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EUR/CHF

  • #12,781
  • Nov 11, 2014 2:29pm Nov 11, 2014 2:29pm
Sorry I felt cheerfull for a bit
  • #12,782
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:17pm Nov 11, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting OberonZhao
{quote} Excuse me, you mean that SNB intend to do nothing? or they are just waiting a chance like the Sep 2012? Thank you.
They didn't do anything since the pop from the floor. So anything possible but personally I'd prefer your 2nd option.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #12,783
  • Edited 9:47pm Nov 11, 2014 9:25pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting Paz
{quote} Forexings is simplifying or confusing things. Deflation is not the same as an overvalued currency, although the two things can happen at the same time. SNB may have to fight deflation although that doesn't happen to be urgent. It was much more urgent for Japan with their huge public debt, something that is not happening in Switzerland. Anyway, if if they have to do that, it is done over a long period of time, with stimulus measures that are also political not just economical. On the other hand, an overvalued currency is much more easily...
Overvalued currency isn't main problem for core inflation but surely a big problem for overall inflation. If you want to know why then I have to waste my time to describe blah blah reasons. One thing I'm reminding you that EU is the largest trading partner of Switzerland. So guess why E/C exchange rate is important for inflation figure.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #12,784
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:40am Nov 12, 2014 1:40am
How hard to go up and easy to go down...
  • #12,785
  • Nov 12, 2014 1:46am Nov 12, 2014 1:46am
Quoting forexings
{quote} Overvalued currency isn't main problem for core inflation but surely a big problem for overall inflation. If you want to know why then I have to waste my time to describe blah blah reasons. One thing I'm reminding you that EU is the largest trading partner of Switzerland. So guess why E/C exchange rate is important for inflation figure.
Certainly I don't want anybody to waste their time explaining inflation in a deflationary scenario... good luck!
  • #12,786
  • Edited 2:08am Nov 12, 2014 1:51am | Edited 2:08am
Quoting insider-
How hard to go up and easy to go down...
It has been like that for weeks. Unless the trigger conditions for intervention are met it likely to stay and make hard to recoup losses from earlier long positions. That's why I really hope some big guy gets curious to see what happens if he pushes things way down.
  • #12,787
  • Nov 12, 2014 2:41am Nov 12, 2014 2:41am
Quoting Paz
{quote} Certainly I don't want anybody to waste their time explaining inflation in a deflationary scenario... good luck!
Why so stubborn dude? Fighting against deflation is to gear up inflation.
I cannot say "deflation target" since all CB wants inflation to boost exports.

I have never seen any CB provide deflation report (Bank of England Inflation Report Press Conference)
Just understand negative data against previous data or inflation target is deflation.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #12,788
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:38am Nov 12, 2014 4:38am
Quoting Paz
{quote} It has been like that for weeks. Unless the trigger conditions for intervention are met it likely to stay and make hard to recoup losses from earlier long positions. That's why I really hope some big guy gets curious to see what happens if he pushes things way down.
Your wish might come true
  • #12,789
  • Nov 12, 2014 4:57am Nov 12, 2014 4:57am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...ity-check.html

guess Morgan Stanley is long
  • #12,790
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:33am Nov 12, 2014 5:33am
i dare eurchf to drop to 1.2010 and pick up my 25lots buylimit order at 1.2015, sl 1.1985(30pips), tp 1.2200(185pips)

downside:
1- ec may crawl btw 1.2000 and 1.2015 for months just like it did for most part of 2012, daily negative swaps will accumulate to a whole lot
2- if and when the firework starts, ec might breach 1.2000 floor and due to spikes market will not execute my sl at 1.1985
3- in which ever case between 1 and 2, i may lose more than $7500
  • #12,791
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:45am Nov 12, 2014 5:45am
Quoting mamalujo
i dare eurchf to drop to 1.2010 and pick up my 25lots buylimit order at 1.2015, sl 1.1985(30pips), tp 1.2200(185pips) downside: 1- ec may crawl btw 1.2000 and 1.2015 for months just like it did for most part of 2012, daily negative swaps will accumulate to a whole lot 2- if and when the firework starts, ec might breach 1.2000 floor and due to spikes market will not execute my sl at 1.1985 3- in which ever case between 1 and 2, i may lose more than $7500

