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  • Post #12,681
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  • Nov 7, 2014 12:16pm Nov 7, 2014 12:16pm
  •  zoran22
  • | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Member | 199 Posts
Quoting Urosh1
Disliked
{quote} If you believe to short why you step in sell ?
Ignored
not crazy yet
 
 
  • Post #12,682
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  • Nov 7, 2014 12:18pm Nov 7, 2014 12:18pm
  •  insider-
  • | Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 81 Posts
Quoting JamesCaan
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{quote} Do you know have more details or a source?
Ignored
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g...r_options.html
 
 
  • Post #12,683
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  • Nov 7, 2014 12:26pm Nov 7, 2014 12:26pm
  •  insider-
  • | Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 81 Posts
Only hedge funds are able to take it this far and they are the ones writing and selling the calls. I don't think they are aiming to make just few points out of the pair but they will make much more if the calls they sold expire without exercise. But WTF do I know I am just assuming
 
 
  • Post #12,684
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  • Nov 7, 2014 12:26pm Nov 7, 2014 12:26pm
  •  Paz
  • | Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 172 Posts
Long, long and more long, now's payday

My stock also doing good ...

What's better I found the ignore setting, just click on fool's name for the last time !
 
 
  • Post #12,685
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  • Nov 7, 2014 12:33pm Nov 7, 2014 12:33pm
  •  Mevo
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 397 Posts
Quoting insider-
Disliked
{quote} http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g...r_options.html
Ignored
I already told several times that options on Globex are disabled since the introduction on the floor.
There are NO OPTIONS traded on CME on Euro/Chf. The product exists but can't be traded.
There may be options available with Saxo bank or at FxAll, but I don't use them, so I don't know if they are tradable actually.
 
 
  • Post #12,686
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  • Nov 7, 2014 12:46pm Nov 7, 2014 12:46pm
  •  JamesCaan
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Member | 139 Posts
Nice rebound!
 
 
  • Post #12,687
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  • Nov 7, 2014 1:10pm Nov 7, 2014 1:10pm
  •  insider-
  • | Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 81 Posts
I'm not expert on options because I never used them. But there are EC options on the EUREX, also the European type of fx options can only be exercised at maturity it could be a factor that drove the pair down.
 
 
  • Post #12,688
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  • Nov 7, 2014 3:04pm Nov 7, 2014 3:04pm
  •  zoran22
  • | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Member | 199 Posts
Quoting Mevo
Disliked
{quote} I already told several times that options on Globex are disabled since the introduction on the floor. There are NO OPTIONS traded on CME on Euro/Chf. The product exists but can't be traded. There may be options available with Saxo bank or at FxAll, but I don't use them, so I don't know if they are tradable actually.
Ignored

options on EURCHF are tradable on OTC
 
 
  • Post #12,689
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  • Nov 7, 2014 3:32pm Nov 7, 2014 3:32pm
  •  Mevo
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 397 Posts
Quoting zoran22
Disliked
{quote} options on EURCHF are tradable on OTC
Ignored
Lol, EVERYTHING is tradable OTC. Do you even know what it means ?
Insider is right, there seems to be EC options on EUREX according to their website. But I can't check, I have access to EUREX, but my broker disables all the FX part, because it already proposes the GLOBEX.
 
