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EUR/CHF

  • #12,761
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:25am Nov 11, 2014 8:25am
Quoting forexings
{quote} I dunno afghan language. sorry That's "buyers will be stopped out" once we drill the floor. Those amount of money have to inject by SNB to defend CHF buyers before putting extra money.
Again I have no idea what are you talking about, if anybody else does maybe can translate.
  • #12,762
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:35am Nov 11, 2014 8:35am
Quoting Paz
{quote} Again I have no idea what are you talking about, if anybody else does maybe they can translate.
I'm sorry but there is no afghan language in google translate. My native language cannot teach you a lesson.
Just ask directly if you have any problem else I have to believe you are covering your mistake.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #12,763
  • Nov 11, 2014 8:43am Nov 11, 2014 8:43am
Quoting Paz
{quote} Again I have no idea what are you talking about, if anybody else does maybe can translate.
Most of Buyers already took their postions and put stop loss right below 1.2000...
A
nd if the bears push the price suddently down a lot, like to 1.1900 or something, most of the buyers will be stopped out already.
If SNB really want to defend 1.2000, then they would be the only one buying, which makes it harder to intervene...
  • #12,764
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:05am Nov 11, 2014 9:05am
Quoting ShepherdL
{quote} Most of Buyers already took their postions and put stop loss right below 1.2000... A nd if the bears push the price suddently down a lot, like to 1.1900 or something, most of the buyers will be stopped out already. If SNB really want to defend 1.2000, then they would be the only one buying, which makes it harder to intervene...
Well, to begin with, if SNB have to defend 1.20 (it is not said yet it will happen), price doesn't go down to 1.19, because sellers do not have enough euro to buy (say) 10 billions francs at 1.20, and even if they have, then they would have to do it again at 1.1995, etc. As some point the trading and loss limits kick in.

Then, even in this bearish and depressed market there are still uptrends going on (we have one right now). You can image the sort of "trend" that develops once SNB starts buying. They only have to invest in a good seed, then the avalanche follows.

Finally, let's not forget that this would be an intervention against appreciation, not the much more common opposite one, that almost invariably ends in catastrophe (see what Russia bank said yesterday - they learned the lesson). Excess of foreign currency can be disposed of in many ways, lack of it is another story.
  • #12,765
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:27am Nov 11, 2014 9:27am
Quoting forexings
{quote} I'm sorry but there is no afghan language in google translate. My native language cannot teach you a lesson. Just ask directly if you have any problem else I have to believe you are covering your mistake.
Sorry I didn't understood you were referring to people with long open positions, not new buyers.

For closing these positions (at at loss for for the trader) no SNB money is needed, the broker / ECN will do that based on the hedging they made at the time the position was opened. That is the essence of their business, your loss is fully your, your gain is only partially your.
  • #12,766
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:28am Nov 11, 2014 9:28am
Intervention is not manipulation. Manipulation - when the big boys want to trigger some SLs cascade(menthal, or real), and then, consequently buy that for the better price, They iniciate this without warning. They only activate that and wait, how far the price drop, without themselves. When there is good drop, they buy.
Intervention - when they start sharply, its their "first strike". This can be done only once. Once they do it, everybody knows, can strategize etc... Thats why many interventions are the straight one movement without manipulation and SLs hunting etc...

That doesnt mean, that this is the case, future is not clear... be careful.
  • #12,767
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:36am Nov 11, 2014 9:36am
Quoting Paz
{quote} Sorry I didn't understood you were referring to people with long open positions, not new buyers. For closing these positions (at at loss for for the trader) no SNB money is needed, the broker / ECN will do that based on the hedging they made at the time the position was opened. That is the essence of their business, your loss is fully your, your gain is only partially your.
New buyers will hesitate to open long position if 1.20 cannot defend.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #12,768
  • Nov 11, 2014 9:44am Nov 11, 2014 9:44am
Quoting forexings
{quote} New buyers will hesitate to open long position if 1.20 cannot defend.

1.2000 is not the game before 30th november
Trading by EA
  • #12,769
  • Edited 10:56am Nov 11, 2014 9:50am | Edited 10:56am
Quoting forexings
{quote} What kind of nonsense logic is it? If franc sellers don't have enough euro to buy your 10B swissy before dispatch SNB red line 1.20 then why after 1.20? Are you expecting some kind of profit taking (laughing)? Breaking the floor will trigger more sell off that could extend 20B + sellers stopped out extra 10B franc. Now SNB has to defend total 30B euro before putting extra money to set back above 1.20
I've lost you again.

If franc sellers don't have enough euro to buy your 10B swissy before dispatch SNB red line 1.20 then why after 1.20?

You mean "Franc buyer" ? Francs seller would be SNB. They have that many Francs as they want, because they "print" them. The buyers need to pay in Euro, but they have just as many as their fund / risk manager allows them to trade.

Breaking the floor will trigger more sell off

Correct, if the SNB was suddenly found not to intervene. So far they reiterated they they would, just as they did in sept. 2012.

sellers stopped out extra 10B franc.

