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EUR/CHF

  • #13,261
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:19pm Nov 30, 2014 7:19pm
Since our positions are decidedbright now, wont expect much price change until EU market time another 7hrs from now.
So why not we get some sleep now for 7hrs...
  • #13,262
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:28pm Nov 30, 2014 7:28pm
I doubt 97% are long as well. If you have been trading EURCHF for the past 4 years you would have noticed it always retraced lower no matter what the SNB did besides the floor. I am waiting for a higher price to increase my short trade. I am one of the few that believe the 1.2000 floor will be breached.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #13,263
  • Dec 1, 2014 1:04am Dec 1, 2014 1:04am
...if I were SNB and ever wanted to cut rates to negative I had to wait the referendum for the folks to decide on my policy. Now theres a quite strong empowerment...lets see
  • #13,264
  • Dec 1, 2014 1:07am Dec 1, 2014 1:07am
Long Long Long NOW, typical gap fill despite was not necessary to fill it exactly like this(low)

Lower than this is nowhere but far at around 1.2015 while upper levels start from early 1.2040s to late 1.2040s, above 1.2050 takes it to 1.2070s
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #13,265
  • Dec 1, 2014 1:15am Dec 1, 2014 1:15am
Quoting J.Clinton
Long Long Long NOW, typical gap fill despite was not necessary to fill it exactly like this(low) Lower than this is nowhere but far at around 1.2015 while upper levels start from early 1.2040s to late 1.2040s, above 1.2050 takes it to 1.2070s
any chance of 1.2100
Trading by EA
  • #13,266
  • Dec 1, 2014 1:37am Dec 1, 2014 1:37am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} any chance of 1.2100
Seems have an order there, not knowing how to offload

EC can go very high, but without intervention the mentioned levels are the ones to play at(normal max. seen late 1.2070s), up 1.2080 can hit 1.2110s.

Long term speaking, EC needs to break up 1.2130s to really start changing the downtrend.

Briefly, play the bounces from these levels by exiting then entering lower again..... starting from the current low
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #13,267
  • Dec 1, 2014 1:59am Dec 1, 2014 1:59am
Yeah pipxster I am with you on that. Feel the likelyhood of neg. rates introduction is looming ever closer. Certainly yesterdays vote was a strong sign of confidence in the SNB and from here on I guess the SNB feel they have some additional manouvering/policy space! Interesting 11 days Ahead now...

Lets also hope the bigger investors quickly starts looking at it the same way, throwing in the towel on the CHF & adding to the longs before we`re back at 1.2010 yet again.
  • #13,268
  • Dec 1, 2014 7:00am Dec 1, 2014 7:00am
Stubborn sellers still moaning even swiss vote confirmed their trust on SNB.
Devaluing own currency is too easy to central bank but much difficult to overvalue.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #13,269
  • Dec 1, 2014 8:42am Dec 1, 2014 8:42am
Quoting Paz
I just had a preliminary reading about the Swiss poll, of which I learned today exactly. In my opinion it doesn't have much chances to go above 25% yes votes.
Yes votes 22%. Buts I didn't made a buck being right, not before and not after 30 Nov.
  • #13,270
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:12am Dec 1, 2014 9:12am
For the German speaking ones:

http://www.cash.ch/news/top_news/snb...en-3270654-771

Nothing really new, SNB will do interventions and other measures if necessary to defend floor.
  • #13,271
  • Dec 1, 2014 9:53am Dec 1, 2014 9:53am
Hi all,

I don't know much about the nature or characteristics of this particular pair, but I do have an important question if someone could please tell me...

Okay, I understand that the SNB set a floor price @ 1.20 but did they also set a ceiling or an upper price limit and if so, what is it so that I know the range?

Thank you for any insights
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #13,272
  • Dec 1, 2014 11:24am Dec 1, 2014 11:24am
Quoting moneyflow21
Hi all, I don't know much about the nature or characteristics of this particular pair, but I do have an important question if someone could please tell me... Okay, I understand that the SNB set a floor price @ 1.20 but did they also set a ceiling or an upper price limit and if so, what is it so that I know the range? Thank you for any insights
I am not aware of any ceiling, the SNB did not target a range, just a minimum exchange rate.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #13,273
  • Dec 1, 2014 3:57pm Dec 1, 2014 3:57pm
Well, at the beginning of the day said WTF, why this BS pair moving stupidly despite Swiss PPl voted big % of No for Gold BS

As hours advanced despite missed 2 opportunities to then fix my mind on EC BS movement and trade it like last week, very happy that the market continues its BS movement to add add and add $$$$$ to my equity

Keep it here EC bears idiots, you are helping us a lot without knowing, we are now more sure that no penetration of 1.20 whatsoever and sooner or later EC will spike up due to SNB action if intervention or negative rate on deposits, possibly in 10 days time