 
  • Post #12,690
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  • Nov 8, 2014 3:07am Nov 8, 2014 3:07am
  •  J.Clinton
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
@mevo stop posting nonsense on EC thread.
Even a Swiss citizen will never defend a strong Swiss Franc and 20% Gold reserved in Switzerland
You write rubbish relating strong currency to better life and purchasing power. You don't get it that it's a cycle that turns back to CURRENCY strength/weakness.
I'll not mention European countries comparing it to Switzerland but will just say X first to not downgrade these countries second there are many countries that have similar data
Country X(many Beautiful European Countries) vs Switzerland(none the less):
X Average Monthly Salary 800Euros VS Swiss 5000 Euros
*In most countries, average salary means barely being able to live normally as cost of living is anyway higher...this is why many societies have transferred from poor-middle-rich to poor-rich.
When the X Citizen is earning 800 Euros per month on average, the cost of living is low, a weak currency will help in better purchasing power
VS Swiss Citizen earning 5000Euros on average have very high cost of living but earning much more so can afford it but when the currency is strong it hurts, versus a weak or average strength currency will help in better purchasing power.
Why? Because Salary is not directly related to currency strength/weakness, it will not decrease or increase according to foreign currency exchange rate but to the country economy.
There are many factors related to economy development and improvement.
Simply, when you are paid good and the currency is not strong, can buy more of what you want and companies can work more comfortably selling more since it can work on decreasing its prices, that high salaries(compared to other countries) will not effect these countries because it is able to sell more products on a weaker currency since production cost will lower.......etc
In the above, was just talking in the local point of view while in the abroad point of view as a foreigner willing to invest like open a company in Switzerland or any investment there or even go for tourism other than few days, will never do it when the currency is that powerful.
Do you know how many Swiss Watch companies complaining about the currency strength??
On strong currency very less will buy......
The Crystal example few years ago was the Yen. Japanese Car manufacturers were always complaining to the BOJ of doing something about Yen strength.
Can you ever understand how much companies as Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi....etc are now working comfortably selling better and lowering its costs on a weak yen.
Even with a stable economy and average currency strength, many companies prefer to manufacture abroad in the far east..asia since production cost is much much lower, so they compete in their products selling prices.
A country can enjoy high quality life but without it being that costly as in Switzerland.
Simply, no foreigner will invest in Switzerland with a Strong Swiss Franc other than possibly the multi billionaires!!!

Ofcourse not comparing it to Swiss, but look how much Gulf countries people(most) earn while cost of living is average, maybe Dubai is the highest but still reasonable especially in basics like food which is the main factor of living for all ppl, because that country facing high investment by many big companies and rich ppl.
Not hard to have a country where high quality = high cost of living but hard to have countries of high quality vs average cost of living
Yes, UC went too high 0.97 but still anything below 1 is nonsense. I will never invest in a country that is much stronger than the dollar, there's no equilibrium even!!!!!
Some European countries are nowadays attractive for purchasing lands, houses, apartments, villas...... just because the economy is down despite the Euro not cheap against the dollar but since the property category prices drove down quickly it became very cheap for foreigners.
Bad Economy= ppl want money= many want to sell= property prices down....
Good Economy= ppl have money= less want to sell= property prices up...
Swiss Citizens may not be real effected in their daily life by strong Swiss Franc while purchasing the basics like food.....due to high salaries and less change in prices but as the currency strengthens more especially against the euro which is hugely related to its European existence location.....they will start to think of buying foreign products that may cost less generally, so that will start to effect local companies soon......that will turn to downgrade in economy, companies lowering salaries as sells decrease as competition increase, even if this can be controlled by the government applying more taxes on foreign goods...etc
Can see that we are back to the same cycle where everything affects everything at end but it is not direct at first, takes time......explode will sooner or later come....
By the way, million dollar? already trading with and .....since we live on average some 80 years, have been changing countries of residence every some decade or so..(short and long travels aside...), property prices varies but there's a point where it can't go more lower, there you must buy. So whatever amount you have must invest some in trading(if you are a market trader), some in lands, houses..., and keep some in banks just for the possible bad days or quick withdrawal of money when needed.
There's no long term(decade) investment, who does that is plain stupid!!!
There are future plans that must be started now to achieve later.
No one guarantees if will wake up alive tomorrow! Live everyday as if the last.

Unless you are not thinking of yourself to live in happiness the remaining some couple decades God will give us, but much worried about your inheritances!!! then if betting on increase in Gold price in decades to come, go buy Gold and hide it for them to live better than you have done!!!!
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
 
 
  • Post #12,691
  • Quote
  • Nov 8, 2014 3:59am Nov 8, 2014 3:59am
  •  J.Clinton
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
Everyone nowadays during this unstoppable financial crisis is searching how to save money from here and there, it never have to do with being Stingy

For example, since no one talks about the self, looking at my friends who live ordinary simple life despite their rich status, while others live on average salary and want to buy everything they want despite expensive..from bank loans!!! then live in headaches of how to payback

Not saying to live desperately when you are rich or least can afford goooood living, we live once...but do not over spend...

