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  • #946,461
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:26pm Dec 26, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting srt
{quote} If the pattern keeps repeating, this might base for a while before falling off the cliff again. {image}
The hourly is even more obvious.

Very easy trading for retail the last month. Two weeks....well for bears anyway. Bulls may have been falling into the same trap over and over again (catching the bottom).

A smart bull would realize that their best chance to catch the bottom will be around the 2012 low...or at least after a bullish engulfing on the weekly..and subsequent retest. That's how I'd play it as a bull anyway. I may not be a smart bull though :nerd:
  • #946,462
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:34pm Dec 26, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} The hourly is even more obvious. Very easy trading for retail the last month. Two weeks....well for bears anyway. Bulls may have been falling into the same trap over and over again (catching the bottom). A smart bull would realize that their best chance to catch the bottom will be around the 2012 low...or at least after a bullish engulfing on the weekly..and subsequent retest. That's how I'd play it as a bull anyway. I may not be a smart bull though :nerd:
honestly there are no smart bulls around because trying to catch the bottom or catching a falling knife wouldnt be smart much would it??

btw im still advocating EURUSD to approach parity in the next 2-3 years when Fed benchmark interest reaches normalization around 3-4%
so watch out.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #946,463
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:46pm Dec 26, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} The hourly is even more obvious. Very easy trading for retail the last month. Two weeks....well for bears anyway. Bulls may have been falling into the same trap over and over again (catching the bottom). A smart bull would realize that their best chance to catch the bottom will be around the 2012 low...or at least after a bullish engulfing on the weekly..and subsequent retest. That's how I'd play it as a bull anyway. I may not be a smart bull though :nerd:
Why? can we only long a reversal? Lets say a make 50 pips on my long, my broker will still give me the money. They won't keep it just because I didn't catch some bottom. I am not looking for bottoms or tops on weekly or monthly charts and 99% of people in here are scalpers, so I am really getting sick of explaining it again and again like in pre-school. I am not opening a trade and leaving the computer for 5 years, jesus fucking christ. This is the last time I am talking about this.

If this turns btw, it will be just as funny as when it turned at 3990 and people kept adding to longs. Eventually they will keep adding to shorts and the same will happen, so everyone stop acting like you have a clue on how deep this goes, because you have no idea. I just hope you guys won't get trapped like the bulls 1800 pips higher.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #946,464
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:48pm Dec 26, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} honestly there are no smart bulls around because trying to catch the bottom or catching a falling knife wouldnt be smart much would it?? btw im still advocating EURUSD to approach parity in the next 2-3 years when Fed benchmark interest reaches normalization around 3-4% so watch out.
If FED raised the rate anytime soon, US would need to declare bankrupcy, so that would only fuck the dollar up, not make it stronger.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #946,465
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:49pm Dec 26, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Why? can we only long a reversal? Lets say a make 50 pips on my long, my broker will still give me the money. They won't keep it just because I didn't catch some bottom. I am not looking for bottoms or tops on weekly or monthly charts and 99% of people in here are scalpers, so I am really getting sick of explaining it again and again like in pre-school. I am not opening a trade and leaving the computer for 5 years, jesus fucking christ. This is the last time I am talking about this. If this turns btw, it will be just as funny as when it...
Explained the best way ever ...
  • #946,466
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:52pm Dec 26, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} If FED raised the rate anytime soon, US would need to declare bankrupcy, so that would only fuck the dollar up, not make it stronger.
That is very very limited view on financial markets and CBses. Thats why most of people who have been calling for similar scenario have been wrong for many years now. You need to underand rate % and FED power of policies and current bubble. Only then you can call realistic bankrupt.

Btw i do not dissagree on your previous comment about technicals, which is on the point, just tryping to point where you are wrong on fundamentals.
  • #946,467
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:54pm Dec 26, 2014 12:54pm
too much coffee


http://i.huffpost.com/gadgets/slides...85763_free.gif
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #946,468
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:54pm Dec 26, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} If FED raised the rate anytime soon, US would need to declare bankrupcy, so that would only fuck the dollar up, not make it stronger.
dont worry buddy, this time if FED raises the interest rates, it wont be the US economy suffering.
it will be the emerging market suffering...
we have seen both US Fixed Income and US Equities both rising in value (usually if equities are up, fixed incomes should be down)... why? because of fund flows abroad back into the US to catch the rising interest rates in US.

