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  • #945,401
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:12pm Dec 19, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} well i dunno if fed is gona hike it to 3% at Q2 2016. but you can get an idea here... some people thought i was nuts to even suggests fed interest rates to get as high as 3%. but i guess the fed is as nuts as i am...
Top-notch , Tyrant
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #945,402
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:15pm Dec 19, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Top-notch , Tyrant
im surprised how many people here on forexfactory have no idea what the fed is planning.
they have been talking about raising interest rate as part of a rate normalization program....
so 3% wasnt a crazy idea.... besides the 2008 housing market collapse occured when interest rates was around 7% or something so 3% is not that painful...
also at 7% there were much more high risk loans approved to people who literally cannot afford to borrow money.
im pretty sure this time..... even if interest rates could go up to 9% or above, the market would not suffer the same fate simply because homeowner loans are not as loosely approved as they were back in 2007.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,403
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:35pm Dec 19, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} im surprised how many people here on forexfactory have no idea what the fed is planning. they have been talking about raising interest rate as part of a rate normalization program.... so 3% wasnt a crazy idea.... besides the 2008 housing market collapse occured when interest rates was around 7% or something so 3% is not that painful... also at 7% there were much more high risk loans approved to people who literally cannot afford to borrow money. im pretty sure this time..... even if interest rates could go up to 9% or above, the market would...
Dissagree. I dont want to get into severe discusson on forums. Lets just agree to completly dissagree. 9% is abosolute hollyday makeup for FED in my view. If that happens i surrender my hobbit hole to you, not including USD collapse.
  • #945,404
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:45pm Dec 19, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} im surprised how many people here on forexfactory have no idea what the fed is planning. they have been talking about raising interest rate as part of a rate normalization program.... so 3% wasnt a crazy idea.... besides the 2008 housing market collapse occured when interest rates was around 7% or something so 3% is not that painful... also at 7% there were much more high risk loans approved to people who literally cannot afford to borrow money. im pretty sure this time..... even if interest rates could go up to 9% or above, the market would...
Yup, fed funds futures definitely pointing to that direction ... also falling oil prices: gonna be a huge deal going forward.
And if all goes somewhat passably well they may start approving high-risk loans at higher interest rates yet again ... and start talking about home equity growth (remember that one? Oh boy.)
Let's hope for the best.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #945,405
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:46pm Dec 19, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Dissagree. I dont want to get into severe discusson on forums. Lets just agree to completly dissagree. 9% is abosolute hollyday makeup for FED in my view. If that happens i surrender my hobbit hole to you, not including USD collapse.
im just curious.....
would you rather.

Lending money to people with bad credit history at 3% per annum?
or lending money to legit hard working people with Great credit history at 9% per annum?

a lot of people defaulted back in 2007 simply because they couldnt even afford the loans to begin with....
we called this Ninja loans.... too many ninja loans were approvedpre 2007 so when interest rates began rising. about 50% of the loans approved defaulted...

now im not so sure we will have a repeat of 2007 if interest rates goes back up to 5%.
1st of all, there are not as much loans approved now as in back in 2007.
2nd of all, credit approvals process are much more complicated and even banks are not willing to lend out.... so theres not much chance of a default out there if rates goes up to 5%. im talking about US internally....

but im sure interest rates rise in US will have an effect on fund flowing out of emerging markets as funds start to love the US economy who wouldnt love to park their money in a country where it gives you an annual interest of 3% per annum like people did back when australia interest rate was around 4% in 2012.....

so yea US Dollar still has a lot of strength in the tank.... in fact its just the beginning.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,406
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:49pm Dec 19, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Yup, fed funds futures definitely pointing to that direction ... also falling oil prices: gonna be a huge deal going forward. And if all goes somewhat passably well they may start approving high-risk loans at higher interest rates yet again ... and start talking about home equity growth (remember that one? Oh boy.) Let's hope for the best.
well im not so sure about high risk loans in the domestic us markets again....
but there is some high risk ie high yield stuff in the world....
did i mention that a lot of Chinese corporates are issuing bonds in the category of High yield bonds at 6-7% per annum with credit rating BBBs?
and these Chinese corporate bonds are denominated in US, Euro, GBP etc etc....
and some Chinese corporate bonds have already begun defaulting... sounds familiar??
Home owners defaulting in US back in 2007? only now the scenario is Chinese corporate defaulting on bonds....
so like i said.... the next collapse is likely gona be in the emerging market.... and BRICS in particular.
Russia already fucked.
next up i think is Brazil, then India, but im not so sure about China. i think the US dont dare to hurt China because they would hurt themselves too.... too much US manufacturing firms in China....