I know some ppl who have like 7 cars, 8 lands, 6 Villas, 3 companies...etc they barely visit or use it once a year!! while when paying in a night club or restaurant or mall...they barely have some cash or worry if there's still some money left in their credit cards
They have the obsession of BUY!! They might buy a new car for some 200K to see them sell it after some months loosing some 30K.
When one two or three cars can satisfy your needs don't buy 7 just to satisfy your psychological problems
Yeah, there are such stupid people, don't be one, don't live like one, don't act like one. Live SIMPLE and think then act SMART

There's a big difference between what can afford and what must buy(only needs)
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
 
 
  • Post #12,692
  • Quote
  • Nov 8, 2014 4:01am Nov 8, 2014 4:01am
  •  J.Clinton
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
Anyone saw EC collapse to 1.1948 in off market at xe.com

How can I go to sleep
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
 
 
  • Post #12,693
  • Quote
  • Nov 8, 2014 4:44am Nov 8, 2014 4:44am
  •  Urosh1
  • | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Member | 35 Posts
Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
Anyone saw EC collapse to 1.1948 in off market at xe.com How can I go to sleep
Ignored
I hope that SNB realize that is not time for joke anymore ! This is real threat for peg after more than 2 years !
 
 
  • Post #12,694
  • Quote
  • Nov 8, 2014 5:01am Nov 8, 2014 5:01am
  •  Caa
  • | Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Member | 130 Posts
Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
Anyone saw EC collapse to 1.1948 in off market at xe.com How can I go to sleep
Ignored
1.1948??? day low shows 1.2029 on bloom and 1.2030 on Reuters. with EURUSD at 1.2400 would mean USDCHF would need to be below 0.9635 and the daily low is 0.9649 while EURUSD is well above 1.2400, =>not possible. so rest assured, the floor is still in place.
 
 
  • Post #12,695
  • Quote
  • Nov 8, 2014 5:55am Nov 8, 2014 5:55am
  •  Fana
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 1,849 Posts
Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
Anyone saw EC collapse to 1.1948 in off market at xe.com How can I go to sleep
Ignored
Thats problem of xe.com only. They do it often... They make virtual spike and then go back... In my Oanda, thats OK, no changes:-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: XEchf.jpg
Size: 66 KB
 
 
  • Post #12,696
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:38pm Nov 8, 2014 7:15am | Edited at 4:38pm
  •  Mevo
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 397 Posts
Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
@mevo stop posting nonsense on EC thread.
Ignored
Again telling me what I have to do ? You know what ? After carefully reading your posts, it appeared evident to me that you are so clever that you must be right and I must be the idiot. So, I will do what you tell me and stop posting. Please forgive all the nonsens I wrote. I didn't know I have to face a million+ trader that really seem to know what he is talking about.

Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
You don't get it that it's a cycle that turns back to CURRENCY strength/weakness. (..)
a weak currency will help in better purchasing power (..)
when the currency is strong it hurts, versus a weak or average strength currency will help in better purchasing power. (..)
the currency is not strong, can buy more of what you want and companies can work more comfortably selling more since it can work on decreasing its prices(..)
weaker currency since production cost will lower.......etc(..)
Ignored
No, I don't get it, sorry, I really must be fuck!ng stupid !
So in fact a weaker currency is the holy grail and allows you to buy more !? Damn, you really learnt me something here. I was convinced it was the opposite. How silly have I been all that time !?

Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
as a foreigner willing to invest like open a company in Switzerland or any investment there (..) will never do it when the currency is that powerful.
Ignored
Oh !? So it seems I was wrong all the way.
If a foreigner invest 100 somewhere, I was guessing he expects a return on his investment. Let's say for example 10% per year. So by investing his 100 where there is a stong currency, even if it is "expensive" to invest, he will earn 10 every year of a currency which is strong. Which may make him more of his own currency if he converts it, and even earn more and more with time if the currency gets stronger.

Now I understand where my mistake was: It's a weaker currency that buys you more and more stuff, so that's the goal. In this case it would make perfect sens to invest in countries where the currency is weak and expected to weaken even more.

So, in fact, people have been stupid (like me !) to invest in Switzerland this last decades where the currency was getting stonger and stonger. That's why Switzerland really have to get a weaker currency, or people and companies will all leave to invest in Venezuela or Argentina where the currency is weak and may get weaker.

