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  • #934,081
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:05am Nov 7, 2014 1:05am
EURUSD
1.2415 should offer resistance, 23.6 Ret 4 hrs chart last swing + WS1 untested from below, 1.2424 daily pivot, any 4 hrs close above these levels would look bullish. On the 1 hr chart even 1.2406 could work for continuation.
Price bouncing off MS1 but extension 1.27 D1 is now broken.
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  • #934,082
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:29am Nov 7, 2014 1:29am
Quoting Forate
Hello everyone, I am a new kid on the block, hope you guys don't mind me joining in the party, more importantly I would like to get some guidance or tips on the EURO. It is low at the moment and has not been going anywhere. Should we wait for it to pull back to a certain level or just start shorting some now at this lever 1.27xx ? I know there is no definite answer, let make it a poll or voice your honest and best opinion. Thanks. Forate
i would advise to wait until AFTER NFP before taking any position related to USD....
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  • #934,083
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:30am Nov 7, 2014 1:30am
Quoting fxtyrant
Someone saying im not sharing my analysis, sooo might as well share the analysis i did for work.
Well reasoned analysis, thanks very much for sharing
  • #934,084
  • Nov 7, 2014 1:42am Nov 7, 2014 1:42am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i would advise to wait until AFTER NFP before taking any position related to USD....
Thanks Fxtyrant

Is that because the current low might be already factored in the good news of NFP.
  • #934,085
  • Edited 2:19am Nov 7, 2014 1:46am | Edited 2:19am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} ... Talk about soros.... http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...rds-deflation/ Soros might become himself yet again..... how much do you guys wana bet hes shorting the EURCHF betting on the peg to breakdown like he did with his first success in the de-peg of GBP and Deutsche marks??
if correct the usd/chf may be the better trade to look at.. i can see 31xx pips if correct (with a HH only).. 31xx pips comparably is more is more on the eu, since in theory the euro is allowed to weaken. the usd/chf is near a high that may determine the 31xx possibility.. if it fails the e/u is a better trade. .9971 is a good one to watch, but after a break a retrace is good to wait for. and w/o a break the u/c would drop also... the swiss are phucked regardless

change trade to chart
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  • #934,086
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:05am Nov 7, 2014 2:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if correct the usd/chf may be the better trade to look at.. i can see 31xx pips if correct (with a HH only).. 31xx pips comparably is more is more on the eu, since in theory the euro is allowed to weaken. the usd/chf is near a high that may determine the 31xx possibility.. if it fails the e/u is a better trade. .9971 is a good one to watch, but after a break a retrace is good to wait for. and w/o a break the u/c would drop also... the swiss are phucked regardless
actually if EURCHF peg does get broken... heres what i see....

EURCHF down, EURUSD down, makes USDCHF flat.

Then the whole EURUSD Up = USDCHF down / EURUSD down = USDCHF up Correlation will disappear...

Just like every other correlations in the world have disappeared.... AUD and Gold, US Treasury and JPY, Oil and Cad....
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  • #934,087
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:06am Nov 7, 2014 2:06am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I understand it's a studio working in collaboration with M-Tv, but I post songs from there only because they are of good quality and presentable to international community. Most songs from these developing countries are either too inferior in quality or are marred with annoying cheap commercials, the ones from Coke Studio are better in quality. Many years ago, I worked for a media company that was topmost firm in the country, we established a quality studio in that developing country and produced many good plays and commercials. I sometimes...
I know you dont work for Coca cola, your are not a brainwashed idiot.
I have a friend of IQ 157 who DID work for coca cola couple of years ago. They tried brainwashing their staff that Coke is actually sort of healthy, and that the sugar is just good for yah, and that its a good thing for kids to drink it for lunch. Regardless of if the staff actually believed it or not, they agreed. Of course, given that they wanted to keep their job, they didnt have much choice.

Well my friend dont work for them any more. He made his own business instead. But he is still into marketing which was what he did for Coca cola too.
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  • #934,088
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:14am Nov 7, 2014 2:14am
Quoting fxtyrant
Let me begin by explain what the chart shows on one hand a Monthly EURUSD chart over a stretch of 30 years with a 200(SMA) plotted in pink in comparison to the US 30Y swap rate plotted in Yellow, the 30 Y swap is directly affected by the benchmark fed fund rate
If there isnt something quite important im missing here, i dont think so. The Euro didnt exist in 1984, im pretty certain of that. I think at around 1988-1990 something some people where thinking about something like the EMU and what to call the currency, eurodollar, ECU and some other names i vaguely remember.
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  • #934,089
  • Edited 2:28am Nov 7, 2014 2:15am | Edited 2:28am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} actually if EURCHF peg does get broken... heres what i see.... EURCHF down, EURUSD down, makes USDCHF flat. Then the whole EURUSD Up = USDCHF down / EURUSD down = USDCHF up Correlation will disappear... Just like every other correlations in the world have disappeared.... AUD and Gold, US Treasury and JPY, Oil and Cad....
a good place to do it on chart with R so close.. eu seems a good place to be.. swiss will still be screwed with eu cheap products.
i said "trade" in that post earlier. better worded is "chart"
with the peg, a e/c chart is vanilla (distorted) only showing a 600 pips drop target.
reflected on the eu at 2400 that distorted 600 pips puts eu at 1800 level..not distorted and it looks to be more..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #934,090
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:17am Nov 7, 2014 2:17am
Quoting yaed
{quote} If there isnt something quite important im missing here, i dont think so. The Euro didnt exist in 1984, im pretty certain of that. I think at around 1988-1990 something some people where thinking about something like the EMU and what to call the currency, eurodollar, ECU and some other names i vaguely remember.
Before the common currency, people were trading Deutsche Mark as active as the EURO right now.
back then Deutsche Mark is today's Euro.


