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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #1,481
  • Nov 4, 2014 1:55pm Nov 4, 2014 1:55pm
forex_fairy

I have a simplistic approach that says if there is no trend, go to another chart.

You have picked a ranging market to analyze and there is so many posts that say do not feed the alligator.. if those lines are close together and you enter a trade, for sure you will get eaten.

This is a trend following system 'no slope - stay out'
  • #1,482
  • Nov 4, 2014 2:06pm Nov 4, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting Forex37
I`m afraid, you completely misunderstood the system!!!!! The fractals are NOT indicators, don`t point anywhere. They are just the indicating the last low or last high. And the method teaches to NOT trade, but set a pending order with due distance to this fractal. So for the blue circled fractal (which is only indicated after the following two candles have finished) you should have placed a pending SELL order a few pips below the low of that candle (the one that shows the blue circle). You would place that order at the same time when the third following...

I didn't actually put in any orders. I was observing it. OK but what about the awesome oscillator?

It points downwards but price moves upwards.

If you observe it you can see i have a sell order instead of a buy and you look at the awesome oscillator it moves downwards red getting bigger. it's supposed to be a sell but price moves up instead.

Ok according to what they teach when you see a fractal point out that is outside of the alligator teeth the red line you can either buy or sell but it's like 1 pip above. Isn't that what is taught. You see the one circled in red. It's pointing downwards. You can put in a sell because everything clicks. The awesome oscillator is moving downwards it all indicates a sell but you can see price moving upwards so if you put in a sell below that fractal circled in red you would be in a losing position.

Ok about the one circled in blue. Yes the pending sell below would be ok. It wouldn't hit until 7 days later. You can count the candles 6 candles above the pending sell on the candle with the fractal pointing down. Price then shoots past downwards that's ok just a long wait.

The one in red doesn't make sense. I need to repeat this because there's something wrong. Fractal pointing downwards. OK it's supposed to be a pending sell below but i can see the candles afterwards didn't do below that fractal line.

All right that's an open trade from last friday. It's a continuning sell. That means it was shooting downwards last week. I was selling. I put in a sell stop there last week as an added on position. I think on the 23 i saw a fractal pointing downwards and i wanted to add on. I don't recall exactly.

Anyway the awesome oscialltor is pointing downwards not upwards so it's still wrong since price is moving in an opposite direction from it.
  • #1,483
  • Nov 4, 2014 2:11pm Nov 4, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting Blaiserboy
forex_fairy I have a simplistic approach that says if there is no trend, go to another chart. You have picked a ranging market to analyze and there is so many posts that say do not feed the alligator.. if those lines are close together and you enter a trade, for sure you will get eaten. This is a trend following system 'no slope - stay out'

Ok the blue fractal cirlced was in a ranging market because the alligator jaws are shut but the one circled in red the jaws are open it's a trending market right? The AO is moving. Let me post it again. Can you explain to me how it is ranging when the alligator jaws are open and the AO is increasing. The fractal circled in red

http://i.imgur.com/OXTG7GZ.jpg
  • #1,484
  • Dec 9, 2014 9:57pm Dec 9, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} Ok the blue fractal cirlced was in a ranging market because the alligator jaws are shut but the one circled in red the jaws are open it's a trending market right? The AO is moving. Let me post it again. Can you explain to me how it is ranging when the alligator jaws are open and the AO is increasing. The fractal circled in red {image}

i dont think u understand about fractals.. the pointing arrow IS NOT a sign that show whether market will going up or down. You are now align with what bill william said "Follow what the market wants.. not what you want the market to be".

