

d. Exit @ candleclose 1=50% =25 trades (counted only candles moving into the right direction with assumed 300 pips gain)
2=30% =15
3=15% = 7
5= 4%= 2
8= 1%= 1

Ok so far? I know there are many variables here to be proofed. But think the ratings are rather conservative.
So lets go:
winners loosers
25x 300= 7500 50x150 =7500 (SL reached)
15x 600= 9000 25x150 =3750 (SL reached 1. attempt)
7x 900= 6300 11250 pips
2x1500=3000
1x2400=2400
SUM =28200
50x 50=- 2500 (move candle minus entry)
25700 pips TOTAL OF 14450 pips profit


This was 1 pair.
We didn`t stackle intra-monthly.
There were no contra-trades.
And...the calculation based on many "small term trends" only not considering positions set to BE and forget !!!


Trade frequency:
1 pair generates 15 attempts per year ( 12x entry @ monthly close + 3x second attempt ( 6=50% winners generate 3=50% 2. attempts)).
100 trades/15 attempts =6,66 years to reach 100 trades
14450 pips profit / 6,66 years=2169 pips win per annum
2169 / 12= 180 pips win per month

So my conclusions are: YES, THERE IS A MATHEMATICAL ADVANTAGE IN THIS RAW FRAME. (estimated the numbers are nearly correct)
YES, it is worth to be followed as there are several screws which can be adapted to better the income.


Hopefully didn`t bore s.o. by this stuff. If anyone is interested to recalculate and discuss it I`d be pleased about any answer.

Have a good trading.

doerpn
Have a nice day
  • #6,913
  • Dec 31, 2014 10:50am Dec 31, 2014 10:50am
Doerpn,

I would suggest that you paper trade these parameters using historical data, either from your trading terminal history data or ForexTester2 if you have that software.

Your method rules are not entirely clear to me, but it looks like you are trading Monthly candles only, correct? Your candle pip range estimates can vary widely, depending on the pair you are considering. I'm now looking at an EURJPY Monthly candle on my FXTester from 2003 that is right at 1000 pips. That would mean a 500 pip SL. The very next candle took out the 50% of that 1000 pip candle. That would be a tough way to trade for me. Just be aware of the potential for really large monthly candles which will require much greater stops according to your rules as presented.

Every trader must do what makes the most sense for their own goals, risk tolerances, and motivations. Personally, I think Graeme offers better ways of capitalizing on the Monthly directional bias and trend, which seems to be your intent, instead of trading raw breakouts of singlular monthly candles using big stops. I'm sure there are traders who can do it that way and be successful. Perhaps you are one? I know I could not even think about attempting it.

However, with just a little bit of backtesting, I am now starting to see how it is definitely possible to begin taking positions on MONTHLY IB's, Flying Buddhas, or any other focal PA entry that offers low risk opportunities by drilling down to find entries from the lower scale charts. The natural leverage in your favor that exists from having your RISK placed on M5, but your potential reward and setup signal taken from H4, Daily, Weekly, or Monthly is just staggering to consider. Granted, it will likely take several tries to get a successful "stack" of positions (a leg) established on a big move, but successfully locking in thousands of pips in potential growth for only a few pips investment is phenomenal. A 20 pip SL compared to 5000 pip long term growth is 250:1 Reward/Risk. After 10 years of trading and testing, I have learned it is much more profitable and stress-free to have all the math stacked in my favor.
  • #6,914
  • Dec 31, 2014 11:11am Dec 31, 2014 11:11am
Quoting doerpn
Hello @all and Happy New Year, I read through this wonderful thread up to page 250 so far. Many thanks to Graeme and all the others contributing. So much to learn here allthough trading since allmost 10 years+ without too much success. As tomorrow a new month begins I join in now to tell you my approach (if interested) to get in flow with the monthly trend. My intend is to maybe give an idea to someone looking for a concept that could be adapted to his personel trading stayle. Another thought is to discuss and proof if the math i made...