so US is going to continue their dominance but at the expense of dying developed nations like europe, and also emerging markets that has been rising in crazy paces that has seen them slowing down the more we get closer to fed rate hikes.

anyways i dont expect you to know. you need to be in the industry to see and hear about where the fund flows are going.

and i can tell you. Money is moving hard from Emerging market (brazil, venezuela, vietnam, thailand, india) back into ----->>>> United States of America.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #946,469
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:56pm Dec 26, 2014 12:56pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} think Putin will retaliate soon. would be the immediate cessation of natural gas flows to Europe
So Putin would cut off the little bit of income he has?
  • #946,470
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:57pm Dec 26, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} That is very very limited view on financial markets and CBses. Thats why most of people who have been calling for similar scenario have been wrong for many years now. You need to underand rate % and FED power of policies and current bubble. Only then you can call realistic bankrupt.
I have an university degree in economics. This shit is beyond saving now...it could have been saved by letting the big moronic companies go bankrupt, the market itself would decide who is "healthy" enough to stay in business. It is never good when the government gets involved too much. And bailing out the biggest companies just so the ceos can take their whores to Bahamas and laugh at the taxpayer's expense, thats the dumbest way to run a country. Like I said...this shit is beyond repair...the clock is ticking...
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #946,471
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:58pm Dec 26, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} dont worry buddy, this time if FED raises the interest rates, it wont be the US economy suffering. it will be the emerging market suffering... we have seen both US Fixed Income and US Equities both rising in value (usually if equities are up, fixed incomes should be down)... why? because of fund flows abroad back into the US to catch the rising interest rates in US. so US is going to continue their dominance but at the expense of dying developed nations like europe, and also emerging markets that has been rising in crazy paces that has seen...


I had to higlight all this post becouse thats exactly what its going on. Its complete transfer of capital from EM to USA now, even with FED only talking on hiking, and if hiking starts its only gona go exponential. People or lets say traders need to understand how this is going to impact markets, currencies especially.
  • #946,472
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:58pm Dec 26, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
too much coffee {image}
Inserted Video
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #946,473
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:59pm Dec 26, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting fxtyrant
US is going to continue their dominance but at the expense of dying developed nations like europe
Its not really hard to dominate over Europe, which is run by bureauratic dinosaurs, but it will be hard to keep up with Asia.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #946,474
  • Dec 26, 2014 12:59pm Dec 26, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting rehorst
{quote} So Putin would cut off the little bit of income he has?
on many "no fly list"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #946,475
  • Dec 26, 2014 1:00pm Dec 26, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I had to higlight all this post becouse thats exactly what its going on. Its complete transfer of capital from EM to USA now, even with FED only talking on hiking, and if hiking starts its only gona go exponential. People or lets say traders need to understand how this is going to impact markets, currencies especially.
now my curiosity.....
when emerging market is in trouble after all the fund flow back to the US... whos gona bail these emerging markets this time... it be an interesting thing to watch out for.
IMF?? or China?
china has bailed out russia, venezuela etc etc.
cant wait to see.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #946,476
  • Edited 1:18pm Dec 26, 2014 1:07pm | Edited 1:18pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Its not really hard to dominate over Europe, which is run by bureauratic dinosaurs, but it will be hard to keep up with Asia.
Exactly great point. Barrosso, the long necked dinosaur of EU will survive and keep dominating without any carnivours being alive in EU that are oposoe to it (unless coutning in UKPI). But in Asia its picture of 1000s of pieces of their party no matter which country it is.

Quote
now my curiosity.....
when emerging market is in trouble after all the fund flow back to the US... whos gona bail these emerging markets this time... it be an interesting thing to watch out for.
IMF?? or China?
china has bailed out russia, venezuela etc etc.
cant wait to see.

Hey good point. China wont. China is EM. China has limited capital and power. If China wants to extend power it needs to counter western world. That comes in price of Russia, and since China is playing double sided game at moment this doesnt seem likely. And besides that Chinas monetary power compared to USA is many many times smaller. You cannot outprint dollar in any way, nor come close to it in financial power if you want to stand against it, unless you outleash power of physical sup-dem, which is only gold. And lets consider that China wants to get into SDR in 2015, it seems like China wants to play Gangnam style, and keep it cool, dont want any hard feelings with USA.
The only institution that can bail whole world when things go deep, is IMF. And thats what globalists plan it for. So let me say again, if i see 3% rate hike by FED things will go mad, thats when globalists will plan to collapse structure to introduce SDR. Its perfect plan. Its how it was done previously, and i expect it to be done again. If hike is lower than that its just big ass currency war, which still is going to be very harsh on many countries though.