Fractals act as well as a support and resistance line for your to trigger buy or sell.. if you want to buy or sell you wanna to refer fractals for the pending order price.
Novice Trader
  • #1,485
  • Dec 28, 2014 1:59am Dec 28, 2014 1:59am
I think I'm going to resurrect this thread at the start of the year. Should I do it?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,486
  • Dec 28, 2014 1:46pm Dec 28, 2014 1:46pm
I am a Fractal Junky. There are a few You Tube Videos online where Bill Williams explains his Chaos Method of trading. The "Holy Grail" is the best one.
It explains what a fractal is and how they are formed. Now, I have taken his knowledge and the research that he paid to have done about the market, and added my own perks. I've thrown is some VSA , Some knowledge about Euro Trading Levels for Breakouts, and Added the Fibonacci Levels to my approach at trading. It is quiet impressive.
A Fractal is nothing more than a Behavioral change in the Market. Smart Money( high volume candles) is what makes the Fractal's behavior change. That change in behavior is headed somewhere, but where? It is headed to a Fib Level that the Market Makers and Smart Money have in mind , that's where.
There are 4 basic levels that the Euro Market Makers and Smart Money use as Breakout areas. They are associated in the last 2 digits of the Euro Price, for example 1.2100,1.2120,1.2150,1.2180. The last 2 digits 00-20-50-80. These areas are where you will find the magical Fractal and Breakouts. Repainting Fractals have nothing to do with anything , concerning a potential trade!!! All is based on SR levels and volume and where the price is headed.
Unless you understand what a Fractal represents and why they are on your chart, you are just lost.
I might add that the 21 EMA level is an essential point of concern and a Line in the Sand. A lot of decision making goes on when the currency price is at that level. A trend is usually established at that point, although the prices don't normally wonder to far away from that line in the sand. These Breakout are usually good for 30-80 pips on a 1 hour chart and take 5-6 hours to climax. I'm the conservative type, and usually take profit in the 30-40 pip range(2-3 hrs), with only a 15-20 SL in place. It gives me a 1:1.5 ratio, although it probably works out to be more like a 3:1 .
I trade a live account, wouldn't do it if I couldn't make money. I have traded Demo account and researched endless hours for the magical Indicators or an EA that would make some money. It's not out there Folks. It has to be in your Brain. You have to know what these Rascals are up to at all times. The trading does come easy now. I just set a Take Profit and a Stop Loss using 2% of my money trading a .15 lot for now and bring in a couple of trades a day, with very few losing trades. My Nest Egg will grow, but I really don't thing I have the nerve to trade anything more than a .5 lot size, regardless of my Bank Account size.A hundred Dollar Bill on the Stop Loss would be just about all I would what to surrender on any given trade. Still, at $5 pips and 50-60 pips / day, that will render @200-$300/day x21 days,-apprx. 30% tax with holding.
  • #1,487
  • Dec 28, 2014 2:01pm Dec 28, 2014 2:01pm
One other thing. I don't use the Awesome or Accelerator , or the Gator Indicator. Waste of time. Lagging Indicators. You need current info, such as volume(ticks) and the destination of the train( Fib Lines) your on in real time. Forget everything else. I do use a RSI set At 10 and crossing at 35-50-65 levels for reassurance purposes.
Gotta no how and where to place a Fib setup from the Left of the Chart. Good Luck to Ya all.
  • #1,488
  • Dec 28, 2014 2:10pm Dec 28, 2014 2:10pm
Correctio!!!!! No magic indicators... understanding price action is the way to rewards.

I do use some of the BW indicators, probably from habit.
  • #1,489
  • Jan 3, 2015 12:51am Jan 3, 2015 12:51am
The first book I bought was Trading Chaos. I was a rank newbie. I bought the whole chaos thing.

Then, I bought NTD. Again, I was amazed. But THEN I found out the AO and AC was a just a MACD split into histogram form. I was so pissed off that I threw the whole thing in the trash. Slowly I continued to evolve, until I reached bar by bar proficiency. Then an amazing thing happened.

I realized that I had seen it all before!

Profitunity has got the be one of the corniest bunch of marketing BS ever made by man. But what Bill was trying to do is break price action into bite sized pieces. There is indeed information to be had on every price bar. The trick is putting it together, and making the correct executive decisions to be profitable. In the end the five dimensions, along with the money management have to be made into your own system. I can say with confidence however that bar by bar price action is correctly read with the Profitunity indicators.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,490
  • Jan 3, 2015 12:29pm Jan 3, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting Charismatic
I am a Fractal Junky. There are a few You Tube Videos online where Bill Williams explains his Chaos Method of trading. The "Holy Grail" is the best one. It explains what a fractal is and how they are formed. Now, I have taken his knowledge and the research that he paid to have done about the market, and added my own perks. I've thrown is some VSA , Some knowledge about Euro Trading Levels for Breakouts, and Added the Fibonacci Levels to my approach at trading. It is quiet impressive. A Fractal is nothing more than a Behavioral change in the Market....

very Interesting! hi I am Bomi in Houston. I would like to follow your trades. Do you take your trades on HR1? I usually do that.
  • #1,491
  • Jan 3, 2015 2:34pm Jan 3, 2015 2:34pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproM15.png Size: 134 KB
This is one of my trading charts. It's a 15 min chart. I have attached the Bill William's Market Facilitation Index, There is also a Trend Oscillator that I pick up off the Nihilist Thread. The Purple line is a Kijun Sen support and resistance Indicator. It's a pretty simple method of trade. The key to trading Forex is Patience, something that I sometimes struggle with. You really can read the Market flow with the MFI, once you get familiar with color coding of the bars and what they stand for. Again, you just have to be patient and wait until the Fractal breakout occurs. This is a pretty good trend indicator also, based on the ADX I believe.
  • #1,492
  • Jan 3, 2015 3:33pm Jan 3, 2015 3:33pm
The Kijun Sen line = equals Red Gator line. Simple indicaton of the trend. Only trade with the trend. Price below-Sell, Price above-Buy.
  • #1,493
  • Jan 15, 2015 1:38am Jan 15, 2015 1:38am
I wonder why Profitunity does not attract more attention?

I think it's because Bill Williams expanded his total trading system over three books and two very expensive video series.

Just trying to spark a discussion here. I could easily start another thread, but there is no point in doing that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,494
  • Jan 15, 2015 5:02am Jan 15, 2015 5:02am
Quoting jmn5611
I wonder why Profitunity does not attract more attention? I think it's because Bill Williams expanded his total trading system over three books and two very expensive video series. Just trying to spark a discussion here. I could easily start another thread, but there is no point in doing that.
I think many people still use the system, however, people get tired of a system and try another, and then return.