Pls provide the details of initial investment you are looking at to get into this mode of trading........and then how much risk are you willing to take ........not in terms of no. of pips but $ per trades..............lets discuss it
  • #6,915
  • Dec 31, 2014 11:31am Dec 31, 2014 11:31am
Hello Pipskateer and Arvindeept,
thanks for your fast answers. I will come back to it tomorrow as in half an hour I am out to prepare for the new year....
Prost and cheers to @ and HAPPY NEW YEAR
Have a nice day
  • #6,916
  • Edited 12:14pm Dec 31, 2014 11:50am | Edited 12:14pm
Something interesting I just discovered. Not sure what it means, but I had originally assumed that Graeme's Imageshack account had been closed, possibly due to inactivity or that he was unavailable to continue it for some reason. This does not appear to be the case and the account is actually OPEN. However, it seems the photos were (mostly) deleted purposely. How do I know this?

I found one singular photo example of a failed flying buddha chart on post #837 that is still visible from Imageshack.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post3947724

If I am correct, this would seem to indicate that Graeme consciously decided to remove photos of his charts, but apparently missed one.
I remember he spoke of producing a summary book of some type with better organized flow of ideas, but perhaps he felt that what he had already shown in this thread was plenty?

While I would certainly appreciate any book that Graeme saw fit to provide, I would have to say that what he has given here already is MORE than enough for anyone willing to do the work. It just disheartens me that perhaps Graeme came to the point where he felt it necessary to remove his charts. Pure speculation on my part though. Only Graeme himself can explain this. Would really love to hear from him, but either way, I am grateful for everything he shared and am doing my best to capitalize upon it. THANK YOU, Mr. Graeme! Where ever you are!
  • #6,917
  • Jan 1, 2015 5:42am Jan 1, 2015 5:42am
Happy new year to you my friends.

It is a first day of a new year and I decided to add my 2 cents to this community. I'll do it for two reasons, no.1 because I'm really grateful to Graeme to provide this method and second, I see many traders loosing money trading it.

When you watch equity curve of most millipede traders you will see decreasing line, often coming to around -30% or even lower. Once trader gets there his (or her) psychology will be damaged. I remember Graeme's words, he said something like that your balance need to be growing and he uses diversification for this reason.

I spent weeks thinking about diversification which allows you to grow your balance and not to come to such a big drawdown. To be honest, it took ages to realize (I did manual backtests and therefore finding the right diversification method was not easy) but I got lucky.

Let me share this experience with you. Just not to spend so much time wondering why the hell you're decreasing your trading account value.

Let's assume you have found your low-risk entry strategy (whatever method you use and works for you). I really assume you're able to close at least 50% of trades at BE. If you get better results you will be rich for sure.

As millipede traders we have 2 goals:
1. Build our equity
2. Let our balance grow

Everybody in this thread knows how accomplish goal no. 1 and I'm not going to repeat what was said in previous 300+ pages of this thread
Goal no. 2 is also very important but not very common in this community. Question is how?

Most commong way of this kind of trading is moving SL to BE and wait what will happen. It means you hit BE or SL all the time and you wait for big trend. In my experience I'm able to catch that big trend 3-4 times per year and If I hit only BE or SL meantime I'll lose a shitload of money.

Diversification takes a place in its role to make some money in those periods (I'm able to make nice money only by diversification) for now. We need obviously to take some profits on the road and still allow our equity to grow.

To make long story short, try the following in your trading for the next month and you will see results (if you are able to hit BE at least....).

Instead of 1 position open 2 of them. Set SL at the same level and for one position set TP (wherever you think it is appropiate) and the other position let become a marathoner. Move both SL to BE when you think it is right time for it and let market decide what will happen. Do it everytime you enter a market. You will see that difference. But never do this if you're not able to lock most of trades at BE. In that case you will increase your drawdown. And it must be avoided.

