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  • #161
  • Nov 3, 2014 4:01am Nov 3, 2014 4:01am
U/J keeps on keeping on.
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Money Makes Money
  • #162
  • Nov 3, 2014 4:12am Nov 3, 2014 4:12am
[quote=gspajon;7796067.. (as a side note I am using this thread to gather data on the hit rate for the 2nd target...but that will take some time). For now I have solid data from live forward trading on the hit rate for the signals and characteristics of the signals I will be trading here. No big secrets or "sexy" predictions...just simple - uncomplicated - OBVIOUS trading {image} {image}[/quote]
Hi GS. What do you mean by "The 2nd target" ??
Money Makes Money
  • #163
  • Nov 3, 2014 4:28am Nov 3, 2014 4:28am
Keep an eye on Eur/Aud. It has the potential for an excellent long term trade.
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Money Makes Money
  • #164
  • Edited 5:19am Nov 3, 2014 5:05am | Edited 5:19am
The interest in this one for me is September's bullish outside bar (monthly) despite the lower low. There seem to be many candidates between 1.3750 and 1.41 that have acted as both support and resistance so that appears to be more of a zone than a fixed level although the 50% fib retracement from the 2012 lows to the recent highs sits neatly there.

From a weekly standpoint after the descent from 1.59 area we have just managed a higher high which puts it firmly on my watch list for a dip and a possible entry bar.
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  • #165
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:13am Nov 3, 2014 5:13am
Quoting ken911
Hi gspajon. Nice call on the USCAD. Hope you made your target.
Not Quite yet Ken...but still holding long with a break even stop
  • #166
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:17am Nov 3, 2014 5:17am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hi GS. What do you mean by "The 2nd target" ??
two targets representing roughly the risk I am initially taking in the market when I enter. Example if target #1 = 100 pips and my hit rate to that target is 80% of the time, I would like to know what percent of those trades that make the first target go on to hit twice as much. In this example 200 pips. I suspect it is a far lower number, my gut tells me about 40% or less. But I want to know so I can calculate my probability holding on to a trade a little longer and see if it will increase or reduce overall performance. Understand?
  • #167
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:36am Nov 3, 2014 5:36am
KiwiOz and nbfx; your charts show the dichotomy of multiple time frames and how many people (including myself) become confused. KiwiOz is pointing out a long (at least I think he is) and highlighting a bullish flag. But has not accounted for what appears to be to be a lower low on the daily chart. This is a difficult call to make as the previous low wasn't really a retrace as much as it was a pause and range before continuing. This kind of thing makes chart analaysis confusing and difficult to understand at times...which is why I try to look for something more obvious.

The same can be said for the monthly chart pointed out by nbfx. He has several lower highs pointed out but the most recent comes after a retrace (as opposed to a pause or range). Therefore I would look at this monthly chart and say the most recent high is a lower high which followed a new lower low. The Bullish engulfer marked the end of the last leg down and price is now rejoining a new bearish trend.

This is a "do or die" situation for this pair. In my opinion, IF price continues down, a new bearish trend is confirmed. This is made more powerful by the fact that it is a monthly chart...however, IF price moves higher breaking the last high, I would consider it a possible range (on the monthly chart) and look for price to be "sucked up" to the top quickly where I would look for it to stall again as trader decide where value is.

I don't normally look at this pair, but if I was trading this I would watch for a lower high to form on the daily chart and then take that signal short. If in fact a HIGHER high forms...I would stand aside and wait for a new higher low for the next entry...

Clear as mud?

It appears to me that this pair is confused...and thus I am too...thus I would probably just wait. It is certainly NOT obvious to me...
  • #168
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:46am Nov 3, 2014 5:46am
I will say that this thread has been insightful for me. I already take on a simple/obvious trading methodology based on engulfing bars. However, the type of bars I've been looking at have been those where the open and close of the "signal bar" engulfs the open and close of the previous bar. But if you, gspajon, have taken nearly a decade to personally verify the validity of the "range engulfing bar" (calling it this for a lack of better term) then I will definitely incorporate those into my trading plan.