Ask yourself this question:
why would China want SDR in 2015, if it has capital power and tons of gold and treasuries and bonds ,and independce of petro-currency to have its own potential. Why? Its quite simple answer. It is in above words.
Look previous history. Those who said no to petrodollar. What happened to them.
Look at those who said to those that said no to wheat-coin (same proxy state) in times for JC 0AD. What happened to them.
History,gpol, and ecomacro tells you if you dare with devil you are gona get hammered at least.
  • #946,477
  • Edited 1:18pm Dec 26, 2014 1:07pm | Edited 1:18pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Its not really hard to dominate over Europe, which is run by bureauratic dinosaurs, but it will be hard to keep up with Asia.
tell me something buddy, we all talk about China's economy being amazing and this and that...
but during the years of 2012 and 2013, those financial year both Shenzhen and Shanghai A-Shares composite index have recorded negative ytd gains, for 2 consecutive years....
while during that period. China has claimed that their economy grew 7-8% per annum, my question is...
if corporations reflects a country's true driver for growth, why has China grew 7-8% in 2012 and 2013 while China equities in that period has recorded losses for the same time period??
(I actually did my dissertation on this subject)

you might say US has a lot to catch up with asia, but to me... Asia has a lot to catch up in moving their heavily export based economy into a domestic lead growth.... to become as big as US in terms of a domestic led economy... China really needs to catch up in GDP Per capita, and they are still 10-20 years behind.... yes granted their GDP is about to surpass US but then again their GDP growth is coming from rather unreliable growth.... i would even dare to say a cooked up growth through governments' over-investment in infrasctructure that no body needs or uses... to compensate for their growth slowdown... but the real challenge asia and china has. is to let the people's wages in say china, vietnam, thailand, brazil, rise so that per capita they could catch up with the US to truly become a dominant economy....

btw 60% of the worlds' reserve currency is still based in USD because USD buys more stuff. 2nd places is the Euro at a measely figure of under 20%..... GBP around 13%.... soo yea still a long way to go to kick the US out of their game.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #946,478
  • Dec 26, 2014 1:11pm Dec 26, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I have an university degree in economics. This shit is beyond saving now...it could have been saved by letting the big moronic companies go bankrupt, the market itself would decide who is "healthy" enough to stay in business. It is never good when the government gets involved too much. And bailing out the biggest companies just so the ceos can take their whores to Bahamas and laugh at the taxpayer's expense, thats the dumbest way to run a country. Like I said...this shit is beyond repair...the clock is ticking...
its all comparable. the u.s. just has to out run the slower...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #946,479
  • Dec 26, 2014 1:13pm Dec 26, 2014 1:13pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post6187201
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #946,480
  • Dec 26, 2014 1:18pm Dec 26, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} tell me something buddy, we all talk about China's economy being amazing and this and that... but during the years of 2012 and 2013, those financial year both Shenzhen and Shanghai A-Shares composite index have recorded negative ytd gains, for 2 consecutive years.... while during that period. China has claimed that their economy grew 7-8% per annum, my question is... if corporations reflects a country's true driver for growth, why has China grew 7-8% in 2012 and 2013 while China equities in that period has recorded losses for the same time...
China has still a lot of work to do, but look how they started...10-20 years ago they were only good to make products for the west, because of the cheap labor and weak employment laws, so every company has been exploiting the workers to the fullest. They were completely depending on export back then. Look where they are now...I don't remember the exact numbers, but the growth of domestic purchase power is huge, might be 60% domestic 40% export now, I really don't remember the exact numbers. And in another 10-20 years they won't need anyone anymore, they won't need the west to survive, because their middle class will be strong enough. Good thing for them is that Europe and the US are used to dominate the world, but they are too slow in adapting to new things, while China is hungry for success and will do anything it takes, even of they have to sacrifice their own people for it. Because the Chinese, just like the Russians, will always need strong leaders and they will never "fight" them. That is something the west can't do.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
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