Hope you see power of this simple method. Instead of 30% drawdown your account will be 20% up when your legs are strong.

Have a good rest and enjoy 2015 (and following years too).

Regards,
Adam
Lose small, win BIG
  • #6,918
  • Jan 1, 2015 7:07am Jan 1, 2015 7:07am
Hi Adam and @ all,
i wish a wonderfull happy NEW YEAR with our wishes hopefully becoming reality.
I fully agree to your post above. As Graeme often said:"Melk the last drop out of the markets!". In my opinion letting the market come back after a rallye of about 500 pips and taking SL of a single position is not the right approach I think. Not to speak about the psychological stress you might have by acting this way. So several positions seem to be the solution. I intend to build positions using 3 different Stopps:
1. SL moved to BE and let the market do its way
2. SL moved to BE and later using Trailstopp to catch most of the move of every special trend
3. SL moved to BE and later using Targetstopp to catch the move up to important resistance zones
4. ??? perhaps there is still another complementing way to melk the moves out....
By this approach - after having done statistical research about the most likely behaviour of monthly moves/candles - I think to have covered almost all of my targets:
1. participating on the longest trends (yearly never ending moves)
2. growing the account with minimal DDs
3. being confident by stressless trading

Any thoughts?

Besides this- I am up to page 260 (Juli 2012) reading this wonderful thread (again thanks to Graeme and all other contributors).
As I can see Graeme`s last appearance here was in jun 2011. Do I miss anything by not reading the following 86 pages?
Would take about 3-4 full days....


Thanks
Have a nice day
  • #6,919
  • Jan 1, 2015 7:18am Jan 1, 2015 7:18am
Quoting doerpn
Hi Adam and @ all, i wish a wonderfull happy NEW YEAR with our wishes hopefully becoming reality. I fully agree to your post above. As Graeme often said:"Melk the last drop out of the markets!". In my opinion letting the market come back after a rallye of about 500 pips and taking SL of a single position is not the right approach I think. Not to speak about the psychological stress you might have by acting this way. So several positions seem to be the solution. I intend to build positions using 3 different Stopps: 1. SL moved to BE and...
I think those 3-4 days are worth spending. Maybe you find something interesting.

I personally love weekly chart but my capital is not big enough to trade it for now. I mean SL size would be much bigger, but hopefully one day...

I have seen your method description and I think it could work very well but would be very difficult mentally. I'd appreciate your journal to see results and mainly your emotions descriptions. Demo trading would be enough (forextester as well) to see what your idea may do in long term...
Feel free to PM me, I'd like to discuss it ...
Lose small, win BIG
  • #6,920
  • Jan 1, 2015 7:36am Jan 1, 2015 7:36am
Quoting Pipskateer
Doerpn, I would suggest that you paper trade these parameters using historical data, either from your trading terminal history data or ForexTester2 if you have that software. Your method rules are not entirely clear to me, but it looks like you are trading Monthly candles only, correct? Your candle pip range estimates can vary widely, depending on the pair you are considering. I'm now looking at an EURJPY Monthly candle on my FXTester from 2003 that is right at 1000 pips. That would mean a 500 pip SL. The very next candle took out the 50% of that...
Pipskateer, I fully agree to your posting. You are right, first thing to do is doing the math using historical data (Yes, my MT4 offers them to load into excel ). This way I want to get concrete numbers to be able to get the advantage on my side. The calculation I made in my first post was just a basis to have a start. I never would set a 500 pips stopp. If data check tells for example that in history there is a 50% chance of a retrace to 50% of previous candle and a 40% chance of a retrace to 33% of the previous candle I have to put these numbers into the right proportion of my entries and stopps to get the advantage on my side. My first post only should tell some new traders reading here and perhaps some experienced traders doubting about Graeme`s method that the basis of it has got the advantage on our side.

Greetings
Have a nice day
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