No, as mentioned above, no SNB money is needed to cover a stop loss, unless the broker was so naive to let their clients floating losses work against them.
  • #12,770
  • Edited 10:10am Nov 11, 2014 9:56am | Edited 10:10am
Quoting Paz
{quote} Well, to begin with, if SNB defends 1.20, price doesn't go down to 1.19, because sellers do not have enough euro to buy (say) 10 billions francs at 1.20, and even if they have, then they would have to do it again at 1.1995, etc. As some point the trading and loss limits kick in.
Then, even in this bearish and depressed market there are still uptrends going on (we have one right now). You can image the sort of "trend" that develops once SNB starts buying. They only have to invest in a good seed, then the avalanche follows.
Finally,...
What kind of logic is it? Euro is easy to get because it's 2nd reserve currency but not franc. If franc buyers don't have enough euro to buy your 10B swissy before dispatch SNB red line 1.20 then why after 1.20? Are you expecting some kind of profit taking (laughing)? Breaking the floor will trigger more sell off that could extend 20B (2x euro) + sellers stopped out extra 10B euro. Now SNB has to defend total 30B (3x) euro by franc before putting extra money to set back above 1.20
So SNB will face really hard time if floor breaks.

N.B.: I was doing multiple tasks during writing that comment. Fixed mistakes.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #12,771
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:08am Nov 11, 2014 10:08am
So it's clear that if SNB wants to do something to fight against deflation they have to act before 1.20 otherwise they have to flood the pair with chf papers
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #12,772
  • Nov 11, 2014 10:26am Nov 11, 2014 10:26am
Quoting mmudasir
{quote} 1.2000 is not the game before 30th november
Dude, no one told you when it will approach to get 1.20 or ever it will happen. We are discussing about the result.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #12,773
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:33am Nov 11, 2014 11:33am
Quoting forexings
So it's clear that if SNB wants to do something to fight against deflation they have to act before 1.20 otherwise they have to flood the pair with chf papers
Excuse me, you mean that SNB intend to do nothing? or they are just waiting a chance like the Sep 2012? Thank you.
  • #12,774
  • Nov 11, 2014 11:50am Nov 11, 2014 11:50am
It appears that the SNB is shifting reserves out of $ Yen and Gbp and is about to throw a load into €s.
I may not be right...BUT, I am never wrong
  • #12,775
  • Edited 12:12pm Nov 11, 2014 12:01pm | Edited 12:12pm
Quoting OberonZhao
{quote} Excuse me, you mean that SNB intend to do nothing? or they are just waiting a chance like the Sep 2012? Thank you.
Forexings is simplifying or confusing things.
Deflation is not the same as an overvalued currency, although the two things can happen at the same time.

SNB may have to fight deflation although that doesn't happen to be urgent. It was much more urgent for Japan with their huge public debt, something that is not happening in Switzerland. Anyway, if if they have to do that, it is done over a long period of time, with stimulus measures that are also political not just economical.

On the other hand, an overvalued currency is much more easily fought and that can done tactically only when required.
  • #12,776
  • Nov 11, 2014 12:16pm Nov 11, 2014 12:16pm
Good Afternoon Dudes. Calm down, I know Afghanian and can help

Some forgot a simple fact that as much as there are stop losses at 1.20 or around(below), there are also take profit at same level. So, it will cancel each other(nearly!) and SNB is in strong position to defend the floor. They have down to 20 pips at 1.1980 to freely play around(In case huge pressure, although they'll keep it above 1.20 for credibility..) Never underestimate how many billions located there by SNB.

Even Bank of HongKong hadn't go through panic when Usd/HKD went at past and recently to 7.75 and broke it too by less than 10 pips(around 7.7492). The pair was also moving for much much time(many hours and days) under 7.75 but BOH still defended it, recently spiked 200 pips in 3 days and that's BOH not SNB

Don't picture EC bears as if they can really control the pair as they want around 1.20. They are afraid like hell much more than EC Bulls.

EC Bears are just speculators, hedge funds mostly, will like to know from any source if it's possible to know their names!!
Speculators are found all the time, they don't know what risk means, they like to live in risky trades, they care less of fundamental and technical, they challenged the Fed many times and Bernanke warned them consistently few years ago. They did the same with BOJ and SNB not an exception.

Briefly, it's just a matter of time(few days) EC will go to late 1.2030s and 1.2040s before building on 1.2050 and up........Am sure it will not be here at date of Gold BS

Talking Pure Technical here, hold your longs or open new ones, it's no longer if it will end in profit(that's sure) but how much can take the most out of it by opening many positions and exiting....so on.... if it stays in tight range.
Or calm down and give it some days to fly

The worst would be, able to close your positions anytime at current prices, it ain't going any far down(if stays this low firstly!), be sure

It's all about SNB decision if they still will defend it whatever Gold or other factors pop up, then be sure 1.20 will be defended
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #12,777
  • Nov 11, 2014 3:16pm Nov 11, 2014 3:16pm
ok, we drove this thing to 1.20 it is time to take it to 1.35, shall we.
  • #12,778
  • Nov 11, 2014 3:19pm Nov 11, 2014 3:19pm
Feel free to boost it there
  • #12,779
  • Nov 11, 2014 3:29pm Nov 11, 2014 3:29pm
You know what? I want it at 1.20 for real now. Let's all keep selling !
  • #12,780
  • Nov 11, 2014 4:02pm Nov 11, 2014 4:02pm
Quoting J.Clinton
Briefly, it's just a matter of time(few days) EC will go to late 1.2030s and 1.2040s before building on 1.2050 and up........Am sure it will not be here at date of Gold BS
agreed, i think snb are likely to push the eurchf high up so that it is not in danger before the referendum. we'll see. they will also have a certain amount of time before implementing the letter of the referendum in case it passes so it could be that the eurchf is safe for a while in any case. my plan: buy eurchf. if referendum passes, i think of closing eurchf and will likely start buying xauusd.

cheers,
k
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