People look for the holy grail and think it is in the next system, and then they think it is in the next system and so on.

Myself, I use some of the indicators and do not like the others.

I automated the system using some weird combinations on alligator and awesome , the thing works well.....

I am sure that if you post some charts on a regular basis that you will have some comments, getting the traffic started is the hurdle.
  • #1,495
  • Jan 15, 2015 12:43pm Jan 15, 2015 12:43pm
Quoting Blaiserboy
{quote} I think many people still use the system, however, people get tired of a system and try another, and then return. People look for the holy grail and think it is in the next system, and then they think it is in the next system and so on. Myself, I use some of the indicators and do not like the others. I automated the system using some weird combinations on alligator and awesome , the thing works well..... I am sure that if you post some charts on a regular basis that you will have some comments, getting the traffic started is the hurdle.
That's exactly what I did. For no good reason. Just got bored. One fine day I remembered that everything I was using I had seen before. So I returned to the source. I agree that most people today using some part of BW, if only just the fractals.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,496
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:55pm Mar 3, 2015 9:55pm
Quoting jmn5611
I wonder why Profitunity does not attract more attention? I think it's because Bill Williams expanded his total trading system over three books and two very expensive video series. Just trying to spark a discussion here. I could easily start another thread, but there is no point in doing that.
All Bills signals repaint except the Fractal which isnt really his signal to begin with.
That being said his wave count theory when used with other methods can produce profitable insights.
However, in trading "those who cant do teach." I think this applies to these folks.
  • #1,497
  • May 6, 2015 10:08pm May 6, 2015 10:08pm
I just read and implement the Bill Williams Theory based on his book <Trading Chaos> Second Edition, in this book he introduce the Alligator, Divergent Bar, Awesome Oscillator, and Fractal.

To Be honest, I have read about the alligator indicator, how this indicator in the trending environment can get a lot of profit but then I have never really into it, instead I use another method and Indicator, DMI, ADX, Stoch, Moving Average Cross, etc. After some journey and adventures and losses after losses, I start using Moving Average Cross over, my first setup is SMA 13 and SMA 5 and using M30 and H1, at first it quite profitable and then the ranging market coming in, the signal start to be shaggy and false signal comes in alot. Therefore I add another Base line MA using SMA 60, so if price is below SMA 60 it is down trend and only take sell signal from SMA13 and SMA 5 Cross. IF Price above SMA 60 I only take Buy Signal.
From this second method it work quite well also for sometimes, and then I notice.. this system also create losses, the reason is... IF the market create a high bound range that is swinging above and below SMA 60 (The Baseline MA) the signal created from SMA13 and SMA5 cross becomes invalid, because the price fluctuate so high and MA is just to slow to adapt. I Start adding another and another baseline MA...thus making me sick just to look at the monitor.
The reason of my losses is I can't see where the real trend is, and the most important thing I enter using Market Execution, so when the price move fast, I jump in on the wagon without second thought, and after that the price reverse (False Breakout).

Alligator help determine the trend, and avoid ranging market, and Bill Williams Method helps on preventing impulsive trading because his system mostly using Stop Order. My Guess is by using stop order, B.W Implement the momentum of the market, so if we put Stop Order, the market have a power or force and the will to reach higher or Lower.

Image in the attachment is my current setup. just for your reference.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 20 KB
  • #1,498
  • May 7, 2015 3:58am May 7, 2015 3:58am
Quoting Sywa
I just read and implement the Bill Williams Theory based on his book <Trading Chaos> Second Edition, in this book he introduce the Alligator, Divergent Bar, Awesome Oscillator, and Fractal. To Be honest, I have read about the alligator indicator, how this indicator in the trending environment can get a lot of profit but then I have never really into it, instead I use another method and Indicator, DMI, ADX, Stoch, Moving Average Cross, etc. After some journey and adventures and losses after losses, I start using Moving Average Cross over, my first...
What was the entry trigger on that chart?

I guess with 0.01 you didn't lose much; I don't see the stop loss?

Thanks, John
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,499
  • May 7, 2015 8:44pm May 7, 2015 8:44pm
Yeah, I don't use bigger lot since this is testing, if I'm feeling good and discipline I will increase the Lot

The entry on that chart is based on another technical analysis using Fibonacci Fan Retracement, I closed the trade soon after get profit and reading the AUD Bad news about the Employment.

here is today chart for AUD JPY, the entry is using SELL STOP on the fractal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 20 KB
  • #1,500
  • Jul 12, 2015 4:43am Jul 12, 2015 4:43am
Hello everyone!

I've read all three of Bill Williams' books and I'm making some nice profits already, although I'm still learning and making some mistakes.

Now I have a question for all of you guys who use this system. In New Trading Dimensions the first signal to take is the fractal and after this you take all signals in that direction. Then in Trading Chaos 2 you use a divergent bar as your first signal and add on with the AO and the fractal. The question is, being your very first entry a divergent bar, do you add on with all of the signals explained in both books (saucer, AC, Zone etc) or only with the Super AO and Fractal? Do you trade with the books as being two different trading methods or do you combine everything together?

Thank you!
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