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  • #945,361
  • Dec 19, 2014 1:49pm Dec 19, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} There will not be any hike at first. They need to remove 0.25%< and keep something fixed like 0.0% or may be -0.25% or lesser which i'm expecting. Then we can expect hike from Q4 or may be in 2016.
buddy your forecase is a little too slow, treasury yields are already hinting at latest Q2 2015, if not earlier.
also Fed rate rightnow being <0.25% is above 0%, and tapering of QE is over. so the only thing to move the money supply now is the increase of interest rates.... 0% and going negative is absolutely bullshit because going to 0 or into negative interest rates is a form of Expansionary Monetary Policy, thats what central banks use when economy is not doing so well.... ECB is an example. their interest rates now in negative, and that QE is likely....

i dont see Fed doing the same thing. too many indicators of the US economy are much better compared to the Eurozone's datas.
the US economy is surprisingly Isolated from the worldwide economy, as evidenced by their equity market rising despite falling commodity prices affecting the emerging market economy....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #945,362
  • Dec 19, 2014 1:52pm Dec 19, 2014 1:52pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} is that meHiko? looks like they got usd/rub --bed , nice rally last 4 months ...
?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #945,363
  • Dec 19, 2014 1:56pm Dec 19, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} buddy your forecase is a little too slow, treasury yields are already hinting at latest Q2 2015, if not earlier. also Fed rate rightnow being <0.25% is above 0%, and tapering of QE is over. so the only thing to move the money supply now is the increase of interest rates.... 0% and going negative is absolutely bullshit because going to 0 or into negative interest rates is a form of Expansionary Monetary Policy, thats what central banks use when economy is not doing so well.... ECB is an example. their interest rates now in negative, and that...
Why SNB kept -ve rates although the economy is too good than US? (don't say US economy is better than Swiss)
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #945,364
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:00pm Dec 19, 2014 2:00pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} Why SNB kept -ve rates although the economy is too good than US?
how may i ask is the Swiss economy good?? have you been to Switzerland? did you realize that a Switzerland has perhaps the most expensive McDonalds' meal in the world? why do you think the Swiss economy is desperate to go negative interest rates?
why do you think SNB wants to expand their monetary base? well the answer is simple, their economic growth is slowing down just like Europe... and Europe's Mcdonalds are also one of the most expensive in the world...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #945,365
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:00pm Dec 19, 2014 2:00pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} No. First rate hike likely Q2 2015, ECB easing likely Q1 2015. parity when FED rate hike reaches 3-3.5% while ECB remains in QE.
3+% rate hike by FED hahaha. Thanks for laugh. If that happens i buy you many beers for that laugh.

1%+ i consider severe.

0+hike is strong impact on markets.
  • #945,366
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:04pm Dec 19, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} how may i ask is the Swiss economy good?? have you been to Switzerland? did you realize that a Switzerland has perhaps the most expensive McDonalds' meal in the world? why do you think the Swiss economy is desperate to go negative interest rates? why do you think SNB wants to expand their monetary base? well the answer is simple, their economic growth is slowing down just like Europe... and Europe's Mcdonalds are also one of the most expensive in the world...
The question is why their economic growth is slowing. Its becouse of their monetary policy. If you tie your monetary policy to ECB you can only do as much as ECB does. So if EU zone inflation is risng/falling and you are SNB you have to pick it up with EU zone, and becouse if you are SNB being 5 or 10 times smaller you ahve to print 5 or 10 times more(deflation only counted in financial markets)! Therefore even if you are best Robin Hood in current markets its hard to hide your balance sheet, inflation will start to pour somewhere, therefore, MCD prices up.
  • #945,367
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:05pm Dec 19, 2014 2:05pm
Where do you see EU next year?
Where do you see the high and the low of this pair on the first quarter of the next year?
Do you believe that we can arrive at 1,25-1,3 in the first quarter of the next year?
Thanks!
  • #945,368
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:05pm Dec 19, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} 3+% rate hike by FED hahaha. Thanks for laugh. If that happens i buy you many beers for that laugh. 1%+ i consider severe. 0+hike is strong impact on markets.
when fed talks about interest rates normalization, he means bringing interest rates back up to previous levels.... need i remind you that interest rates in 2007 was as high as 5%?
im already conserve to forecast interest rates in the next 3 years to get back to around 3%.
you can laugh all you want.. im just saying it as it is.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #945,369
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:06pm Dec 19, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} how may i ask is the Swiss economy good?? have you been to Switzerland? did you realize that a Switzerland has perhaps the most expensive McDonalds' meal in the world? why do you think the Swiss economy is desperate to go negative interest rates? why do you think SNB wants to expand their monetary base? well the answer is simple, their economic growth is slowing down just like Europe... and Europe's Mcdonalds are also one of the most expensive in the world...
I live close to swiss..i know the situation here..yes.i agree..swiss is expensive but it is expensive since ages.

