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EUR/CHF

  • #13,381
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:16am Dec 11, 2014 9:16am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} what do you think when will SNB intervention start
every time EURCHF aproaches 1.2, snb don't want tu push it higher, they want it to be stable.
  • #13,382
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:54am Dec 11, 2014 9:54am
Quoting joancb
{quote} every time EURCHF aproaches 1.2, snb don't want tu push it higher, they want it to be stable.
i dont think so then why they use such a stance like will be utmost determination with unlimited Selling CHF.

if they want to defend the floor for some pip at the stage of 1.2000 then they need much more effort .this is the best to send currency to high for some Hundred pips.
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  • #13,383
  • Dec 11, 2014 10:26am Dec 11, 2014 10:26am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} i dont think so then why they use such a stance like will be utmost determination with unlimited Selling CHF. if they want to defend the floor for some pip at the stage of 1.2000 then they need much more effort .this is the best to send currency to high for some Hundred pips.
they joking, there was no intervention since 2012
  • #13,384
  • Dec 11, 2014 11:57am Dec 11, 2014 11:57am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} i dont think so then why they use such a stance like will be utmost determination with unlimited Selling CHF. if they want to defend the floor for some pip at the stage of 1.2000 then they need much more effort .this is the best to send currency to high for some Hundred pips.
Few hundred pips? Intervention with billions of Euro for what effect? That large hedge funds come into play and short this thing down? SNB doesn't want to extend their balance if not necessary, so if its close to 1.20 there is very few who place a short their and nearly everybody who wants to buy has bought at those levels. They want to keep volatility down and as of now it works fine for them.
I don't expect E/C to go up above 1,2050 for lots of months. The debt crisis is not over...the Euro is weak. As long as these factors do not change, there will be no change in E/C.
  • #13,385
  • Dec 11, 2014 1:32pm Dec 11, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting Napoleon180
{quote} Few hundred pips? Intervention with billions of Euro for what effect? That large hedge funds come into play and short this thing down? SNB doesn't want to extend their balance if not necessary, so if its close to 1.20 there is very few who place a short their and nearly everybody who wants to buy has bought at those levels. They want to keep volatility down and as of now it works fine for them. I don't expect E/C to go up above 1,2050 for lots of months. The debt crisis is not over...the Euro is weak. As long as these factors do not change,...
agree, eurchf is dead, totally dead.
  • #13,386
  • Dec 11, 2014 1:39pm Dec 11, 2014 1:39pm
Don´t see why anyone should trade this pair! Low risk to go long at these levels but also very small reward. Everybody expecting a big spike that doesn´t come in a trade that is expensive to hold for some days. Most boring pair in forex history.
  • #13,387
  • Dec 11, 2014 2:49pm Dec 11, 2014 2:49pm
guys this is intervention form SNB, this is how it looks, like nothing is happening, everyone who was here 2012 during 1.201 levels know how this looks, it can stay here half of year not moving above 1.2015
  • #13,388
  • Dec 11, 2014 2:51pm Dec 11, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting zoran22
guys this is intervention form SNB, this is how it looks, like nothing is happening, everyone who was here 2012 during 1.201 levels know how this looks, it can stay here half of year not moving above 1.2015
Aye I still hold some position, from 2011.11, what an awful thing
  • #13,389
  • Dec 11, 2014 2:59pm Dec 11, 2014 2:59pm
Fresh long with stop few pips below 1.20

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,390
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:12pm Dec 11, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting Ken A
Fresh long with stop few pips below 1.20 {image}
Please give us some hope, what reason do you think this pair will show some volatility? Thanks

To be honest, I hold this pair for 3 years, never so desperate like today.
  • #13,391
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:17pm Dec 11, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting OberonZhao
{quote} Please give us some hope, what reason do you think this pair will show some volatility? Thanks To be honest, I hold this pair for 3 years, never so desperate like today.
No, I don't put all eggs in this - just small one to watch the movement .....

