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EUR/CHF

some traders need a change of underwear here
Deutsche Bank note just out re Swiss refendum likelihood of a yes vote is considerable current polling shows the yes’ campaign with a narrow but clear lead
Trading by EA
Quoting mmudasir
Deutsche Bank note just out re Swiss refendum likelihood of a yes vote is considerable current polling shows the yes’ campaign with a narrow but clear lead
Link?
Calm down dudes. Nothing bad will happen other than if bad brokers hunt your stop losses or tight margin.

Nearly full in margin, ofcourse below 1.20 drawdown considered but betting on 1.2010 as technical support rather than the rumor of Singapore office.....

Longing 1.2012 or 1.2015 does not matter. It's the moment of truth now

Not going into politics but just to describe with an example: I hope we don't discover that SNB turns to be like Gaddafi in Libya who warned and warned of crashing his ppl and when the moment of truth came, there was nobody defending other than his sons and some personal security and bodyguards who barely defended his castle for short period then collapsed.....
Not to forget Sadam in Iraq, where had the known strong Iraq army disappear

Conclusion from this: It all turned to be an illusion, no real power nothing!! Hopefully, SNB this time does like past intervention not just barking, living us in a delusional drama where we EC Bulls are the only ones defending the 1.20and helping SNB!!!!

However, can't understand how CB's think childishly , why put themselves in this drama when they could had made some spikes from time to time as warning, EC bears could had ran away like rats.

It's illogical that SNB wait for the approach of 1.20 to intervene or make some spike!!, 1.2011 got just 10 pip spike!!!!!
This a hugely traded market, not a game of AT the exact price to act!!!, defend it higher, even if they are very arrogant that can defend 1.20 with utmost determination

I just hope that 1.2010 holds through the weekend because central banks(not speculators-hedge funds) can control market price before market open on Sunday, so we may see a massive spike by then
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
Quoting mmudasir
Deutsche Bank note just out re Swiss refendum likelihood of a yes vote is considerable current polling shows the yes’ campaign with a narrow but clear lead
Deutsche garbageThe same who said SNB will intervene at last SNB meeting when EC was at 1.21, nothing happened it dropped........

Strange that these counter rumors come out now when we must read or hear the opposite like SNB intervention.......from some twitter account than stupid websites and banks

Don't worry if EC spikes they'll create a reason for it to make themselves heroes, just as they had done many times from 1.2070 to 1.2110 and so on when they knew nothing but S**t!!!!!
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
Quoting JamesCaan
{quote} Link?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...iss-gold-refer
Yay! Pips for everyone!
Even if SNB have unlimited bids at 1.201 - 1.200 then that doesn't mean there will be a spike. As price goes above their bids then why would it go higher. Price could just linger here now. From a technical perspective if 1.201 is support then the most obvious play here is to sell any rises and tp at 1.201 or just above. I don't think a spike is coming. I don't see a buy here.
back to the good old days of 2012 - maybe for months. and yes there were spikes back then as well. and fall back and once not fall back. the good range trading of 2013 came.

