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EUR/CHF

  • #13,401
  • Dec 12, 2014 2:56am Dec 12, 2014 2:56am
they can break it, ecb, many longs, ...
any idea where put sell under 1,2 ? snb must have positions from 1,19xx to 1,2000
  • #13,402
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:03am Dec 12, 2014 3:03am
Quoting Nud
they can break it, ecb, many longs, ... any idea where put sell under 1,2 ? snb must have positions from 1,19xx to 1,2000
it got to 1.95 before intervention last time it was broke, 1.99 should be a fine place
  • #13,403
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:18am Dec 12, 2014 3:18am
and here we go, another 2012 half year blockade
  • #13,404
  • Dec 12, 2014 3:48am Dec 12, 2014 3:48am
following yesterday's decision to maintain rates, fwd points curve for ec went down, was almost -10 pips in nov, now just -4pips (for 3month). that means that you get less of a premium by holding long fwd position (and MUCH more expensive for the ones that were already paying fo EC long). (pic1)

Vol droping to new lows since Sept 2014, just below 2.7% for 3m ATM, which in turn will make it hard to make money by selling options or covered options, might be an opportunity to long calls for few pips though. (pic 2)

I believe snb is delaying the decision to go to neg rates in order to have a strong argument for a fall in chf vs eur once ecb goes into qe. meanwhile, it looks like this cross will stay stuck near the floor, it stayed literally sucked there for 6 month in 2012 (pic 3), trading between 1.2001 and 1.2005 prior to a tally to 1.2600 amid speculation that snb might increase the floor, the rally was not prompted by a major rally in eurusd rate, but generally a higher eurusd tend to push ec higher (pic 4).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,405
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:27am Dec 12, 2014 5:27am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} Do you think like 2012 once spike in a month near to 1.2075 level for one day

those flash spikes in summer 2012 were not interventions from the SNB
  • #13,406
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:51am Dec 12, 2014 5:51am
Quoting insider-
{quote} those flash spikes in summer 2012 were not interventions from the SNB
do you expecting same spikes again
Trading by EA
  • #13,407
  • Dec 12, 2014 5:58am Dec 12, 2014 5:58am
Well, I think that probably 15-25 percent of all longs (for example trader that hold longs for the speculation of more volatility in gold referendum or negative interest rates) have closed their positions. Rollover is also very bad. As long as E/C stays very low now, more longs will close their positions I guess. But in the other hand it cleares the market a little bit, as the ratio was 60:1 long/short ratio on major broker. As strange as it sounds, but the longer it stays very low at 1,2010, the more surprising comes a spike up or any rumor and the reaction will be more extensiv as the gold referendum (as 2013 after few months of flat 1,2005 up to 1,26).
If everybody is long - who should buy? If half of the longs close their positions over time, theres room for another speculative spike when they enter the market again.
  • #13,408
  • Dec 12, 2014 6:05am Dec 12, 2014 6:05am
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EC dec positions.jpg Size: 163 KB
  • #13,409
  • Dec 12, 2014 6:34am Dec 12, 2014 6:34am
Quoting Nud
they can break it, ecb, many longs, ... any idea where put sell under 1,2 ? snb must have positions from 1,19xx to 1,2000
SNB positioned at the floor, if price can reach the floor either it will stay in flat line or bounce few pips just like old times.
5-10 pips will be your broker's manipulation because SNB guarding asian session.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #13,410
  • Dec 12, 2014 7:08am Dec 12, 2014 7:08am
intervention from SNB is already on
  • #13,411
  • Dec 12, 2014 7:14am Dec 12, 2014 7:14am
Quoting zoran22
intervention from SNB is already on
Who knows? Could be or probably bear players hesitating to challenge SNB due to sudden strong slap.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #13,412
  • Dec 12, 2014 9:19am Dec 12, 2014 9:19am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} do you expecting same spikes again
Is there one posting of your where you don't seek comforting answers to relief your desperation ?
  • #13,413
  • Dec 12, 2014 9:37am Dec 12, 2014 9:37am
Quoting Napoleon180
Well, I think that probably 15-25 percent of all longs (for example trader that hold longs for the speculation of more volatility in gold referendum or negative interest rates) ...If everybody is long - who should buy?...




everybody except fx, it's safe haven
when ecb will announce QE this level may be broken,
already set sell stop, no cost
  • #13,414
  • Dec 12, 2014 10:59am Dec 12, 2014 10:59am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} do you expecting same spikes again
i don't know really, it is pretty bad here, the only thing that could really lift this pair and change its trend is a good word about the economy from the ECB like what happened in Jan 2013. it was this line "Later in 2013 economic activity should gradually recover." that took the EC up 500 pips in few short days back then. i remember it as it was yesterday.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pres...130110.en.html
  • #13,415
  • Dec 14, 2014 9:06am Dec 14, 2014 9:06am
Don't worry guys..... There is only upwards for EURCHF. SNB has never failed us...
  • #13,416
  • Dec 14, 2014 9:43am Dec 14, 2014 9:43am
Quoting max888
Don't worry guys..... There is only upwards for EURCHF. SNB has never failed us...
why... SNB never surprised us also
  • #13,417
  • Dec 14, 2014 9:51am Dec 14, 2014 9:51am
Quoting Caa
following yesterday's decision to maintain rates, fwd points curve for ec went down, was almost -10 pips in nov, now just -4pips (for 3month). that means that you get less of a premium by holding long fwd position (and MUCH more expensive for the ones that were already paying fo EC long). (pic1) Vol droping to new lows since Sept 2014, just below 2.7% for 3m ATM, which in turn will make it hard to make money by selling options or covered options, might be an opportunity to long calls for few pips though. (pic 2) I believe snb is delaying the decision...
Just buy a 1y fwd at 27 pip below spot? 1.1990

Or maybe options space? Long 1y Risk reversal? payoff profile is attractive to me
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,418
  • Dec 14, 2014 11:57am Dec 14, 2014 11:57am
Quoting Aws1962
{quote} Just buy a 1y fwd at 27 pip below spot? 1.1990 Or maybe options space? Long 1y Risk reversal? payoff profile is attractive to me {image} {image}
whats your broker and source for this graphs, my broker has only 6 month fwd
  • #13,419
  • Dec 14, 2014 12:58pm Dec 14, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting zoran22
{quote} whats your broker and source for this graphs, my broker has only 6 month fwd
at such short tenors 6 month is just 0.5 of 1y fwd points as there is no curve in rates really...

the price source is bbg's composite feed
  • #13,420
  • Dec 14, 2014 4:41pm Dec 14, 2014 4:41pm
Just hit a new 52 week low
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