In the meantime, EC Bulls are Longing Longing and Longing, entering and exiting.......making crazy profits
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #13,274
  • Dec 1, 2014 4:20pm Dec 1, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting J.Clinton
Well, at the beginning of the day said WTF, why this BS pair moving stupidly despite Swiss PPl voted big % of No for Gold BS As hours advanced despite missed 2 opportunities to then fix my mind on EC BS movement and trade it like last week, very happy that the market continues its BS movement to add add and add $$$$$ to my equity Keep it here EC bears idiots, you are helping us a lot without knowing, we are now more sure that no penetration of 1.20 whatsoever and sooner or later EC will spike up due to SNB action...

Read your post & generally share most of your thoughts. Personally, I expect zero decision on the coming SNB meeting (nor on the following ones). Bear in mind their only mandate is to keep the 1.20000 floor, at the moment, this is done without any intervention from SNB. So why do more? If EC economy was turning the corner, etc, etc, why not, but not now.
Read recently, that actually SNB will use the Euros to purchase sovereign debt (Fr, It, D, etc). Yes, you put your money in use, help EC, but does not lower the CHF.
For me, EC will simply go up based on:
- EU will drop faster then the UC can go up, hence EC will benefit from this mechanism
- Who now wants to short EC 20pips above the floor, so a capitulation from shorts
the path will be slow & curvy, but I agree that the only direction is 1.205, then 1.207 to open the door for 1.210... this is already next year's program
  • #13,275
  • Dec 1, 2014 4:35pm Dec 1, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting J.Clinton
Well, at the beginning of the day said WTF, why this BS pair moving stupidly despite Swiss PPl voted big % of No for Gold BS As hours advanced despite missed 2 opportunities to then fix my mind on EC BS movement and trade it like last week, very happy that the market continues its BS movement to add add and add $$$$$ to my equity Keep it here EC bears idiots, you are helping us a lot without knowing, we are now more sure that no penetration of 1.20 whatsoever and sooner or later EC will spike up due to SNB action...
It seems that we need more energy to pick up the money from the floor, then to profit from post referendum scalping E/C. which is actually much better then huge spike. It is crazy but it start to be boring, to collect this easy money Best wishes to all EC bulls! ps. J.Clinton I found your posts very useful and valuable.
  • #13,276
  • Dec 2, 2014 3:39am Dec 2, 2014 3:39am
It looks like some big players entering positions prior next thursday SNB meeting...
  • #13,277
  • Dec 2, 2014 3:51am Dec 2, 2014 3:51am
Quoting PhilouFX
{quote} Read your post & generally share most of your thoughts. Personally, I expect zero decision on the coming SNB meeting (nor on the following ones). Bear in mind their only mandate is to keep the 1.20000 floor, at the moment, this is done without any intervention from SNB. So why do more? If EC economy was turning the corner, etc, etc, why not, but not now. Read recently, that actually SNB will use the Euros to purchase sovereign debt (Fr, It, D, etc). Yes, you put your money in use, help EC, but does not lower the CHF. For me, EC will simply...
I strongly believe that the SNB has sold chf in the last 2 weeks.

new high for ec 1.2045
  • #13,278
  • Dec 2, 2014 3:51am Dec 2, 2014 3:51am
Quoting dimitri
It looks like some big players entering positions prior next thursday SNB meeting...
If big players then must have to be bull. They cannot fight against SNB.
If big players, movement has to be steady up without 4-5 pips pullback in dead volatility.

So they are not big players. Just some sellers giving up their dream to break SNB floor.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #13,279
  • Dec 2, 2014 4:16am Dec 2, 2014 4:16am
Quoting Caa
{quote} I strongly believe that the SNB has sold chf in the last 2 weeks. new high for ec 1.2045
Ya... I hear/read this regularly... but every other month the SNB publishes its Foreign currency reserve. So, if I see it unchanged, to me it means no additional purchase! More over, they have to keep all rounds if we get to 1.20003 (or so ).. if they start shooting at 1.201x, 1.202x, etc... it will get weaker by the time, they really need to keep their ground. AMHO
  • #13,280
  • Dec 2, 2014 4:42am Dec 2, 2014 4:42am
Quoting PhilouFX
{quote} Ya... I hear/read this regularly... but every other month the SNB publishes its Foreign currency reserve. So, if I see it unchanged, to me it means no additional purchase! More over, they have to keep all rounds if we get to 1.20003 (or so ).. if they start shooting at 1.201x, 1.202x, etc... it will get weaker by the time, they really need to keep their ground. AMHO
we will know for sure next time snb publishes fx reserves. I don't think they step in above 1.2010 but probably starts acting approx. 1.2008
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