i am already in with my full capacity and EC is going down what the Fu8k .come SNB and save euro Seller .i am also dare Bro
Trading by EA
  • #12,792
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:51am Nov 12, 2014 5:51am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} i am already in with my full capacity and EC is going down what the Fu8k .come SNB and save euro Seller .i am also dare Bro
what was your entry price and size if i may ask/
  • #12,793
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:53am Nov 12, 2014 5:53am
Quoting mamalujo
{quote} what was your entry price and size if i may ask/
1.2027 20 lots
Trading by EA
  • #12,794
  • Nov 12, 2014 5:54am Nov 12, 2014 5:54am
Quoting mamalujo
{quote} what was your entry price and size if i may ask/


strange who is selling EURCHF on this level
Trading by EA
  • #12,795
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:16am Nov 12, 2014 6:16am
Just as an info for the non-german speakers...Jordan has given today a new interview to Switzerlands largest (free) daily paper.


His answers on the question if giving-up the cap is an Option: No, not for a foreseeable future.

Das heisst, eine Abkehr vom Mindestkurs ist nicht geplant?
Nein, nicht auf absehbare Zeit.

The rest is the usual on the gold-initiative. Google translate will do if you are interested

http://www.20min.ch/finance/news/sto...hler--11073861

On a side-note: He was doing a live interview in the most viewed Swiss news show beginning of the week as well, as several interviews in othe rappers last week stating the same: The Gold-Initiative will be a disaster - and keeping the cap is of utmost importance for the economy.
  • #12,796
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:23am Nov 12, 2014 6:23am
As a personal note living in Zurich (for 20 years now): the media and politicians are fighting harder than ever to educate the electorate on the negative effects of the gold initiative. It will have a solid yes from the rather right-wing, rural and economically not so well-off (what is very relative in Switzerland), but in my option that will not be enough, because now the majority is mobilized and will be even more in the next week. And even in the unlikely case that the initiative will win, I doubt very much it will make it through all other steps in the next 5 years. BTW: i do all shopping for big items in Germany. Like many other I know and more and more. No matter what the statistics say: The franc is hugely overvalued. Same stuff 50 miles north from here costs 30-50% less. And this is across all product lines and services.
  • #12,797
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:24am Nov 12, 2014 6:24am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} 1.2027 20 lots
well its all about money management and what you can afford to lose on this trade. for a 20 lot trade, i believe you have more than $20k account balance(100pips drawdown) OR your account is funded such that you would still have some money left should price hit your sl , wherever that is OR you dont mind risking your entire account on this one historic trade.
  • #12,798
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:37am Nov 12, 2014 6:37am
The trend is clear: continuing at this rate 1.20 will be reached in about 8 hours, about 22:00 GMT.

That would mean an intervention in the last hours of NY trading. SNB may have alerted the banks they deal with, and the guys in Singapore may need to go to the office very early tomorrow.
  • #12,799
  • Nov 12, 2014 6:37am Nov 12, 2014 6:37am
Quoting mamalujo
{quote} well its all about money management and what you can afford to lose on this trade. for a 20 lot trade, i believe you have more than $20k account balance(100pips drawdown) OR your account is funded such that you would still have some money left should price hit your sl , wherever that is OR you dont mind risking your entire account on this one historic trade.
OMG risking all account and now i am affraid
Trading by EA
  • #12,800
  • Nov 12, 2014 7:01am Nov 12, 2014 7:01am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} OMG risking all account and now i am affraid
well its just about 10pips drawdown at 1.2017, i guess u expected zero drawdown on your entry. u should always leave room for your trades to breath. lets see how it goes though, its trying to climb though, i suggest u reduce your position once you're breakeven
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