Thanks again for this awesome thread.
  • #169
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:57am Nov 3, 2014 5:57am
Quoting Mr_D1
I will say that this thread has been insightful for me. I already take on a simple/obvious trading methodology based on engulfing bars. However, the type of bars I've been looking at have been those where the open and close of the "signal bar" engulfs the open and close of the previous bar. But if you, gspajon, have taken nearly a decade to personally verify the validity of the "range engulfing bar" (calling it this for a lack of better term) then I will definitely incorporate those into my trading plan. Thanks again for this awesome thread.
Thank you for your confidence...but I don't feel I deserve it. My "definition" of an engulfing bar is really quite simple. It is:

  1. Higher high than previous bar
  2. Lower low than previous bar
  3. Bullish = Close > Open and Close in upper 30% of total range
  4. Bearish = Close < Open and Close in lower 30% of total range

I just made that as an arbitrary rule then started gathering stats on whether or not that signal produced results...

Again its hit rate (to the first target) is 80% or better IN THE PRESENCE OF A TREND. Not against the trend but WITH the trend. I always take these signals as the rejoin a trend after a retrace to a "logical" support or resistance area. How you define "logical" is up to you...how you define trend is up to you.

I would not dare to presume that my definition is better or worse than those definitions found in text references or what you know from experience to be true. But this has worked best for me. As an example, you can clearly see that in Gold on the weekly chart a Bullish engulfing bar failed...but it was against the underlying trend...

  • #170
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:59am Nov 3, 2014 5:59am
Thanks GS. I can see exactly where you are coming from.
  • #171
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:08am Nov 3, 2014 6:08am
Quoting gspajon
KiwiOz and nbfx; your charts show the dichotomy of multiple time frames and how many people (including myself) become confused. KiwiOz is pointing out a long (at least I think he is) and highlighting a bullish flag. But has not accounted for what appears to be to be a lower low on the daily chart. This is a difficult call to make as the previous low wasn't really a retrace as much as it was a pause and range before continuing. This kind of thing makes chart analaysis confusing and difficult to understand at times...which is why I try to look for...
Your quite right & maybe I should have qualified my post by pointing out what was obvious to me. I did say it was a "potential" trade.
So long as price rises above the last high at 1.5795 & does not drop below 1.3770 I will be looking to go long to around 1.8500. However if price drops I would be looking for "parity" although at present I see no set up to support that scenario.
I understand what you are saying & appreciate your insight.
As for your 2nd target dilemma, I guess first you must have a system of detecting targets & then you must have faith in that system. It also depends on your time frame at the time & whether you 2nd target is a wave 3 or 5.
Hope this helps.
Money Makes Money
  • #172
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:24am Nov 3, 2014 6:24am
Quoting KiwiOz
...As for your 2nd target dilemma, I guess first you must have a system of detecting targets & then you must have faith in that system. It also depends on your time frame at the time & whether you 2nd target is a wave 3 or 5. Hope this helps.
It is not a matter of "faith" for me it is just raw data that I lack. I already know that statistically speaking, the method will make money, that is not faith, it is mathematical certainty. However, I wish to now begin maximizing that edge by taking advantage of momentum that is clear on charts...like in my USD/JPY trade, that clearly would've hit 2xR and its now on its way to 3xR.

I want to know what percent of winning trade hit those marks...2xR; 3xR; 4xR...etc. That way I have some data to rely on and can make a plan to adjust position sizing and scale out points that will maximize profits while keeping risk at or near the same as I am using now. (On a percent basis).

I am not a "believer" in elliot waves so wave 3 or wave 5 or wave whatever, has no meaning for me. I turned away from studying elliot waves when I saw that even within the same community there was disagreement as to where one begins counting and what constitutes a "wave"..etc...too confusing and not necessary. Remember, Simple and Obvious is my theme.
  • #173
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:35am Nov 3, 2014 6:35am
Thanks for sharing gspajon. I've been capitalizing on the same trades with exception of the usdcad. Much appreciated!
Cheston Bulgin
  • #174
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:58am Nov 3, 2014 6:58am
If it's any help. I've long since traded two 'lots'. One to take quickly at 1xR and one to run until it get's killed trailing the stop behind the previous H/L. when I'm doing this I don't move my stop until the next following H/L is in place and then move to behind that. Keep adding on the dips/rallies in the same way and quickly build sizable positions that are 'payed for' by this feeding in process. I don't have to be right very often in order to make money...

