EUR/CHF

The YES alone is not enough
If the cantons don't agree, the YES means nothing

I've no idea on the cantons' agreement or timeframe to agree in the swiss referendum system....
Anyway I think it is difficult to get a YES seeing the cantons must agree and even if the cantons agree, it will take some time for the effect to be seen, so EC will remain low near 1.20 for a long time.

That's what I'm "fearing"
A remake of 2012 but with negative swap this time

I think, Eur/CHF will move sideways until the gold referendum. The reason is simple... there are traders thinking SNB will intervene, there are traders thinking it won't.

I dont think SNB will intervene. If you have traded USD/JPY during 2009-10 (when it was at 90), Japanese tried to weaken and everytime UJ went up, it was pulled back. So I dont think SNB will intervene for now, because it's effective to intervene after the referendum. For now iit's the traders who will keep Eur/CHF moving sideways within 10-15 pips. Draw SR lines and trade if you really want to trade for now. But I have closed my longs in the spike and now staying in the sidelines. However I am long on Gold....up 20 pips alreaady.

I decided to wait for the referendum and trade my charts.

From whatIi understand "vote of the cantons" simply means requiring a majority at district level beside an absolute majority.
Art 142 (3) The result of a popular vote in a Canton determines the vote of that Canton

That is, the outcome of referendums requiring "cantons vote" is immediately known.

Clearly that makes so that the smaller the popular winning vote margin, the greater the possibility that at cantonal level majority is not achieved. That happened in March '13, with a referendum getting 54% overall majority vote but only 10 vs 13 majority at cantonal level.

that would be sort of game changer
I always thought it's a separate vote, because of the expectation of a NO by cantons was due to the cantons receiving dividends from the SNB
And so they most probaly wouldn't agree

Quoting Paz
{quote} My spread is 0.8 pips average and the swap like 45 cents per lot.
What shxt broker do I have!!!

See, I buy 0.1 lot 16th Oct at 1.2065, and I paid almost 36usd swaps already..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Wow, indeed. I have -2.65 CHF for .1 lot for the same period...

Plus see attachment...

The swiss citizens voted three times about introducing the Daylight Saving Time system. Three times "No". Right now the time is 8.24 pm. just as in Germany or in Italy...

It would be the same time even if Switzerland had no DST. Because DST happens in summer.

I get variable negative swap from 75 cents to over 100 cents on the long side per one standard lot. My base ccy is USD.

Some historical data about overall and cantonal vote discordance

Draft ballots that failed despite popular majority

1. 1866. Obl. Referendum on Weights and Measures: 50.4% yes, but cantons 9.5: 12.5
2. 1955: Initiative "Tenant and Consumer Protection": 50.2% yes, but cantons 7:15
3. 1970: Obl. Referendum on the Financial Regulation: 55.4% yes, but cantons 9:13
4. 1973: Obl. Referendum on education: 52.8% yes, but cantons 10.5: 11.5
5. 1975: Obl. Referendum on economic products: 52.8% yes, but cantons 11:11
6. 1983: Obl. Referendum on energy products: 50.9% yes, but cantons 11:12
7. 1994: Obl. Referendum on the culture products: 51.0% yes, but cantons 11:12
8. 1994: Obl. Referendum facilitated naturalization: 52.8% yes, but cantons 10:13
9. 2013: Obl. Referendum on the Family Product: 54.3% yes, but cantons 10:13

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/St%C3%A4ndemehr

Hi Paz, do you mean the cantons have right to veto? In what condition the initiative can be passed? Thank you!

Read:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post7875108

Hey Dudes,

First of, you all forgot that many news are fabricated, never existed in real!
How many times we read that President Obama said this and that to discover from the White House Spokesman that it's all fake news!! Same in many economical, Social, Celebrities news!!
After social media had crashed ppl privacy long years ago, it is all subject to manipulated news for a reason or another.
I bet that if only 3 individuals created a nice news, very close to be real and threw it in social media(twitter, facebook......) attaching the source to lets say CNBC Bloomberg or Reuters when any of those never posted anything similar, can you imagine how many millions of ppl will receive and believe this news in few minutes!!!!, even if the 3 individuals decided later on to announce that it's all fake and they created it, most of the millions will say that they are lying
We are living nowadays in a world full of rumors, want to hurt a person, group, company, just throw a bad rumor in social media and it will run faster than a virus!!! PPl like to read and believe trash, give them what they want and we take advantage...this is how the bad as.s.s thinks to make quick money
Related to Swiss Gold BS, who said that all its news is true?
The latest polls from credible source showed 47% against Gold referendum, 38% with and 15% undecided.
After Scotland Independence and now Swiss Gold Referendum, asking myself why are these countries named first nations!!!! It's ppl are ruled and manipulated easily just as the named third and poor nations!!!
WTF do Swiss Citizens(at least half!!) know about economics, what good and what's not for Switzerland!!!
Even the "save our gold" BS party is divided between who's with and who's against Gold referendum, then who are the 38% !!!!!
Swiss Citizens are now played with their minds in the name of Nationality just as any poor country Dictator does to its ppl.
Hey ppl, our country is in danger, invaded economically by the US and Europe, lets save it with a yes vote!!!
What will you expect from 50% of a country's ppl who does not believe even in its European location, sees itself as a big influence country(as if US Russia or China), wants independence from Europe and its currency.
Just to remind everyone here that most Swiss ppl are against SNB 1.20 floor and do not want their destiny be attached to the Euro.
Such ppl need a dictator, tell them this is what is good for you, full stop.
It's not about EC trading and floor but about logic. Save what F***!!? Must firstly Gold value be here?!! It must be $500 at best and it will go back there.
Before Scottish independence vote, I said it will not matter, market will stabilize after short period. Many thought No will make GBP spike up, others for spike down, disaster to the currency. What happened??? it was already priced in before votes counting ended
And had been falling from that time despite No Vote, GU was gonna be on current price with No or Yes but it went slower downward with No.

What the US and Fed wants will happen Do I need to remind anyone where's the ruble value now

Gold is no money then Gold will never be money= no real value

Swiss ppl forgot that their vote is just used for politicians favor, it can not be cashed anywhere.

If yes wins, Swiss Party who started it will exchange it for something personal in Cantons voting time

There is no "Cantons voting time". Read my post #12,965 above.

Additional reminder that it is all about SNB decision and intention toward the EC floor. If they want to defend it, even if the cantons vote for it at end and it needs 5 years to become reality, they will defend it
Do you know ppl that SNB can defend the 1.20 for 10 years??? Maybe you all forgot that foreign currencies reserve holdings are increasing on monthly basis by the SNB

Anyway, I believe most of us EC Bulls are not that greedy of 1.30 and intervention if no decision will ever come for that but at worst some spikes like at past to 1.2050 and 1.21, briefly some movement very enough for us to cash in heavily as lots are madly in the sky, any movement = massive profits

By the way, the 500 million nonsense at 1.2016 is just a fake news, there was no reaction whatsoever, my super heavy lots have more influence

Ok, then they already exchanged it in advance in case.........

The thing is that foreign currency reserves increase in doing so.

you seem to be a smart guy
any thoughts where the sharp 50+ pips move eurusd came from late friday when eurchf was under extreme presure?