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EURUSD

  • #934,061
  • Nov 6, 2014 6:58pm Nov 6, 2014 6:58pm
as seen here 1.2525 was perfect area for shorts
ADX was picking up meaning it was beginning to trend. And bears were driving the trend move.
And 1.2525 was previous support turned resistance, as soon as we broke below, it was a good game
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Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 184 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #934,062
  • Nov 6, 2014 7:22pm Nov 6, 2014 7:22pm
1st target hit on EURUSD @ 1.2393 but still holding on to my short... IMO I believe it will go lower... but keep an eye for tomorrow....
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #934,063
  • Edited 9:27pm Nov 6, 2014 7:29pm | Edited 9:27pm
⤴ Next dip 3:17am GMT 03:20 ok extend or get off the pot!
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #934,064
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:22pm Nov 6, 2014 9:22pm
Quoting yaed
{quote} Top left corner of the youtube clip you posted, also the name of the studio and the commercial stuff in the clip.
I understand it's a studio working in collaboration with M-Tv, but I post songs from there only because they are of good quality and presentable to international community. Most songs from these developing countries are either too inferior in quality or are marred with annoying cheap commercials, the ones from Coke Studio are better in quality. Many years ago, I worked for a media company that was topmost firm in the country, we established a quality studio in that developing country and produced many good plays and commercials. I sometimes wonder how come this commercial was created by some other agency, Enjoy

Inserted Video
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #934,065
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:36pm Nov 6, 2014 9:36pm
Ascending triangle
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #934,066
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:39pm Nov 6, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting suthmo
Ascending triangle
Yes, and a Baba Ganoush
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #934,067
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:51pm Nov 6, 2014 9:51pm
Let er rip, it's time. Express elevator to sell, going down.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #934,068
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:52pm Nov 6, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting suthmo
Let er rip it's time express elevator to sell.
Simple English please, I am from Mars and not from Bronx.

Here is one of my wives:

http://www.techchee.com/wp-content/u...ien-220108.jpg
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #934,069
  • Nov 6, 2014 9:58pm Nov 6, 2014 9:58pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Yes, and a Baba Ganoush
Veggie bbq! Brings back horrible memories of 4th of July on Atkins!
Attached Image
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #934,070
  • Nov 6, 2014 10:01pm Nov 6, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Simple English please, I am from Mars and not from Bronx.
Let Her Rip

Woah woah woah, dudes are from Mars I thought?
SHE's A MAN! Sorry K she's a man.
Attached Images
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #934,071
  • Edited Nov 12, 2014 1:37am Nov 6, 2014 10:17pm | Edited Nov 12, 2014 1:37am
Someone saying im not sharing my analysis, sooo might as well share the analysis i did for work.

Dear all,
Please refer to the attached file in relation to this article.
Due to recent weakness in the EURO spurred by potential easing stance taken by ECB, Hinting at a possible economic revitalization plan by Juncker,
I have decided to conduct a long term analysis on the EURUSD.
Let me begin by explain what the chart shows
on one hand a Monthly EURUSD chart over a stretch of 30 years with a 200(SMA) plotted in pink
in comparison to the US 30Y swap rate plotted in Yellow, the 30 Y swap is directly affected by the benchmark fed fund rate....
Here is my view....
Pre-2008 Crisis, prior to US beginning to ease its monetary policy to ensure investor confidence... US have been trading against the EURO where we see EURUSD below parity. those were the overheated times of the bull market experienced in US.
when 2008 crisis hit, US has lowered interest rates and printed money to help the calm the economy and to help the economy recover, accounting for EURUSD trading above the 200(SMA), and as 2008 progressed onwards. both US and Europe have been easing their monetary policy in tandem, keeping EURUSD trading above that 200(SMA) pink line, every time EURO area had bad news the US would also have similarly bad news, This is due to the "Global Economy" fears theme...

However i have reasons to believe EURUSD finally go below the 200(SMA) pink line and stay trading below it for atleast 1 -2 years time....
here are the reasons why:

1. Despite SNB pegging their currency to their EURO, their consistent purchase of EURO to hold the peg is now under doubts whether the SNB still think that this is a viable solution, in the past SNB pegs is not a rare incident, but every single time they peg with something, it always falls apart after few years time, especially when they pegged to something that depletes their balance sheet value.

2. from 2008 onwards, US easing and Europe easing take action in tandem to each other. keeping EURUSD trading above 200(SMA) on the monthly chart, creating a good support there....
However as we head to a period where USD normalization would begin to see US tightening of monetary policy, Dollar value will begin to appreciate meanwhile Eurozone is not anywhere near the same situation as the US in terms of economic growth and recovery for them to raise rates and tighten monetary policy in tandem to US. in fact Europe is facing early signs of their economy following the path of its Japanese Counter part (more below).

3. Europe and Japan's economic backdrop is beginning to see signs of similarity, a) delfationary pressure, b) low growth, c) increasing sovereign debts, d )aging population e) continuous fund flow out at at low rates and poor investor confidence...

4. If Europe and Japan is similar, would Europe wait 3 lost decades before taking action or will they take action before its too late to convince investors otherwise?

5. Debates are that EURUSD will not trade below parity simply because a lot of European firms will collapse.... though this maybe true, look back to Japan... when Japan's economy began to depreciate on appreciating Yen value.... Japanese Factories and big japanese exporting firm began to relocate factories and production to US, does it sound familiar? big european car manufacturers are already seeing factories established in US now..... Fiat, vauxhall, mercedes? versus the japanese car manufactures, toyota, nissan, mitsubishi (they all have factories in US).....
so if EUR continues to remain stronger than the US, we will see some european factories relocate away...