but Brazil and India are next after Russia....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,407
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:50pm Dec 19, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} how may i ask is the Swiss economy good?? have you been to Switzerland? did you realize that a Switzerland has perhaps the most expensive McDonalds' meal in the world? why do you think the Swiss economy is desperate to go negative interest rates? why do you think SNB wants to expand their monetary base? well the answer is simple, their economic growth is slowing down just like Europe... and Europe's Mcdonalds are also one of the most expensive in the world...
This is the key to my fundamental analysis
  • #945,408
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:53pm Dec 19, 2014 3:53pm
If Eur make parity means gbp will down under 1.40? :O
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #945,409
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:54pm Dec 19, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} This is the key to my fundamental analysis
btw the mcdonalds in europe and switzerland are expensive because of "cost push inflation" the bad kind of inflation that doesnt spur growth...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,410
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:55pm Dec 19, 2014 3:55pm
Quoting braintheboss
If Eur make parity means gbp will down under 1.40? :O
well are you really surprised? GBP has been notoriously overvalued for decades.
but they can afford to be overvalued since their economy is not so much an export oriented economy.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,411
  • Dec 19, 2014 4:02pm Dec 19, 2014 4:02pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} well are you really surprised? GBP has been notoriously overvalued for decades. but they can afford to be overvalued since their economy is not so much an export oriented economy.
Not surprised, just learn new things each day. Only 2 years at forex and really I'm starting understand all that things better now...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #945,412
  • Dec 19, 2014 4:05pm Dec 19, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} well im not so sure about high risk loans in the domestic us markets again.... but there is some high risk ie high yield stuff in the world.... did i mention that a lot of Chinese corporates are issuing bonds in the category of High yield bonds at 6-7% per annum with credit rating BBBs? and these Chinese corporate bonds are denominated in US, Euro, GBP etc etc.... and some Chinese corporate bonds have already begun defaulting... sounds familiar?? Home owners defaulting in US back in 2007? only now the scenario is Chinese corporate defaulting...
cheap oil prices are great equalizer for chinese economy as a huge energy consumer ... all other economies you mentioned will be royally screwed by rising rates.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #945,413
  • Dec 19, 2014 4:11pm Dec 19, 2014 4:11pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} btw the mcdonalds in europe and switzerland are expensive because of "cost pull inflation" the bad kind of inflation that doesnt spur growth...
In other words, they are expensive because there is awful lot of money circulating in that tiny amount of land compared to other countries. Or simply that can be explained by the GDP per capita ratio, isn't it?
  • #945,414
  • Dec 19, 2014 4:17pm Dec 19, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} cheap oil prices are great equalizer for chinese economy as a huge energy consumer ... all other economies you mentioned will be royally screwed by rising rates.
lol nice use of word.
Royally...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,415
  • Dec 19, 2014 4:23pm Dec 19, 2014 4:23pm
My wish for january
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  • #945,416
  • Dec 19, 2014 4:26pm Dec 19, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} In other words, they are expensive because there is awful lot of money circulating in that tiny amount of land compared to other countries. Or simply that can be explained by the GDP per capita ratio, isn't it?
ummm no
cost pull factors include...
lethargic work force.... (a work force in europe thats not flexible enough making labour costs much higher than its supposed to be)
cost of production also majorly impacted by europe's austerity programs (where government is taxing heavily and not spending much on infrastructure)

but all this is rising cost of production isnt because of demand. but rather a shrinking capacity in production......
and thats bad news because that negative/stagnating growth...... and this spiral is going to continue on if the ECB doesnt provide stimulus to the economy.
what the ECB should be doing now is print shit loads of money, give this money for free to the people and hope that the people would spend this money that gets circulated in the economy, and hopefully give demand to provide growth to the economy.... the multiplier effect will also come to help on more stimulus, a simple 10 billion euro can potentially result to 1 trillion euro in transaction as euro gets exchanged from hand to hand, that would really get the economy going.....

