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EURUSD

  • #942,821
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:42am Dec 11, 2014 5:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} no hurry now.. it retraced to 2458/59.. the question for me is "will 2485 hold, and if it does, will it go deeper then 2374 today? and will it close below 2280 tomorrow?" if it breaks 2486 then i will think of a new question.
So just listing all possibilities without stating position
  • #942,822
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:44am Dec 11, 2014 5:44am
Quoting mejo
{quote} Hi! Can you please explain where does this money than come from if not printing, what is this provisional bypass? thanks
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #942,823
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:45am Dec 11, 2014 5:45am
surely a drop today, hoping for good USD news at 1:30, Daily has touched with the 50 EMA and should start a phase 2 again any time soon..?
  • #942,824
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:47am Dec 11, 2014 5:47am
Quoting redmillion
{quote} So just listing all possibilities without stating position
they always fmu when they ask "paper or plastic"? i started asking for paper with a plastic liner. now i ftu
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #942,825
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:55am Dec 11, 2014 5:55am
Quoting JackStephens
surely a drop today, hoping for good USD news at 1:30, Daily has touched with the 50 EMA and should start a phase 2 again any time soon..?
I hope so but not counting on US data. Thanksgiving sales weren't as great as expected, from the headlines I recall. Possible that fall comes later in NY session (10a-12p) to reverse yesterday's gains in the same time period, or we see more action next week with FOMC. But of course I don't want to wait that long.
Enter Signature
  • #942,826
  • Dec 11, 2014 5:56am Dec 11, 2014 5:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yep.. posted a tandem chart a day or 2 ago.
got you, thanks for the clarification.
Fail better.
  • #942,827
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:11am Dec 11, 2014 6:11am
u.s. wholesale gasoline getting close to 1.48.2 min target. current low 1.63.16. sub 2$pg at the station getting closer.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #942,828
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:12am Dec 11, 2014 6:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well, it was inline with expectations. The average mean among analysts were between 120b to 180b. The LTROs are technically and legally not printing money but a provisional bypass to provide liquidity in the system. The ECB has been doing this before thiese new TLTRO since December 2011 when the first LTRO round (489b) and later 2012 (539b). Point being nothing new in terms of expectation as the number was inline. After the dovish and QE talk in the last ECB conference the only thing clear in terms of expectations is that there is no alternative...
it will never happen in the near future not even next year if it will..
  • #942,829
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:14am Dec 11, 2014 6:14am
Quoting mejo
{quote} Hi! Can you please explain where does this money than come from if not printing, what is this provisional bypass? thanks
I don't want to get too technical so i bore you to dead and its outside of the scope of this thread. Its not as easy to explain in a few lines but I try to put it in a couple of simple points:

  1. There are 2 important concepts in Monetary Policy: Money Supply and Money Base.

    1. Money Supply is calculated adding a variety of factors (M1, M2, M3, etc). Those Ms range from the more liquid (e.g cash) to the less liquid (e.g long term credits, etc). The total Money Supply includes all circulating money plus the deposits in commercial banks (not bank deposits).
    2. While the Monetary Base is the reserves of the commercial banks have in the CB plus the total currency circulating.

  1. The relation between these 2 concept is called Money Multiplier and define if the monetary policy is expansive or not.
  2. Therefore Central Banks can expand Monetary policy either by "Printing Money" outright via increasing Money Supply which means injected direct liquidity or they expand it via the Monetary Base which implies increasing the long-term loans to commercial banks.

THE ECB via the LTRO is only extending low interest loans to commercial banks which MEANS increasing only the MONETARY BASE via the banks. Technically this is not printing money (nor illegal according to the ECB mandate). However, in practice the ECB with TLRO is only bypassing actually printing outright money because as you can imagine giving loans to commercial banks, increase credit to the investment, therefore making (theoreticaly) that money available to the economy.