6. the Oil debate.... US produce enough oil to sustain itself, they dont need to export their oil out, especially not at the price of where it is right now who would want to sell their oil at rock bottom price where it is now??

7. US is probably selling their Oil reserves simply to mess with Putin, and tilt the sanction war towards the west's favor... but that simply means they have the ability to produce more than enough oil for themselves to sustain themselves and even enough to flood the market with oil to push price down to prove a political point.....

8. US remains a net importer rather than a net exporter.... US is still going to benefit from strong dollar. (Something China will become in 5-10 years time as China economy shifts to a domestic demand growth model rather than export growth, so yes i expect RMB to appreciate too...)
Anyways if we start to see Swap tilt upwards, i will not be surprised to see EURUSD head for parity....

Please also refer to this article.　
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldm...parity-2014-9/
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #934,072
  • Nov 6, 2014 10:57pm Nov 6, 2014 10:57pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Someone saying im not sharing my analysis, sooo might as well share the analysis i did for work. Dear all, Please refer to the attached file in relation to this article..... {image}
Great stuff bro, really appreciate it
That which does not kill us makes us stronger
  • #934,073
  • Nov 6, 2014 11:11pm Nov 6, 2014 11:11pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Simple English please, I am from Mars and not from Bronx. Here is one of my wives: {image}
She's Hawt, denser bones, night vision, 1400 cc Brain case, Better foot design. How much for your wife?
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #934,074
  • Nov 6, 2014 11:36pm Nov 6, 2014 11:36pm
Quoting HareshBM
expecting EURUSD to drift lower from current levels. waiting for a break below 1.2500 for confirmation of a dip towards 1.2250. Upside seems capped below 1.2650.
expecting EURUSD to rebound till 1.2410 odd levels and provide a chance to initiate fresh short positions and aim for 1.2330 and 1.2240...
  • #934,075
  • Nov 6, 2014 11:56pm Nov 6, 2014 11:56pm
Hello everyone,

I am a new kid on the block, hope you guys don't mind me joining in the party, more importantly I would like to get some guidance or tips on the EURO. It is low at the moment and has not been going anywhere. Should we wait for it to pull back to a certain level or just start shorting some now at this lever 1.27xx ?

I know there is no definite answer, let make it a poll or voice your honest and best opinion.

Thanks.
Forate
  • #934,076
  • Nov 7, 2014 12:07am Nov 7, 2014 12:07am
Quoting fxtyrant
Someone saying im not sharing my analysis, sooo might as well share the analysis i did for work. Dear all, Please refer to the attached file in relation to this article. Due to recent weakness in the EURO spurred by potential easing stance taken by ECB, Hinting at a possible economic revitalization plan by Juncker, I have decided to conduct a long term analysis on the EURUSD. Let me begin by explain what the chart shows on one hand a Monthly EURUSD chart over a stretch of 30 years with a 200(SMA) plotted in pink in comparison to the US 30Y swap...
Great analysis
  • #934,077
  • Edited 12:23am Nov 7, 2014 12:13am | Edited 12:23am
Meanwhile, guys at forexlive is putting up a great analysis on potentially SNB giving up their peg... just like the British giving up on Linking their currency to deutsch mark.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...november-2014/

If some body is betting on SNB to break the peg. we may actually have a new George Soros born in our generation.
Im guessing it'll be a japanese or a european dude.... borrow yen or euro at low interest rates, then leverage it to the max and sell hard EURCHF to break the peg.

if SNB announced they give up.... shit'll hit the fan fast.... its been coiling up for the past 2-3 years.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #934,078
  • Nov 7, 2014 12:47am Nov 7, 2014 12:47am
Quoting fxtyrant
Meanwhile, guys at forexlive is putting up a great analysis on potentially SNB giving up their peg... just like the British giving up on Linking their currency to deutsch mark. http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...november-2014/ If some body is betting on SNB to break the peg. we may actually have a new George Soros born in our generation. Im guessing it'll be a japanese or a european dude.... borrow yen or euro at low interest rates, then leverage it to the max and sell hard EURCHF...
Placing a Pending order below 1.200 on EURCHF could be a good idea!
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #934,079
  • Nov 7, 2014 12:52am Nov 7, 2014 12:52am
Quoting Lacunoide
{quote} Placing a Pending order below 1.200 on EURCHF could be a good idea!
if EURCHF is gona fall below 1.20 and really fall... its going to fall fast.... so dont put the pending immediately under 1.20, if its not ready to fall, it might spike below 1.20 for a brief moment and you'd be left stuck with a triggered short....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #934,080
  • Edited 1:07am Nov 7, 2014 12:53am | Edited 1:07am
Quoting fxtyrant
Meanwhile, guys at forexlive is putting up a great analysis on potentially SNB giving up their peg... just like the British giving up on Linking their currency to deutsch mark. http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...november-2014/ If some body is betting on SNB to break the peg. we may actually have a new George Soros born in our generation. Im guessing it'll be a japanese or a european dude.... borrow yen or euro at low interest rates, then leverage it to the max and sell hard EURCHF...
...
Talk about soros....
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...rds-deflation/

Soros might become himself yet again..... how much do you guys wana bet hes shorting the EURCHF betting on the peg to breakdown like he did with his first success in the de-peg of GBP and Deutsche marks??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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