Before the switch to the Euro, the Deutsche Mark was a major international reserve currency, second only to the United States Dollar. The percental composition of currencies of official foreign exchange reserves since 1995
here you can see how close the EURO of today was with the deutshce mark when deutsche mark discontinued...
US dollar (Green)
Euro (Blue)
German mark (Yellow)
French franc (Pink)
Pound sterling (Red)
Japanese yen (Black)
Other (light blue)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...899b4e8f6f.png
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  • #934,091
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:24am Nov 7, 2014 2:24am
A hidden bull attempting to reverse in every 100 pips down. Once it can manage 200 pips move then bigger line consolidation may start. So every 100 pips down bull setting trap.
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  • #934,092
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:25am Nov 7, 2014 2:25am
Quoting forexings
A hidden bull attempting to reverse in every 100 pips down. Once it can manage 200 pips move then bigger line consolidation may start. So every 100 pips down bull setting trap.
gosh you're still longing? bettter start praying the NFP figures come out bad... or the EUROUSD is diving if its much better than expected.....

and its likely gona be an upside surprise on NFP.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...-big-surprise/
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  • #934,093
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:27am Nov 7, 2014 2:27am
EURUSD fell during yesterday session to fresh Year lows at 1.2363. It appears that the market should continue to move lower, aiming for the 1.2050 level which is our longer-term support. Rallies at this point should be selling opportunities as EURO should continue depreciating f against the greenback.
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  • #934,094
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:27am Nov 7, 2014 2:27am
Clear and crispy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #934,095
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:29am Nov 7, 2014 2:29am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} if EURCHF is gona fall below 1.20 and really fall... its going to fall fast.... so dont put the pending immediately under 1.20, if its not ready to fall, it might spike below 1.20 for a brief moment and you'd be left stuck with a triggered short....
Great suggestion. Candles on EURCHF aren't that big, so I suggest 1.19 would be a reasonable sell stop location? I would hesitate to place it on 1.195 because a 50 pip spike could be possible. Do you think 1.19 is still too aggressive?

*edit: a look at 06/2011 tells me that 1795 might be a better place.
  • #934,096
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:34am Nov 7, 2014 2:34am
Quoting erap
Clear and crispy {image}
wow a round number trader.... havent seen the likes of you in a long time.... missed you guys....
proper old school.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #934,097
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:36am Nov 7, 2014 2:36am
uj may be setting up a new long 114.75 ish... the problem is the target at 116.86 is above 115.88, possible R
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #934,098
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:36am Nov 7, 2014 2:36am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Great suggestion. Candles on EURCHF aren't that big, so I suggest 1.19 would be a reasonable sell stop location? I would hesitate to place it on 1.195 because a 50 pip spike could be possible. Do you think 1.19 is still too aggressive? *edit: a look at 06/2011 tells me that 1795 might be a better place.
thsi i honestly dont know.... if this is a flush out really comes down to how big of a collaboration the banks are gona work on to flush out stops below 1.20... it could go down 1000 pips and back up for all i know..... and then continue down like it did to the USDJPY when an earth quake with fukushima happened....

i would wait until we have a confirmed close below the 1.20 floor, and wait until 1.20 support turned resistance before entering short....
i honestly dont know how big of a move its going to be, so ill stay out.... dont like being in the crossfire in that scenario....

it is going to be a panic moment when that happens so its best to stay out and stay sane....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #934,099
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:38am Nov 7, 2014 2:38am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Before the common currency, people were trading Deutsche Mark as active as the EURO right now. back then Deutsche Mark is today's Euro. Before the switch to the Euro, the Deutsche Mark was a major international reserve currency, second only to the United States Dollar. The percental composition of currencies of official foreign exchange reserves since 1995 here you can see how close the EURO of today was with the deutshce mark when deutsche mark discontinued... US...
What exactly does the left axis represent? Some kind of purchasing power i assume?
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  • #934,100
  • Nov 7, 2014 2:40am Nov 7, 2014 2:40am
Quoting yaed
{quote} What exactly does the left axis represent? Some kind of purchasing power i assume?
the table is a % chart of world's holding of reserve currency....
before euro came in.... Deutsche mark was the 2nd reserve currency after the US..... and the fact deutschmark level is so close to what it is Euro now.... tells me Euro and Deutsche Mark are similar.
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