Pips wise for long term I am in long USDCHF ......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.png Size: 22 KB
  • #13,392
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:21pm Dec 11, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No, I don't put all eggs in this - just small one to watch the movement ..... Pips wise for long term I am in long USDCHF ...... {image}

Thank you , Ken
  • #13,393
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:55pm Dec 11, 2014 3:55pm
fxpro spread on EC almost 2 pips on ECN, normally 0.7
  • #13,394
  • Dec 11, 2014 3:59pm Dec 11, 2014 3:59pm
There are 3 things that will move this pair up again, a serious rumor, negative rates, and good words from ECB. a rumor, from the WSJ for example, would be good but will fade quickly, negative rates are probable after ECB's QE next year but of course they will take it back to the floor again, and then what? cut again? and again? i don't think so, and there is only one thing that would happen sooner or later (most probably later), a good word about the economy from Draghi which i doubt that might happen before the end of 2016. so ladies and gentlemen i think we are definitely screwed at this time, brokers are increasing margins, and swaps eating the accounts. Unfortunately game's over for now..
  • #13,395
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:09pm Dec 11, 2014 5:09pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No, I don't put all eggs in this - just small one to watch the movement ..... Pips wise for long term I am in long USDCHF ...... {image}
That can work as long the triangulation makes sense, and we don't know for how long it will. If the greenback gets stronger and SNB intervene due to a very weak Euro (note two ifs in one sentence) then UC has to pull back as well. Trading UC is, for now, trading EC modulated by EU. Sorry if I'm stating the obvious.
  • #13,396
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:18pm Dec 11, 2014 5:18pm
Quoting Paz
{quote} That can work as long the triangulation makes sense, and we don't know for how long it will. If the greenback gets stronger and SNB intervene due to a very weak Euro (note two ifs in one sentence) then UC has to pull back as well. Trading UC is, for now, trading EC modulated by EU. Sorry if I'm stating the obvious.
What I am trying to say is, SNB probably don't have to do anything due to the exchange rate of USDCHF from April 2014 to date already dropped over 1,000 pips enough to make SNB happy due to strong dollar ......

I think we are saying the same thing here;

EURUSD x USDCHF = EURCHF
EURCHF ÷ USDCHF = EURUSD
EURCHF ÷ EURUSD = USDCHF
  • #13,397
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:30pm Dec 11, 2014 6:30pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} What I am trying to say is, SNB probably don't have to do anything due to the exchange rate of USDCHF from April 2014 to date already dropped over 1,000 pips enough to make SNB happy due to strong dollar ...... I think we are saying the same thing here; EURUSD x USDCHF = EURCHF EURCHF ÷ USDCHF = EURUSD EURCHF ÷ EURUSD = USDCHF
Hypothesis: EU at 1.15 by Feb. due to QE / Grece 2 crisis / whatever.
Would SNB keep the floor ?
Or would drop it and seek instead substantial trade balance averaging the two major currencies ?

The stronger the dollar, the bigger the dilemma for SNB. It's not easy to be rich.
  • #13,398
  • Dec 11, 2014 9:43pm Dec 11, 2014 9:43pm
Quoting insider-
There are 3 things that will move this pair up again, a serious rumor, negative rates, and good words from ECB. a rumor, from the WSJ for example, would be good but will fade quickly, negative rates are probable after ECB's QE next year but of course they will take it back to the floor again, and then what? cut again? and again? i don't think so, and there is only one thing that would happen sooner or later (most probably later), a good word about the economy from Draghi which i doubt that might happen before the end of 2016. so ladies and gentlemen...
Do you think like 2012 once spike in a month near to 1.2075 level for one day
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  • #13,399
  • Dec 12, 2014 1:56am Dec 12, 2014 1:56am
Interview with Jordan...nothing new (what a surprise..), but if the SNB after all this rhetoric will suddenly change course their credibility will be gone for a long time and this is the last a CB and even more a Swiss Central Bank ever will risk.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/video...uns/vi-BBgEM07

BTW: Three mega-malls are in construction on the border of Switzerland to Germany and Austria. One existing mall is the most profitable of all mall is Germany. 10% of the swiss household budget for consumer goods are already spey abroad (In German http://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/ein-umd...18425410).Does this help the Swiss franc to go up in the short-term? No. But it demonstrates the big time overvaluation of the franc to the Euro. I did a lot of x-mss shopping cross the border and saved for same times between 25-55 %. The local retailers are already screaming...giving-up 1.20 will hurt no only the exporters, but also local retails big time.
  • #13,400
  • Dec 12, 2014 2:37am Dec 12, 2014 2:37am
One has to ask themselves at what point do the swiss cheese intervene?
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