Hyperion's Notebook

Projected ranges for this week attached.
Interesting times in the FX markets. The Kiwi, Aussie and Euro all look well supported at the end of last week. This is supported by my Capflow analysis.
However I feel any upward move that results (if any) should be viewed as a bounce that should be sold into. I have no doubt that after such a bounce, my systems will turn and indicate they are a sell again.

I would like to sell Kiwi on a bounce towards 8570 and definitely around 8620.

The EURO bounce could be more severe because of the extreme short positioning. I would target between 1.3520 to 1.37 and a good area to locate shorts.

There are many cross currents at present. On the one hand the global search for yield and NZ is still paying people a handsome carry to buy the Kiwi Dollar.
On the other, there are plenty of fires smouldering around the globe most notably in the Middle East and the Ukraine.
The outcome in the Ukraine is pivotal to world economic growth. Trade wars are never conducive to world growth and if Putin is emboldened in the Ukraine who knows where his ambitions might end (with other post USSR break up Republics). The 23 year trend of economic and market friendly geopolitics is at a fork in the road right now….

A negative view of all this would confirm the top in the Kiwi is in place, send the EURO towards 1.3 and beyond and certainly unwind the Yen carry trade.
I need to monitor sentiment surrounding this.

On the subject of the Yen the USD/JPY longs have held this view now at extreme levels since December 2012 and for the most recent 12 mths have seen the currency basically stay at the same level. Surely “Mrs Watenabe’s” patience has a limit?

This may take several weeks to play out. I need to be patient and wait for my levels.

The long signals in the EUR/USD I think should be taken. My guess is the blue box that appeared last week will be short lived but we'll see.

Important change in Capflow for the Euro as of right now the box has changed from buy to sell.
This pours cold water over all my comments above looking for a bounce but capflow is 85% objective so I can't overlay my own judgement on it.
So now I have to only take sell triggers. I need one more qualifier (like a daily close below 1.3330 for instance) to make it 100% go signal. Maybe even a 4 hrly close there I'll see.

Interestingly I never got the qualifier in the last blue box. I was looking for a successful inside day to the upside and that never came.

Projected Ranges for August Week 4

I think I will use them as trade locations for the buy/sell bias as determined by Capflow.

For instance, if Capflow is Red (sell), I will look for a 4hrly sell trigger in the top third of the projected weekly range for that pair.

No change in Capflow so keep taking Sell triggers in AUD/USD, EUR/USD, XAU/USD, NZD/USD and GBP/USD, Buy triggers in USD/JPY.

Projected Weekly Ranges attachd for Sept Week 2.
Capflow unchanged and views from last week remain.
I will use the PR as a guide to locate my trades while taking the appropriate trigger based on the Capflow bias.

Projected ranges and graphic attached. Capflow hasn’t changed, keep taking Sell triggers in NZD/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD, Buy triggers in USD/JPY.

However there is a risk of a GBP rally if the “Yes” vote fails, mind you the Pound has been weakening due to a strong USD… maybe the Joker in the market will sell the Pound after any relief rally?

The EUR/USD Capflow signal strength has dwindled to the point where any strong day in the NY session will turn it from Sell to Neutral
(maybe Buy if we get two strong days)

This makes it hard to know whether to stick with shorts or not. I would say if we get a daily close above 1.2990 all short bets are off. I will also monitor it on a 4 hourly basis. I hope there will be some more definitive price action later this week which makes things clearer.

Capflow change in EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has changed from Red (sell mode) to neutral. It will turn Blue (Buy mode) if we get any kind of buying activity in the NY session tonight.
A 4 hrly close above 1.2980 would make me want to exit any remaining shorts. Some price action through the 4 hrly down trend line would make me want to start taking long triggers (assuming that coincides with a Blue Capflow reading). It’s tricky but turns/changes are always like this.
Only a daily close below 1.2880 will mean the downtrend continues I believe.

I Like most Yen crosses downside ATM

Also like Buying GBP/JPY 177.20 Put for 2 weeks with 174.90 Knock out. 22 pips.
Add sell stop for spot just under the market.

Super trigger happy on selling USD/JPY

AUD/JPY target reached. maybe heading to the 161% level. Too bad I'm out.
Still hold USD/JPY 108.05 Puts with 105.90 Knock outs cost 20 pips.
Also GBP/JPY Puts, 177 with 175 K/O, cost 20 pips.

Here's a thought. Some Dude put $10 on a string of six horses in Oz over the weekend. They all came in and the end payoff was over $430k. Yes that's a K after that number.