Thank you so much for getting things right for me. I have been so wrong, and only realize it now thanks to you.

Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
lowering its costs on a weak yen.
Ignored
A weaker currency LOWER your production costs too !? Waouh, now I understand why it's so great.
I was thinking that it was increasing them. Just for example if you have some parts you need to import, you would pay them more with a weaker currency. Again wrong. Hopefully, you're here !

Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
Even with a stable economy and average currency strength, many companies prefer to manufacture abroad in the far east..asia since production cost is much much lower, so they compete in their products selling prices.
Ignored
Now I'm confused. So it's not because the companies sell their products in a stronger currency that they can buy labor cheaper in weak currency countries thanks to that strong currency ?
You told me it is weak currency that buys more just before ? So it's in east Asia that people have the highest purchasing power in the world, because they have weak currencies, right ?

It's not there that they get exploited for nothing by strong currency countries because of their weak currencies and can't buy much with it, right ? It's not what we call "poor" countries, right ?
Weak currencies are good, buy more of what you want. So in fact the poor country is Switzerland, because they have a strong currency, and they really, really have to do something about it.

Humm, your thinking start to become weird to me ... You convinced me, but still seems fishy on some points.
It must probably be because I don't get it, just because I'm not smart enough compared to you, I guess. It must definitely be that !

Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
Simply, no foreigner will invest in Switzerland with a Strong Swiss Franc
Ignored
I understood this part. He would earn a strong currency, and nobody wants a strong currency as weak currencies buys you more. That was so logic it just blew my mind when you opened my eyes !


Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
look how much Gulf countries people(most) earn while cost of living is average
Ignored
Humm, a stupid guy like me would probably have told that it's maybe a very little related to oil and natural gas revenues, but what do I know. You're the clever guy here. You probably know better than me.

Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
I will never invest in a country that is much stronger than the dollar
Ignored
Of course not ! You would earn a strong currency by doing that. As you clearly explained: Nobody wants a strong currency when weak currency buys you more of what you want.

Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
Bad Economy= ppl want money= many want to sell= property prices down.... Good Economy= ppl have money= less want to sell= property prices up...
Ignored
Now you explained better, makes perfect sens.
Bad economy = WEAKER currency, so that's when people really want to get their hand on that currency as a weak currency is so great.
Then they can sleep in the streets.

Before, I was more thinking of something like Bad economy = people want to leave to go somewhere else, and especially nobody wants to buy in such places, so prices get low. And good economy (which was related to a strong currency in my mind, but now I know I have been stupid) = attracts more people = higher demand for real estate in the area = higher price.

The even tricky part was the referendum in Switzerland where they wanted to restrict immigration in Switzerland: It really looked like many foreigners were attracted to Switzerland. Which is a nonsens: Who would want to live in Switzerland where there is a strong currency ? You perfectly explained that everybody wants a weak currency, so people absolutely all want to go to countries like Venezuela, Argentina or south east Asia. Hell no, nobody would want to live in Switzerland !

With your explanations, I'm even surprised there is still anybody there, they should already all have left seen how the currency is strong since that long !!!

Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
Swiss Citizens may not be real effected in their daily life by strong Swiss Franc while purchasing the basics like food.....due to high salaries and less change in prices but as the currency strengthens more especially against the euro which is hugely related to its European existence location.....they will start to think of buying foreign products that may cost less generally, so that will start to effect local companies soon......that will turn to downgrade in economy, companies lowering salaries as sells decrease as competition increase, even...
Ignored
I guess you should have ended your post before that section, because here you are starting to confuse me again: It's like you are telling the nonsens I was telling before: that a strong currency can buy you more stuff and that it would enable you to work less and let the other with a weaker currency work for you.

No, you can't tell something like this, that is nonsens. That is what I was thinking before you enlighted me.
Weak currency is the goal: Working like crazy for nothing (which amazingly buy you more of what you want according to your explanations) is what everybody wants !


Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
By the way, million dollar? already trading with
Ignored
Sure, it now appears me perfectly clear the kind of person I tried to argue with with my nonsens, sorry about that.