What I lack is your precision.....
  • #175
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:09am Nov 3, 2014 7:09am
Quoting nbfx
If it's any help. I've long since traded two 'lots'. One to take quickly at 1xR and one to run until it get's killed trailing the stop behind the previous H/L. when I'm doing this I don't move my stop until the next following H/L is in place and then move to behind that. Keep adding on the dips/rallies in the same way and quickly build sizable positions that are 'payed for' by this feeding in process. I don't have to be right very often in order to make money... What I lack is your precision.....
I used to do that exact same thing...but found it does't work as well as just setting a limit based on the best set of data you can have...then letting the chips fall...sometimes I wish I would hold longer...like USD/JPY, but often times it will hit the limit and that's it...

I just need to know the stats...something I am gathering now...and it will probably take another decade.
  • #176
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:40am Nov 3, 2014 7:40am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting gspajon
{quote} ...and it will probably take another decade.
lol...You're probably right about another decade. I know you're taking this yen movement tough. As am I. I feel I've left money on the table & I have. It's tough to look at. Moves like that don't come along all the time. Our rules of engagement might have cut our profits a 'bit' short & left some cheddar on the table. Rules also keep hard earned money in our accounts when trades work against us & sometimes at the end of the day those types of decisions will keep us in the black. Shake it off & keep doing what you're doing.
  • #177
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:44am Nov 3, 2014 7:44am
Quoting eggs
{quote} lol...You're probably right about another decade. I know you're taking this yen movement tough. As am I. I feel I've left money on the table & I have. It's tough to look at. Moves like that don't come along all the time. Our rules of engagement might have cut our profits a 'bit' short & left some cheddar on the table. Rules also keep hard earned money in our accounts when trades work against us & sometimes at the end of the day those types of decisions will keep us in the black. Shake it off & keep doing what you're doing.
Very Encouraging!! Thank you eggs. You are absolutely right. Its very difficult NOT to just jump in...but I know that's what causes losses that take away all my gains...

I'll keep on...keeping on.
  • #178
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:57am Nov 3, 2014 7:57am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
We like simple, uncomplicated, & obvious. You'll struggle to find a more obvious direction of price than the three Yen crosses below.

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The fundamental drivers are in place for continuation on all 3 of these. If you missed getting in on this move just sit tight & wait for the retrace. It will happen. & You have a very good opportunity for continuation to the upside. Or if you're like me or GS & took the trade but left money on the table & wanna take another bite at this one you'll have the chance. Well placed trades at corresponding FIB levels with signal candles will offer excellent Risk Reward trade opps.

It's not today... & Maybe not tomorrow.... & maybe not even this week. Stay patient, stay vigilant, & take the obvious trade in the right direction when it comes.
  • #179
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:24am Nov 3, 2014 8:24am
Quoting eggs
We like simple, uncomplicated, & obvious. You'll struggle to find a more obvious direction of price than the three Yen crosses below. {image}{image}{image} The fundamental drivers are in place for continuation on all 3 of these. If you missed getting in on this move just sit tight & wait for the retrace. It will happen. & You have a very good opportunity for continuation to the upside. Or if you're like me or GS & took the trade but left money on the table & wanna take another bite at this one you'll have the chance. Well placed trades at corresponding...
You hit the nail on the head with this post. In my opinion, one of the most difficult things to do as a novice trader is to be patient....having the discipline to not attempt to get in on moves like this after the train has already left the station. There is a fine line between trading and gambling. Remember, when gambling, the house always wins. At least with trading, the clearly defined rule set and mastery of those rules is what gives us the edge we need to not only be profitable but to also keep those profits.
  • #180
  • Nov 3, 2014 9:37am Nov 3, 2014 9:37am
1st Target achieved on USD/CAD for 115 pips...nice way to start the week
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