but ECB needs to ask themselves.... by printing money, how do i make this money readily available for the people? (well the bank sure didnt make it easy, Europe is hellbent stingy on providing loans to people, and their stingyness is a big reason why previous QE or interest rate cuts are not doing the desired effect, the Banks are hoarding the extra cash.... partly because the banks themselves need the cash to meet capital requirment set by the BASEL IIII framework, so no money printed acutlaly ended up in the high streets being spent in shops)
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,417
  • Dec 19, 2014 4:30pm Dec 19, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting Petr.K
My wish for january {image}
dude stop hoping.... holding on to EURCHF longs is only gona make ur life a misery..... it doesnt even move..... and it only moves up when a big decision happens like SNB monetary policy....
while you wait for big decision they are already sucking the life out of your EURCHF longs from really hefty negative swaps....
besides i dont understand EURCHF's rationale in holding that 1.2 floor....
im beginning to wonder how on earth the SNB is gona hold onto that when ECB is about to announce more easing in Q1 2015....

history has taught us that SNB has never succeeded in holding a peg/floor indefinitely..... something's gotta give.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,418
  • Edited 4:46pm Dec 19, 2014 4:32pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} I live close to swiss..i know the situation here..yes.i agree..swiss is expensive but it is expensive since ages. Why US economy is growing although they have such huge national debt? the growing economy is just a gas in ballon. The gas in ballon will expand more when -ve rates imposed. Remember it is just GAS which is pure debt. it will burst for good. I see US interest rates to sky rocket in next 5-10 years..who knows 30-40-50-60-70-80-90-100-500-1000% or more..But this will happen for sure.
go back pre 40 years,, that's where energy takes the world. all u.s. recessions since in the last 45 years were caused by oil spikes... that fact is less weighted now, to more null in the future. its more weighted to ones with, more energy cost comparably (Europe Asia). like it was prier to the 70ties. few of us here were trading then, there no experts. gold, oil, social unrest, in countries with oil, and many more things were posted before they were in the history books of today, and have long been posted here.. as well as the return of the 200 year trend with the reversal of the 40 year one. including the future civil and other wars because of the turn.. the new economy will flourish where energy is cheaper comparably. in the others it will wither toward pre 70ties. most here dont have a clue of norm and whats about to happen
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #945,419
  • Dec 19, 2014 4:34pm Dec 19, 2014 4:34pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} dude stop hoping.... holding on to EURCHF longs is only gona make ur life a misery..... it doesnt even move..... and it only moves up when a big decision happens like SNB monetary policy.... while you wait for big decision they are already sucking the life out of your EURCHF longs from really hefty negative swaps.... besides i dont understand EURCHF's rationale in holding that 1.2 floor.... im beginning to wonder how on earth the SNB is gona hold onto that when ECB is about to announce more easing in Q1 2015.... history has taught us that...

Im not hoping im just waiting for a trade :-)) And not holding any position at eu/chf .
With the rest completely Agree :-)
  • #945,420
  • Dec 19, 2014 5:02pm Dec 19, 2014 5:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} go back pre 40 years,, that's where energy takes the world. all u.s. recessions since in the last 45 years were caused by oil spikes... that fact is less weighted now, to more null in the future. its more weighted to ones with, more energy cost comparably (Europe Asia). like it was prier to the 70ties. few of us here were trading then, there no experts. gold, oil, social unrest, in countries with oil, and many more things were posted before they were in the history books of today, and have long been posted here.. as well as the return of...
Russia, qatar to suffer the same as nigeria did...
i wonder where Brazil might suffer.....

What in the word does brazil produce that the Americans have Abundant of to screw with brazil? this is a question i have been trying to figure out...

but India looks to be in trouble already....
i have a bad feeling that Gold would collapse in an american planned coup where the fed might suddenly decide to use other commodities to back the USD rather than Gold...
india will be holding tons of useless metal as gold prices fall further....

I swear to god the Americans are out to get the BRICs for establishing that BRICs development fund to go against the IMF...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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