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EUR/CHF

  • #13,201
  • Nov 30, 2014 6:20am Nov 30, 2014 6:20am
from the above mentioned blog to just keep in mind:
...If USD/JPY is still well bid and a no vote knocks CHF/JPY down 300-500+ pips then that might be a good opportunity to buy a decent dip in a yen pair...
  • #13,202
  • Nov 30, 2014 6:26am Nov 30, 2014 6:26am
Clear no to the Gold Initiative.
Big question remains how much the EUR/CHF will react and how to ride it out.
100 pips would be fine for me to close half of my super-heavy long position, and then decide what to do with the rest.
  • #13,203
  • Nov 30, 2014 6:29am Nov 30, 2014 6:29am
I'm surprised so many of you think there is going to be a large move up in the price of EUR/CHF.

I don't think anyone was expecting the gold initiative to be passed. I expect little movement, if any.

In my view the downward pressure on the EUR/CHF has very little to do with gold vote, and is much more about a weak euro.

Until that changes I see it pressing 1.2 for a while to come.
  • #13,204
  • Nov 30, 2014 6:46am Nov 30, 2014 6:46am
There could have been a black swan event. No-one was expecting Lehman Brothers either. For the SNB president it was serious enough to have more interviews on this single matter than during the whole last year. As a Swiss guy, I can tell that the outcome of the polls is sometimes unpredictable.
At least a floor breach is not in the cards today, and from a risk/reward perspective, going long on Friday for a relief rally on Monday was a sensible trade. At least one with very low odds of losing. And that's the essence of trading.
  • #13,205
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:00am Nov 30, 2014 7:00am
Well, I think the "No" - Outcome was expected, at least after the latest poll and is already priced in.
It could spike (if so) up to 1,2032-50 maximum for a few hours I think, but I expect that it will stay below 1,2030 for a long time.
And this for 3 main reasons...

1st: Nearly all are already long in EC, so who how should it go to 1,21 and stay there, who should buy and buy... I knwo one big broker on which it's already a 60:1 long/short ratio.
2nd: SNB tries to keep volatility down (selling options), we see it within the last weeks...very tight ranges.
3rd: Euro is very weak and I think that the euro will go much further down and creates pressure on EC for a long time.
  • #13,206
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:02am Nov 30, 2014 7:02am
Really this is the best site to follow the results - even for non german- readers. Every couple of minutes new updates. As now, a clear NO.
http://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/sto...bruch-28753041
  • #13,207
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:02am Nov 30, 2014 7:02am
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/multimed...er-30/41134608
  • #13,208
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:09am Nov 30, 2014 7:09am
Quoting maokun
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/multimed...er-30/41134608
Canton Schaffhausen looks like the little village where Asterix & Obelix used to live resisting roman occupation
  • #13,209
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:35am Nov 30, 2014 7:35am
Quoting JamesCaan
Only 19.8% say YES to gold initiative in Zurich. In Canton of Aargau, 74% say NO. So this has absolutely no chance to pass!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...ions-show.html


Dear James

when will com official announcement and please tell me are you sure NO vote

please provide source?????



Trading by EA
  • #13,210
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:50am Nov 30, 2014 7:50am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...ions-show.html Dear James when will com official announcement and please tell me are you sure NO vote please provide source?????
Nothing official until a few more hours
  • #13,211
  • Nov 30, 2014 7:54am Nov 30, 2014 7:54am
Swiss PPL in the mood of NO today All 3 Voting Requests from Taxation to Ecopop to Gold.....badly failed in getting both voters and cantons majority, ZERO number says it all

Few Voting still counting but whatever outcome no way to pass majority(not even a single canton!!!) and the average expected % would be 75% NO 25% Yes that I believe must have a sounding impact on the markets, since this very poor result for the idiots in the yes campaign was not expected at all!!!

At least EC 1.21 would be Great, the more the better However, hopefully it stays there for some minutes as spikes up/down may hurt profit taking in brokers slippage

EC price can be known before market open by 2 hours, so EC Bulls can prepare their plans accordingly
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #13,212
  • Nov 30, 2014 8:58am Nov 30, 2014 8:58am
saxobank opens 6 GMT today, 4 hours before others
  • #13,213
  • Nov 30, 2014 9:04am Nov 30, 2014 9:04am
Quoting J.Clinton
Swiss PPL in the mood of NO today All 3 Voting Requests from Taxation to Ecopop to Gold.....badly failed in getting both voters and cantons majority, ZERO number says it all Few Voting still counting but whatever outcome no way to pass majority(not even a single canton!!!) and the average expected % would be 75% NO 25% Yes that I believe must have a sounding impact on the markets, since this very poor result for the idiots in the yes campaign was not expected at all!!! At least EC 1.21 would be Great, the more the better However,...

but some peoples on forum thinks that the price will not move much they are saying price is already priced in.i am confuse can you please put a light on it in details?

Regards


Muhammad Mudasir
Trading by EA
  • #13,214
  • Nov 30, 2014 9:51am Nov 30, 2014 9:51am
Quoting zoran22
saxobank opens 6 GMT today, 4 hours before others
any notification from Saxo bank? about to open early
Trading by EA
  • #13,215
  • Nov 30, 2014 9:51am Nov 30, 2014 9:51am
Not expecting EURCHF will spike very far probably USDCHF will give more pips.
  • #13,216
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:21am Nov 30, 2014 10:21am
Looks like Swiss are voting no........ from early projections

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...ions-show.html
  • #13,217
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:23am Nov 30, 2014 10:23am
Lol, oh that's a real news @max888

It's already done, NO for all three initiatives...
  • #13,218
  • Nov 30, 2014 10:24am Nov 30, 2014 10:24am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} any notification from Saxo bank? about to open early
they are opened in cca 2 hours now price steady
  • #13,219
  • Nov 30, 2014 12:07pm Nov 30, 2014 12:07pm
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  • #13,220
  • Nov 30, 2014 12:08pm Nov 30, 2014 12:08pm
1.2035
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