Quoting J.Clinton
Disliked
There's no long term(decade) investment, who does that is plain stupid!!!
Ignored
Of course. That's logic as it is the kind of BS I was thinking of. As I understood I'm stupid, what I'm doing can only be stupid.
And the stupidest guy on the planet is a guy called Warren Buffet. Never read anything that guy says, it would drive you crazy. So much BS and nonsens ! When I think he is the richest guy out there, that's sick !

Thank you very much for everything, I guess I'm done here.
I don't know how much other accounts you use here and which posts with a different name are yours too, and I don't want to know.

All my excuses for not understanding earlier how stupid I was with my interventions.

EDIT: After thinking again about the amazing stuff you tried to teach me, that I'm just unable to understand because I'm quite limited, an idea came to me: Maybe you are not correctly making the difference beetween what "investing" is and what just going somewhere to take advantage of the cheap workforce is. You could almost call it modern exploitation. Slavery ? You can say they agree. Maybe they just think that a weak currency is so great, like you

Western companies setting up factories in east Asia have no interest in earning money or providing any good or service there. (I was guessing everybody wants to sell their stuff to get a strong currency) They are just here to have cheap workers thanks to the weak local economy and local currency they purchase with their stronger currency. The workers getting that weak local currency can almost buy nothing with it, and thet can't go somewhere else because they would be able to buy absolutely nothing with it abroad. My (stupid) view was that the kings are the people with a strong currency: They buy a lot at home with it, and abroad, they are just amazingly rich foreigners.... But again, I'm very probably wrong, what do I know ? Compared to you, you must be the one right for sure.
 
 
  • Post #12,697
  • Quote
  • Nov 8, 2014 3:22pm Nov 8, 2014 3:22pm
  •  Swissie
  • | Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Member | 170 Posts
Why are "rich countries" cb's all over the world trying to keep their currencies low mevo?
 
 
  • Post #12,698
  • Quote
  • Nov 8, 2014 4:24pm Nov 8, 2014 4:24pm
  •  hornsant
  • | Joined May 2011 | Status: Member | 228 Posts
Quoting Swissie
Disliked
Why are "rich countries" cb's all over the world trying to keep their currencies low mevo?
Ignored
In that way they avoid a nominal colapse of the stock markets. Lower the service of debt, only to mention two conveniences.
 
 
  • Post #12,699
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:50am Nov 9, 2014 10:03am | Edited at 11:50am
  •  Mevo
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 397 Posts
Quoting hornsant
Disliked
Lower the service of debt.
Ignored
Ok, I told I won't post anymore, this is my very, very last post.
After this, I will have to stop reading what's written here, because I just can't help myself to react when I see such crazy statements.

A lower/weaker currency lowers the service of the debt ?
Seriously ? Are you all insane or is this some kind of joke ? Did you think 2 seconds about what you were writing ?

Debt is either denominated in the local currency, in which case the exchange rate doesn't change anything. You (or I guess we speak of govt/countries here) promised to pay back X of the local currency, not that it would be worth something or not. In the case of a country, they can just print that currency, reason which government debt is seen as a "no risk" asset. Any country can repay something they can print as much as they want. It may not be worth much, but that never was the deal.

Or debt can be in a foreign currency (often US Dollar), in which case, when the local currency weakens, it INCREASES the debt burden ! You can get less of the foreign currency with your local currency worth less, so it makes the number in local currency of what you need to pay go up !

Let's say you are European, you promise to pay 125 USD next year. Today, it would cost you 100 EUR, because at EUR/USD = 1.25, you get 125 USD with 100 EUR.
If next year, the Euro weakened to EUR/USD = 1, your debt will cost you 125 EUR, so it just increased 25%

In case of a country, they can't print the foreign currency. They can print the local one, but they will have to print more in order to be able to buy the required amount of the foreign one, which will devalue the local currency even more. Hint: This is how Russia defaulted in the late 90s and Argentina around 2000.
 
 
  • Post #12,700
  • Quote
  • Nov 9, 2014 11:29am Nov 9, 2014 11:29am
  •  hornsant
  • | Joined May 2011 | Status: Member | 228 Posts
Mevo you sound a bit stressed. reserve currencies do it all the time. Do you have anything to say about the stock mkt ?.
 
 
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