Why US economy is growing although they have such huge national debt? the growing economy is just a gas in ballon.

The gas in ballon will expand more when -ve rates imposed. Remember it is just GAS which is pure debt. it will burst for good.

I see US interest rates to sky rocket in next 5-10 years..who knows 30-40-50-60-70-80-90-100-500-1000% or more..But this will happen for sure.
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #945,370
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:08pm Dec 19, 2014 2:08pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} how may i ask is the Swiss economy good?? have you been to Switzerland? did you realize that a Switzerland has perhaps the most expensive McDonalds' meal in the world? why do you think the Swiss economy is desperate to go negative interest rates? why do you think SNB wants to expand their monetary base? well the answer is simple, their economic growth is slowing down just like Europe... and Europe's Mcdonalds are also one of the most expensive in the world...
I hope that whoever vouched you, as it says you are ''top 1% member'', are not as clueless as you sir, I don't think I can stop calling you a clown, even though I have done it many times before.
It is not that I care about red thing next to one's name, but what concerns me is that new members, who come here for help, are relying on those who are ''supposed to know more'' than others. I wish that whoever is in charge of FF was to get rid of this distinction(medium-high impact member nonsense), it does no good at all.
  • #945,371
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:10pm Dec 19, 2014 2:10pm
OK so we'll probably hit 1.22, or little below 1.2180 before retrace. How much retrace do you guys expect? 1.2280, 1.2360?
  • #945,372
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:11pm Dec 19, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} when fed talks about interest rates normalization, he means bringing interest rates back up to previous levels.... need i remind you that interest rates in 2007 was as high as 5%? im already conserve to forecast interest rates in the next 3 years to get back to around 3%. you can laugh all you want.. im just saying it as it is.
Ok fair enough, here is what am i going to say. If USD interest rate gets to 3% i call market collapse. If FED raises rates that high i look forward to see SDR as reserve currency very soon and completly devaluation of current currency market. That within few years eg max 5 years, most possible 3 years max from now.
All i look are signals in fundamental analysis. I was looking for SNB rate cut for months. Now that it has came, it gave me signal QE is coming for ECB. If FED raises rates to 3% or more like you say that is another signal to me, which i consider total market collapse. Thats all i am gona say, you fell to judge me on 1st February.
Thats for ECB first. For FED target is 2016 Q1.
  • #945,373
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:11pm Dec 19, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} The question is why their economic growth is slowing. Its becouse of their monetary policy. If you tie your monetary policy to ECB you can only do as much as ECB does. So if EU zone inflation is risng/falling and you are SNB you have to pick it up with EU zone, and becouse if you are SNB being 5 or 10 times smaller you ahve to print 5 or 10 times more(deflation only counted in financial markets)! Therefore even if you are best Robin Hood in current markets its hard to hide your balance sheet, inflation will start to pour somewhere, therefore,...
well theres NO inflation in Europe wana know why??
ECB printing money isnt getting filtered down to people's pocket to actually SPEND!!!!, the only reason why inflation in europe seem to be a lethargic problem is because there isnt much domestic demand. which is understandable given the fact that Europe's economy isnt spending..... Europe is under a strong regime of austerity meaning the work to keep government balances in check where tax revenue meets government expenditure. so it means increasing taxes and lowering spending on infrastructure, with lower spending. demand falls. and when demand falls, when demand falls supply falls, and very often Supply of goods and services falls faster than demand thats why you see a lethargic inflation in prices, its not the "Good" type of inflaiton.... "demand push inflation, drives economies", but Europe is suffering from a "Cost Pull inflation" meaning europe is under a problem spiraling problem where cost is the main reason costs are draging the economy down.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #945,374
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:13pm Dec 19, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ?
I mean .. is it equity curve of usd/mex trades? (I think you mentioned it somewhere) ...cuz that pair appreciated 4 months in a row just like usd/rub but at a slower pace ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #945,375
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:14pm Dec 19, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting Goldflake
{quote} I live close to swiss..i know the situation here..yes.i agree..swiss is expensive but it is expensive since ages. Why US economy is growing although they have such huge national debt? the growing economy is just a gas in ballon. it is pure debt. it will burst for good. I see US interest rates to sky rocket in next 5-10 years..who knows 30-40-50-60-70-80-90-100-500-1000% or more..But this will happen for sure.
well..... you can put it this way. US is indeed a nation of pure debt.... but they have a reason to survive.... 60% of the world still uses the Dollar as medium of exchange....
soo this explosion of the us economy gets delayed for as long as the world demands US's economy... and the fact that US's still the leading nation in GDP.
but Europe is a black hole.... collapsing on itself like an implosion...... Japan imploded 30 years ago and it lead to their economy with no growth and thats where Europe is headed if they do not increase their spending... Forget about their government going in shit loads of debt like the americans are...
name of the game is to see who prints the most money to finance growth. thats the new norm of economy growth. Print money to grow. or die in an imploding economy like Japan did 30 years ago, and like Europe is about to if ECB doesnt do anything.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,376
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:16pm Dec 19, 2014 2:16pm
Most systems will work, but you must not be greedy, and you got to be disciplined... that's the hardest part to master.. so everyone looking for the holy grail must look within their selves.,