I think after the (in)famous referendum negative rates could be in the cards.
what i understand from the 1.20 floor is that the snb bid to 1.20 meaning that if market is at 1.2005, snb is still not in the market (so below 1.2001 anybody that wants to sell this pair will find the best bid with snb at no less than 1.2000). this is usually how central banks with a peg or floor acts. this is not an unexpected intervention in which they burn all the short position. so unless they decide to change the floor or threaten to change the floor, it will only be the market that will be able to shift this pair above current level. but obviously you have macro's in the market challenging the snb and ec long retail on their nerves ready to close ultra leveraged positions.
i personally do not think that the floor will get crushed even with a yes vote on the gold referendum, jordan's word were that it's going to be hard to defend the ec floor.. but then, what could we expect? if he said that it would be easy, he would be handing the victory to the yes vote. macro's will push he pair as low as they can, kicking out as many retail as possible, then in due time, long this pair to above 1.25 or 1.30, whatever is the appropriate value.
if we go back 3 years ago, why did the snb decide to cap chf against the euro? well because it was way overvalued and acting as safe heaven, hurting domestic economy. its almost the same around 1.2000, so there is no justifiable reason to remove the floor.
i wish that snb went in the market for quotes, but apparently it is not in their policy since anyway, they are "not in the business of fine tuning" (no minor modification to the floor), and if they change this, they would lose credibility similarly to removing the floor.
Quoting pipxster
back to the good old days of 2012 - maybe for months. and yes there were spikes back then as well. and fall back and once not fall back. the good range trading of 2013 came. I think after the (in)famous referendum negative rates could be in the cards.
that solves part of the problem, by giving value to long ec positions
Quoting pipxster
back to the good old days of 2012 - maybe for months. and yes there were spikes back then as well. and fall back and once not fall back. the good range trading of 2013 came. I think after the (in)famous referendum negative rates could be in the cards.
Price hung around at 1.2 for a long time back then. The spikes came a long time after. I think once the SNB start defending their floor then they may start to consider alternative measures like negative rates. But the last time we discussed negative rates it seemed like there was a belief that this was not a good option because it would encourage people to take their money out of swiss banks and go elsewhere. I said then that you can't devalue a currency without encouraging people to take their money elsewhere.
There is really a thing to push ec lower than 1.20, calculated of course...some hedge funds are pushing it low, they are covered and hedged with options or other instruments and they are sure to gain from the spike ...chf cannot be a so safe haven...i mean not now , after the security implementation that the euro area has fixed.
Htf is the instruments to push it lower, get in get out , like a file on the iron

so i believe that next week it will be the time for snb to defend the floor ,,,,
Quoting tarrini65
There is really a thing to push ec lower than 1.20, calculated of course...some hedge funds are pushing it low, they are covered and hedged with options or other instruments and they are sure to gain from the spike ...chf cannot be a so safe haven...i mean not now , after the security implementation that the euro area has fixed. Htf is the instruments to push it lower, get in get out , like a file on the iron so i believe that next week it will be the time for snb to defend the floor ,,,,
This is The EUR/CHF Pilgrimage Temple.

We gather here to repeat our positive pnl matra.
Anyone who says 1.2000 will be broken shall be condemned as per the universe's Holy Will!
SNB says Swiss gold vote will hurt efforts to cap franc -paper


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0T50BG20141115


what do you think is positive for EC bull
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SNB did buy 500 million EURs on Friday at a price of 1.2016 ...

http://www.handelszeitung.ch/konjunk...franken-698472
Quoting tomplank
SNB did buy 500 million EURs on Friday at a price of 1.2016 ... http://www.handelszeitung.ch/konjunk...franken-698472
Here is what I don't understand about SNB's action again.

Either don't do anything or do it with 100% confidence to halt the price from dropping below bid level.

What's the intention of a 500M bid if the action fails to stabilise and indeed EC dropped to below 1.2010?

SNB is just a strange animal.

Again, those betting their entire wealth on SNB, be careful!
Quoting tomplank
SNB did buy 500 million EURs on Friday at a price of 1.2016 ... http://www.handelszeitung.ch/konjunk...franken-698472
That wasnt even a drop in the ocean..It did absolutely nothing.I hope they have anything better in the cards than this...

The pair looks really heavy,i am very confident it will hit the floor soon.
When you buy this pair,which i did over a year ago(keeping one huge trade opened at 1.23-something,and several minor lately)it feels so easy to rely on the SNB floor.But when we are finally touching it,nothing seems certain,everything is up in the air,and its just dreadful.
SNB head says no sovereign fund for gold if referendum passes: Report
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...campaign=cppst
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In case the referendum comes out YES, does anyone know when the swiss cantons have to vote?
Are we talking about days, weeks, months until that happens?
  • #12,960
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:02am Nov 16, 2014 9:51am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting iwjw
In case the referendum comes out YES, does anyone know when the swiss cantons have to vote? Are we talking about days, weeks, months until that happens?
If a YES comes thru, the govt will have 3 years to make it into law, and SNB will have 5 years to get their gold reserve up to 20%.

Of course immediately there will be knee-jerk reactions testing the floor, but I believe SNB will ensure it's intact as SNB will have a long time to go before the law is in place.

If a YES comes thru, we can add to our longs even lower to the floor and if NO, EC will shoot up and we can trail-stop-take-profit.
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