Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading

New Trade Opportunity

USD/CAD:

I think eggs and I are going to end up on opposite side of this trade. Daily chart shows a pretty clear bullish trend. The retrace off the last high has been a very bumpy ride. but it is still producing higher lows and higher highs.

Today formed an inner bar that finished the day at the prior day's close. The prior day's low bounced off the 78.6 % fibo level, and came into the same demand area as the previous low..

Of concern on this set up is the fact that price has closed below the 61.8% fibo level three days in a row...however, to enter this trade price will have to return to yesterday's highs and move higher. the limit on this trade comes in just below the last high.

Eggs has noted a contrary trend movement on the intraday time frames, and has correctly pointed out the waning bullish sentiment on those time frames. However, to trigger this trade, price must make a higher high on the intraday charts. So this is what makes a market huh? Two people look at the same instrument and come to opposing conclusions...both decide to act...one wins the other loses...

My stats tell me of a 76% chance of success (assuming this triggers)...but its not 100%...so...pick your side and place your bets...

As always nice analysis gspajon. It's ironical that you chose this pair as I was just about to post my final thoughts regarding this setup. Initially I had only considered this trade as it was an excellent display of Role Reversals. In this case Old Support had been broken. Role Reversals are an integral function & driver of Price Action. They offer excellent setups when aligned with other confluent factors such as the overall trend & in some cases fundamentals such as yesterdays FED announcement. Follow through is what I was really looking for.

The reason I wanted to return to this setup one more time was to finally put it to bed lol. Although I drank about this one quite a bit I've decided against the trade for a few reasons.

As gspajon has wisely mentioned the setup really lacks structure from a technical perspective. Setups like these are rarely perfect but highly qualifying factors from a trend standpoint do cause reservations about placing a trade.

Primarily speaking though high probability Role Reversal setups like these typically play out in a One & Done type of fashion. The underlying premise is that Old Support is broken & will 'quickly' become new resistance. Instead here, price has 'gathered' around the 1.12 area. It's the gathering & hesitation that ultimately nullify this setup for me. That coupled with other mitigating factors from gspajon's analysis above are keeping me on the sidelines.

Hey GS. I like your thread. I'm not getting at you here, but would you have the same SL on your Gold trades if the account was LIVE & the trades were at 0.10 or higher.??

How's that UJ trade looking GS?.... Shoulda Coulda Woulda....

You were in a sweet spot to hold on to a runner as was I on the AJ... Mine just tagged out at 160 points & I wasn't even on top of it to see it.... Oh well...

EU appears to be continuing it's move South. Methinks wave 4 was in the red square. In again from 1.2644, Targeting 1.2250. I never take a trade without a clear target in my sights.

I'm holding on to mine too man. I've been short since yesterday after the news & I've got targets of 1.2519 in hopes of getting filled. I think we'll see the full 1.2500 handle but I'm not getting greedy lol.

Good luck on your trade KIWIOZ

Hello KiwiOz - All the trades here are duplicated in my live account. I just didn't feel comfortable posting a live account on a public forum...I'm sure you can understand that. To answer you question, YES...assuming the balance of the account was sufficient for a 1% loss. I try to size my trades to that if they lose, it draws down the account 1%.

Admittedly, my yen trades were undersized and should've better balanced this loss...but this not the point of the thread. I mentioned in the beginning that this is the "low hanging fruit" we are after with simple and uncomplicated methods. No predictions, no, "gee whiz look at" that. Just obvious trades that have a beginning and an end.

eggs, yes I suppose I could've hung on to my yen trade...hind sight is always better, but again the point here is discipline. However, I am trying to gather stats on 2xR trades so from now on, I will divide these trade in 1/2 and trade 1xR and 2xR respectively.

Stopped out on XAU/USD (gold).

I had the feeling yesterday, but I placed a stop and reverse at my stop order and have reversed my position. The chart below is a monthly chart...one we rarely look at on this forum. But I think it is significant here as you can see price is breaking through a 2 year floor. I have placed my limit WAY down there and as this is now a monthly trade...this will take a LONG time to complete.

I will be vigilant on the weekly time frame and add into this trade as this trend progresses. Stop is placed at the high of this month's candle. For those that want to follow along...there will be plenty of time. I suspect price will try and retest the bottom of this triangle several times over the next few weeks

Thanks GS. I'm with you Shorting Gold & Silver too. I think your Gold target is achievable. Just a matter of holding the trade through the retraces & adding after each one.

Hello all.

USD/CAD longs have triggered...I placed two orders that have now triggered...I have the first order set as mentioned earlier, which represents roughly 1xR. I will hold a seconds (smaller) position to see if 2xR will hit. I will use the same rules as before just holding the second portion of this trade a little longer.

update EUR/USD

This market has reached the 70% number to take profit. Stop is now moved to break even (+ a few pips)

update on USD/CAD

This pair has also reached 70% of first take profit level...so stops are moved to BE (+)

Very nice setup & trade GS. Good work bud. I wanted the very same entry but had too much exposure on other pairs. Very good week for me. Hope you enjoy your weekend & we'll get back at it on Monday. Peace.