I wonder if I can get a string of Reverse Knock Outs to work 4 or 5 in a row. (2.5k cost, then 10k, 50k, 250k, 1.25 mill... hehehe)

Hi Hyperion!

I would just like to check with you if you are actually referring to JP Steidlmayer's work when you imply on CapFlow. As far as I know, there are 3 evolutions of Market Profile, and CapFlow is one of them.

FYI I like your FF screenname =) Because it reminded me of something that is pretty cool and is an inside and harmless joke between a friend and me (nothing to do with you thou).

Well sort of. Not to split hairs, JPS last evolution that I know of was labelled "Capital Flow Software". What I call "Capflow" is the output or result (as calculated by me) of the collation of one of his versions (the oldest one knowing me!).

Hyperion was chosen as a handle for an really dumb online game I started playing many years ago because it was the name of a Titan in Greek mythology. I have been told it was an amazing race horde in the U.S. too.... I have just kept it. Can't imagine how you could frame a joke around it though ?!

I looked at Capital Flow Software once. I think it's an amazing tool in the right hands. JPS is a generous genius and I think most poeple make the mistake of trying to force his insights into a system rather than using the knowledge to strengthen their understanding of the market.

I see... The reason why I am interested is because I make my own tools; I create my own dynamic range bar and dynamic swing indicator. I am looking towards creating more independent tools in order to make my analysis more complete and accurate. To get my current tools 'right', it does take quite awhile, plus this also means looking at what others have done so far.

Ray Barros uses his swings patterns with with Market Profile, in order to determine the true POC in a ranging market. I've learned a lot from his work and reproduced and traded using it with good success. But I do think my trading preferences forced me to create better tools than what is currently (publicly) available, namely Market Profile (all 3 evolutions), Horizontal Volume and JChart

I do appreciate the value it brings, but I do have some 'problems' with it, which IMO Ray Barros did solve it from his POV. He intergrated Market Profile into an overall system and recently release it as Ultimate Methodology, to the point I see that it is a nice balance of mechanical and discretionary ; termed discretionary rule-based method.

http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/qa-th...line-3199.html
http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/the-e...file-1420.html
http://www.barrometrics.com/opening-...ystem-video-3/

I do have a philosophy (developed over time as a trader and programmer) regarding what I am specifically looking for; indicators that assist the trader to find patterns with a solid edge, without losing market context, plus resistance to market changes. That's a high order I suppose, and I do think Market Profile has the capability to do that. The most difficult part lies in attempting something similar to what Ray has succeeded as stated above; overall system integration. It means I have the following choices ...
1-take the Market Profile as it is
2-adjust the Market Profile
3-come up with a totally different tool, but acknowledge the evolution came from ideas of Market Profile

I was telling my friend who is also an FF member, that you might want to 'update your profile picture', so that it matches your screen name. I do not know if the current picture that you have now has any relationship to your screenname thou. A similar inside joke succeeded on another FF member, who actually gladly took the 'updated' profile picture as a gift, as he actually wanted to get it updated all along anyway. You know who you are =D

Here's the 'joke'; since you did play online games years back... both of us are kind of calculating the odds if you actually are aware of Starcraft =d My friend said the odds are 26%; I have no idea where he pulled that number from lol.

http://starcraft.wikia.com/wiki/Hyperion
... and hence, a suitable 'updated' profile picture might just be... Jim Raynor =)
Jim Raynor in Starcraft 1
http://i60.tinypic.com/5vyfyu.png

http://i57.tinypic.com/52x2xi.png

Jim Raynor in Starcraft 2
http://i57.tinypic.com/1jsy7d.jpg
He's cute, I admit that lol, at least in SC1, before what happened to Kerrigan... in SC2 he became way too drunk for my liking, although the husky humor remains.

I have always found in every book I've every read about trading there is one or two gold nuggets that are the only takeaways I needed.
For JPS (after a complete understanding of his objective definitions) I found them in his VERY first book and his last. New Discoeveries I think it was called. He wrote it with his daughter. For me it it the best trading book ever (and probably the shortest).

Below is a shot of his Capital Flow Software FYG.

P.S. That Hyperion is not me . Different game...

That's nice... I would look more into this. Thank you.

Awww haha... =)

Oops Deutschmark contract... showing my age there.

Update on GBP/JPY from above. Knocked out of the Put Options last week. Close short spot here. Look at short EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY.

US$ sentiment might be at an extreme here and that coupled with charts like below make me want to look at Short US$ views.
DXY up under strong over head resistance, USD/CHF same with a great looking double top. Thanks Mr Abe for pouring egg on my face, possible sell stop entry below as well.