The media news... who cares about the news.. im not interested one bit. My news is the chart, the only news I need to worry about,
have a great weekend!
  • #945,377
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:16pm Dec 19, 2014 2:16pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Ok fair enough, here is what am i going to say. If USD interest rate gets to 3% i call market collapse. If FED raises rates that high i look forward to see SDR as reserve currency very soon and completly devaluation of current currency market. That within few years eg max 5 years, most possible 3 years max from now. All i look are signals in fundamental analysis. I was looking for SNB rate cut for months. Now that it has came, it gave me signal QE is coming for ECB. If FED raises rates to 3% or more like you say that is another signal to...
btw i wouldnt be surprised to see another economy collapse when the Fed rate gets to 3%. and the time line is perfect.... 10 years for every economic crisis.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,378
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:18pm Dec 19, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} I hope that whoever vouched you, as it says you are ''top 1% member'', are not as clueless as you sir, I don't think I can stop calling you a clown, even though I have done it many times before. It is not that I care about red thing next to one's name, but what concerns me is that new members, who come here for help, are relying on those who are ''supposed to know more'' than others. I wish that whoever is in charge of FF was to get rid of this distinction(medium-high impact member nonsense), it does no good at all.
no body vouched for me, i earned my place here, so i would like a bit of respect, you may say im talking nonsense but please keep it to yourself, or come up with your counter arguments as i am allowed to express my views.
meanwhile you have yet to prove how well you are trading.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #945,379
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:20pm Dec 19, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} well..... you can put it this way. US is indeed a nation of pure debt.... but they have a reason to survive.... 60% of the world still uses the Dollar as medium of exchange.... soo this explosion of the us economy gets delayed for as long as the world demands US's economy... and the fact that US's still the leading nation in GDP. but Europe is a black hole.... collapsing on itself like an implosion...... Japan imploded 30 years ago and it lead to their economy with no growth and thats where Europe is headed if they do not increase their...
yep..world still using dollar. But did you hear about BRICS?? They are already avoiding dollar. When the Us rates increase, the demand for dollar will be decreased. Then the scenario which I've talked about balloon bursting happens. That is the only reason, they kept low interest rates since last few years..They are fooling the public by showing fake recovery or growth.
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #945,380
  • Dec 19, 2014 2:22pm Dec 19, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} btw i wouldnt be surprised to see another economy collapse when the Fed rate gets to 3%. and the time line is perfect.... 10 years for every economic crisis.
When FED starts hiking there is going to be bloodsheed on markets. Current rubble crisis is not gona be anything to what happens when FED starts hiking.
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