Thank you eggs,

so far not a terrible week. two wins one loss 66% win rate. just need to adjust the position sizing...that is the only reason the account balance is currently negative...but only -$9.

I will post an update shortly after the markets close today...happy halloween!!

I thought I'd expand a little bit on the UCAD. Longer TF analysis really paints a pretty clear picture on the direction of this pair. Not from a speculative perspective but more from a probability standpoint. Quantitatively speaking any trades taken on this pair, in the near term anyways, should be longs. I know GS does not like speculators here & I don't want to spin the analysis with a predictive tone. Matter of fact I'd prefer to keep this analysis on the right track by clarifying any implied direction on this pair is not speculative but quantified as is clearly shown & portrayed on the charts below. It's not my opinion it's what's on the chart that matters.

Lets begin with the MONTHLY chart. I'm sure others here could do a better job outlining the specific fundamentals in place currently driving much of the US Dollars strength across all the majors. As these conditions persist there is much room for a dollar rally on this pair.

The momentum is clearly one sided & this chart is my first example of why the most simple & uncomplicated trade entries would be only longs... Why fight it?



Let's now drop down to the WEEKLY. The recent bull rally really begins to take shape on this TF. Of note is the inside bar setups that are continually breaking to the upside as price closes higher. Oddly enough this week was the first within the recent run to falsely break to the downside. I wouldn't make much of it but it is something to be aware of. This is my 2nd example of how this is not my speculation or prediction but merely a quantitative representation of the facts.



3rd & Final chart is the daily. One thing I've noticed here at the factory... Not so much this thread anyways but many folks are always asking... 'so is this where I enter?' or.... "should I just buy it right now?" The 34 EMA offers very dynamic support & resistance. I personally don't trade off of EMA's but if you're new it's an excellent visual reminder. I'm not an advocate of indicators but one could really make the case an EMA is not even an indicator but a tool such as FIBS, Trend-lines etc.



Anyways... This is less of a trade recommendation & more of an illustration how price & trend can be broken down & traded in a very simple & uncomplicated manner. For all I know or even care this thing could collapse beginning Monday & totally negate everything. But really you could have said that every single week for the last 2 years this trend has been in place... But you would have been wrong.

Weekly Summary:

So far this week was more productive than last week...we got two winners booked both on USD/JPY for a total of 434.3 pips. Admittedly the position size on these trades was too small...OH well, next time. As well on losing trade on gold for 440 pips. So just about break even in pips but because the position size was incorrect I am at a $9 loss...no big deal.

I am currently holding three open trades
EUR/USD: (short) Stop is moved to break even on this trade so it is risk free. Currently 169 pips in profit. Price has pulled back a bit from the lows and next week is another week...

USD/CAD: (long) Almost the mirror opposite of the EURO trade. Stop is also at break even +, but I am a little more anxious about this stop, as there is really no support level above the stop that is protecting it. This stop was moved as per the method rules. Currently about 44 pips positive.

XAU/USD (gold): (short). Price has broken a 4 year low and is going to close on a weekly basis below this low. That is very bearish in my view. I have an at risk stop placed at October's high, and will hold this through the next series of lower lows and lower highs. I am also a little anxious about this trade as it was a stop and reverse trade that I am not fond of , but they are valuable in a range break situation. Assuming next week follows through, this trade should be in good shape.

Hi eggs,

Thanks again for a very thorough analysis. I don't know what I can add or subtract that would contribute. I am not fond of "predictions" but as you have made none, I cannot find anything of value to add.

There is a clear bullish trend in progress on USD/CAD and that is the basic reason for trading long. However for those who do not look out at such long term trends, there are smaller trade to be made for sure, but it would be helpful that you see a good trend (on what ever time frame you feel comfortable trading) and be patient and wait for the pull back to get in.

I've tried so show here that using just simple observations and the mechanical technique of entries and trade management, that success is as simple as discipline and patience. Whether you aim for the "Home Run" each trade or you are satisfied to get in make your pips and get out, this method of making the "obvious" trade works well and pays well.

This week showed, I was not 100% successful, but most of the trade entries have or are working (for the time being). I encourage all of you "lurkers" to give it a shot...put up something and lets look at it together. I've tried not to be condescending or critical of anyone who posts...I will just provide my view point and listen to yours...perhaps other will also submit a view point...this will help us all see things from different angles and then chose the best way for ourselves.

Happy Halloween everyone, and have a good week end.

hi gspajon I like your trading style and will be watching to see what you do

teb

thanks TEB you're welcome to join in any time.

Hi gspajon.

Nice call on the USCAD. Hope you made your target.