The main problem is/has been that the transmission of credit from commercial banks to the economy hasn't been enough or triggered a economic recovery forcing the ECB to consider actually pure QE (e.g buying bonds) like the FED or the BOE...

I hope it helps.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #942,830
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:14am Dec 11, 2014 6:14am
Quoting gatorinla
u.s. wholesale gasoline getting close to 1.48.2 min target. current low 1.63.16. sub 2$pg at the station getting closer.
what does it mean?
  • #942,831
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:16am Dec 11, 2014 6:16am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well, it was inline with expectations. The average mean among analysts were between 120b to 180b. The LTROs are technically and legally not printing money but a provisional bypass to provide liquidity in the system. The ECB has been doing this before thiese new TLTRO since December 2011 when the first LTRO round (489b) and later 2012 (539b). Point being nothing new in terms of expectation as the number was inline. After the dovish and QE talk in the last ECB conference the only thing clear in terms of expectations is that there is no alternative...

Good to have you back.
  • #942,832
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:31am Dec 11, 2014 6:31am
Quoting RomanBubenik
{quote} what does it mean?
cheaper to fill the tank. more money to buy other products. more products sold, puts more people to work. it works till cheap oil reduces the oil workers enough to make it negative. it dont happen in a day, it takes time
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #942,833
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:33am Dec 11, 2014 6:33am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} cheaper to fill the tank. more money to buy other products. more products sold, puts more people to work. it works till cheap oil reduces the oil workers enough to make it negative.
so what is your view for EUR/USD, will we get 1.25?
  • #942,834
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:40am Dec 11, 2014 6:40am
Quoting RomanBubenik
{quote} so what is your view for EUR/USD, will we get 1.25?
my view is posted. click my name and review. summarized, i sell bounces till closes tell me not to. 2480/2599 is/was a normal bounce before 2125
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #942,835
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:46am Dec 11, 2014 6:46am
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} What is the solution/alternative/backup for financial crisis? Communism or Socialism. Everyone on this earth knows Russia is well equipped for that. Most of the European countries also familiar to these alternatives. They have options to fall back. How about US? By the way, I am neither anti-US nor pro-communist. Just thinking loudly about type of wars will win in the future.
The US doesn't have the luxury (if you wanna call it that) to fall back into communism or socialism. They have war. Worked well so far. But when you spend more on defense then the next 20 countries combined, what would you expect?

I'm for neither side as well. Having personally participated in the GWOT, I'm not a big fan of war. Just or otherwise.
  • #942,836
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:49am Dec 11, 2014 6:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} my view is posted. click my name and review. summarized, i sell bounces till closes tell me not to. 2480/2599 is/was a normal bounce before 2125
It is good to see the review sir. But we have two important news on tomorrow for USD

1. PPI m/m - says that it may be negative
2. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - says it may be positive

whether these datas will be good for USD to come 1.2280
  • #942,837
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:50am Dec 11, 2014 6:50am
still waiting for the dip, im out above 2600... Lets c

TG is 2150

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #942,838
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:52am Dec 11, 2014 6:52am
Quoting PhAnTi'
still waiting for the dip, im out above 2600... Lets c TG is 2150 {image}

technically it is rly the perfect short setup with the lower high formed at 2495...
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #942,839
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:53am Dec 11, 2014 6:53am
Quoting cspip
Next up resistance could be 1.2467.....
Now it does it ........
  • #942,840
  • Dec 11, 2014 6:54am Dec 11, 2014 6:54am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} GC how you doing ,???????long time now,, 7777 is the number to aim for,,lol and yes 1 year still going , gb thread is empty everybodys moved or lost the cash, so hence here regards ..ps miss the tactful words that you use ,,lol ,,Billy
billy here also I am there since June 2011 and have seen new people come and go. losing and winning is part of the game. only thing is if you have the financial power to continue trading. for euro I had a target of 1.28 when it was at 1.238x after Nov ecb I guess but then I started accumulating longs and took some losses as well
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